In the statewide races there was a mild surprise when former GOP Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn filed for his old job. He will face Public Regulation Commissioner Jefferson Byrd in the primary. Dem Land Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard drew no primary foe and will be favored for a second term. However, if there is a red tsunami history shows a statewide office could topple to the R's and land commissioner could be the prime one because of Dunn's name ID. 

Aside from statewide races like Guv and AG, it's in the 70 House districts where much of the competition is going to be seen this year and it starts with the June 7 primary. The field was set Tuesday--barring any late withdrawals or disqualifications.

Today we have part one of our two part report on key House primary races and our exclusive analysis. 

House District 5--Rep. Doreen Wonda Johnson, a conservative Dem, has drawn a primary challenge from progressive Kevin Mitchell in McKinley County, a theme we see in a number of D primaries this year. With a vote on a new House Speaker coming next year that theme looms large. No R is running so it's primary winner take all. 

District 7---Republican Rep. Kelly Fajardo has decided to retire from this Valencia County district after serving ten years. There will be no contested primary on either side. Dem Danny Bernal, who recently lost a race for Belen mayor, and Republican Tanya Mirabal Moya both filed and will face off in November. She has a large family in the district that has became more Dem under redistricting. It is expected to perform at 51 percent for the Dem candidate but Valencia has been trending R. A real battleground here and a major win for the Dems if they could pull it off.  

District 8--Another Valencia County District and this one will stay R because Brian Baca, who was appointed to to fill a vacancy, drew no GOP or Dem opponents. No Dem candidate in a metro area House seat? Hmmm.

District 12---Former BernCo Commissioner Art De La Cruz was appointed to fill a vacancy in this ABQ South Valley district but two women who competed with him for the appointment are now running against him in the Dem primary. They are Nicole Olonovich and Melissa Armijo. De La Cruz is a moderate/conservative Dem so a win by either of the women would tilt the district left. No R's need apply. And none did. This one is all D all the time. 

District 17--This is the district held by outgoing Dem state Rep. Deborah Armstrong but has been reshaped from the North Valley and sent over to ABQ's NW side, giving the Republicans a shot at a pick up. The Dem primary candidates are former ABQ City Councilor Cynthia Borrego and labor leader Darrell Deaguero. This will be competitive. Two R's--Ellis McMath, a political associate of ABQ City Councilor Dan Lewis, and Joshua Neal--will duke it out in the GOP primary for a nomination that will be worth having. Dem performance in this one is projected at just 50.7 percent. 

District 19---Dem Kay Bounkeua was appointed to fill a vacancy in this Mid and SE Heights ABQ district but she did not find the job to her liking and is not running. Three Dems have jumped in to replace her--Janelle Anyanonu, Colton Dean and Eric Sutton. The lone R is Kathleen Jackson. The winner of the Dem primary is almost certain to take the prize and keep the district progressive. Dem performance here is over 72 percent. 

Cherise Quezada

District 23--This is the seat held by retiring Dem Rep. Daymon Ely in the Corrales/Rio Rancho area. Redistricting has made it much more Republican. Dem Ramon Montano is the lone D running and Alan Martinez the lone R in a district that may bid adieu to the Dems with only a 43.9 percent performance for them.

District 26--We all know what happened to ABQ Westside state Rep. Georgene Louis but the Dems are expected to keep the district as she departs. The question is will it be a moderate Dem or one more liberal? That could influence the vote for the next House Speaker to succeed Brian Egolf. Former progressive Dem state Rep. Eleanor Chavez is running but is new to this district. She is up against Cherise Quezada, wife of BernCo Commissioner Michael Quezada, who was Georgene Louis' assistant in Santa Fe. Michael Quezada is a moderate Dem. How will Cherise play it? Probably the same. Patrick Sais is the sole runner for the GOP but general election performance here is nearly 63 percent Dem.

District 27--If there's a seat the GOP would love to have back it's this one in the far NE Heights, once a conservative bastion but that elected Dem Rep. Marian Matthews two years ago. Can the R's swing it back? They have two contenders--Bob Godshall who lost to Matthews last time--and Elisa Martinez who ran for the GOP US Senate nod in 2020 and lost. Matthews has been veering right on crime to try to save herself. Much will depend on the national mood in November. If the GOP has the wind at their backs this will be an obvious seat for them to snatch.

DISTIRCT 28--There is a bit of a theme here today, isn't there? The Dems have picked up so many seats in the last several cycles that the R's should get some in play this time. And this is another district where they have a good chance. There is no primary here. Rep. Pam Herndon, who was appointed to fill a vacancy, will meet Republican Nicole Chavez in November. You may know that name from TV news as Chavez's son was the victim of a high profile murder and she's running on a stern anti-crime platform. Herndon gets a June breather but will have her hands full once the fall comes. Dem performance here is 49.5 percent.

District 38--This Socorro area district is one that could also impact the race for House Speaker. Longtime Socorro Mayor Ravi Bhasker, moderate Dem, is seeking the nomination against Tara Jaramillo, a Socorro school board member who is a progressive, The seat has been held by GOP Rep. Rebecca Dow who is giving it up to run for Guv. In redistricting the seat was made more Dem. The R's are now down to a performance rating of about 48 percent. Bhaskar has served as Socorro mayor for an astounding 32 consecutive years--one of the longest such tenures in the nation. Sandra Hammack and educator Melba Aguilar are the GOP primary hopefuls.

District 39--The seat has been on and off for Dem Rudy Martinez since 2005 but Republican Rep. Luis Terrazas won two years ago and is not opposed in the primary. Martinez faces Karen Whitlock in the Dem nomination battle and it should be a good one for the folks in the Silver City/Las Cruces area where this district sits. Republican performance in redistricting fell to only 44 percent so the winner of the Dem primary could oust the incumbent in November. 

District 40--This northern district has already been making news with the primary challenge to Dem freshman State Rep. Roger Montoya by former state Rep. Joseph Sanchez. Montoya is the progressive and Sanchez moderate. Montoya has a tough race here. The SOS site has Gerald Steven McFall as a GOP candidate but the site also lists him as a GOP candidate for the northern congressional seat. Regardless, this one is all Dem all the time.

District 41---In another northern district that include parts of Rio Arriba County Rep. Susan Herrera is coming off a big win with passage of the payday loan bill that lowered interest rates, but moderate Dem and former Probate Judge Marlo Martinez is going to challenge her in the Dem primary. Again, No R's need apply here and none have.

District 42--Yet another moderate Dem challenger--Florence Miera--is trying to oust a progressive incumbent--freshman Rep. Kristina Ortez in this Taos area district. With no R running, it's all on the line here primary night June 7th. Ortez could find Miera a feisty foe who has long ties to the area. 

District 46--Two term progressive Dem Rep. Andrea Romero has drawn three primary challengers and one Republican is also running. The big name for Romero to get past is Henry Roybal, a well-known moderate Dem Santa Fe County Commissioner. The district is heavy D so the primary is where the action is.

District 47--House Speaker Egolf is giving up his Santa Fe seat and has given his blessing to his top aide, Reena Szczepanski, to succeed him. She will do that if she gets past political unknown Francisco Lopez in the primary. No R's are running. 

Wee need to stop here for now. So much action and we'll pick it up tomorrow with more state House contests and some Bernalillo County offices. Thanks to Dem consultant Sisto Abeyta and numerous Alligators for help with this report. 

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