It is the "most significant" event of the special election calendar because the Dem nominee is almost certain to win the election and the remainder of Haaland's second which runs through 2022. No R has won the district since 2006 and the winning margin for the D's has grown dramatically since, with Haaland defeating her 2020 GOP opponent, 58 to 42.  

With all of that in mind we asked one of our Senior Alligators with decades of hands-on experience in state Democratic politics to handicap the Central Committee contest featuring seven Dem hopefuls. This Gator is easily recognizable but for this assessment they asked for and received the cloak of anonymity. 

First, they tell us that at this point there is no clear front-runner and no real indication that any of the candidates has a lock on organizing the Central Committee. But some are stronger than others. Our Gator lists the candidates by current strength:

Randi McGinn: Ageism is her enemy. Perceived as perhaps too old (65) and White and doesn't have solid connections with current SCC members many of whom will be re-elected this weekend. She's running as the presumptive nominee by spending lots of money, sending slick mailers to a wider audience than SCC members. She got off to a rocky start at her own precinct/ward meeting when she was not elected to a position but she did get an "almost endorsement" from House Speaker Pelosi.

State Rep. Georgene Louis: Could be a sleeper. Most see her as smart and thoughtful and for those wanting a younger, woman of color candidate (and continue having a Native American in Congress) she is appealing. She has a ways to go, however, with the SCC but she has story to tell as a teen mom who persisted. 

Victor Reyes: Might also be a sleeper. Young, gay, persistent and articulate. Working hard and knows the SCC process well as a result of his campaign work with MLG. Like most twenty somethings he is aggressive and that may not be the best fit for an SCC that is decidedly older 

Other candidates: State Rep. Patricia Roybal Caballero, community organizer Selinda Guerrero and Francisco Fernandez are not well-known. There's no evidence that they have accomplished any real organizing with SCC.  

The once mighty liquor lobby isn't what it used to be. The bill that would allow restaurants to secure full-scale liquor licenses, not just offer beer and wine, and that allows restaurants to provide home delivery of alcoholic beverages, made it through the House and Senate and is now on the Governor's desk.

Liquor licenses worth well over $300,000 will now dive in value as there will be many more outlets offering liquor.

In the industry's heyday liquor lobbyist Pancho Padilla was banned from the Capitol after famously boasting at a legislative party at La Fonda in 1963 that, “I own the legislature! No more. 

Part of what has happened is the corporatization of the industry. Local families like the Maloofs who were once major industry players are long gone. More and more licenses are owned by corporations like Walgreens. They don't care about the worth of their liquor licenses because they are multi-billion companies.

Allowing home delivery of moderate amounts of alcohol is long overdue, but having more restaurants serve hard liquor while so many already serve beer and wine will not be a big economic driver. According to the industry only about 20 percent of alcohol consumers drink spirits. And making more alcohol available in restaurants is questionable for a state with high rates of alcoholism and DWI.

Still, the bill was a generational change and its main sponsors--ABQ Reps Maestas and Hochman Vigil and ABQ Sen. Ivey Soto--delivered big on their delivery promise. 

A lot of Dem news on the blog today so here's some luv for the R's--the latest podcast of NMGOP Chairman Steve Pearce.