National surveys showing a strengthening in the position of Joe Biden has prompted talk of a Blue Wave that puts him in the White House and perhaps Dem control of the Senate. But what would a wave mean for New Mexico? 

We’re no stranger to them, having had a giant one in 2008 when Obama claimed the presidency and in the 2018 off-year election when the Dems bolstered their control of the state House and put Dems in all of the statewide executive offices. 

If there is a 2020 wave it would mean GOP BernCo Senate seats belonging to Senators Gould and Rue would fall. And Republican John Morton, seeking the open NE Heights seat of GOP Sen. Payne, would lose. It would also mean that the R’s would pick up no state House seats in BernCo, continuing to leave the state’s largest county with only one Republican House member. 

A wave would mean the R’s would not pick up the seat of John Arthur Smith in the SW. It would also mean the Sandoval County Senate seat being vacated by conservative and outgoing Dem Senator John Sapien would fall to liberal Dem Brenda McKenna instead of R John Clark.

A three seat Dem pick up would mean a Senate of 29 Dems and only 13 R's, down from the current 26-16 breakdown. 

In terms of policy a wave could mean a higher likelihood of legalizing recreational marijuana, approving a constitutional amendment to tap the $20 billion Land Grant Permanent Fund for early childhood education and probably fiscal stimulus programs that are more liberal.

For example, the state’s $400 million loan program for businesses impacted by the pandemic has been strangled to death by onerous rules that have roadblocked all but $20 million going to businesses suffering because of the virus-caused economic decline. 

One of the bill's sponsors came with an odd quote about the collapse of the loan program, saying: "Implications about the program that it missed its mark are in bad faith." He further said the unrealistic  standards for the loans was a necessary compromise with Senate conservatives. 

The addition of the more liberal senators could loosen the pursestrings and we could also see less support for keeping budget reserves at extraordinary high levels of 20 percent or more. 

So a blue wave is not only a political development, it likely would have major policy implications as the Senate gave  less resistance to the more liberal House. As for the Governor, she would want to take some surfing lessons to figure out how to ride that Blue Wave.

ABQ Dem Rep. Deb Haaland is taking hits for only agreeing to one TV debate with GOP opponent Michelle Garcia Holmes. That debate will take place this Sunday, Oct. 11 at 4 p.m. But Haaland refused to debate on KOB. That brought this from GOP Chair Steve Pearce:

Is this who we want representing us in Washington—someone who wants our vote yet doesn’t have the courtesy and decency to discuss important issues like rising crime and the ailing economy affecting our state? This is a historic election with so much at stake. Perhaps she’s aware of her left-leaning views and knows they don’t fall in line with traditional New Mexico values. She failed in her obligations as an incumbent to address her constituents. This is disrespectful to the voters, and Haaland doesn’t deserve another term. 

Garcia Holmes was given five minutes of free air time by KOB-TV because Haaland refused to debate.

There was a stir when Dem US Rep. Ben Ray Lujan raised questions about whether he would debate his GOP Senate foe Mark Ronchetti on KOB-TV but he ended up going. The debate back and forth and nothing else--including a month-long run of TV ads--seems to be jolting the contest. 

The latest poll is similar to the ABQ Journal survey from early September in which Lujan led 49 to 40. In a new poll conducted by the Dem-leaning PPP Sept. 30 and Oct.1 Lujan was at 51 percent and Ronchetti at 41. Libertarian Bob Walsh had 3 percent in the survey which had a margin of error of 3.3 percent. Lujan topping the magic number of 50 will not go unnoticed.  

Only one of the three US House races is competitive this cycle and continues to draw heat. That 15 second TV ad endorsing Republican Yvette Herrell by former one term southern Dem Congressman Harry Teague is rubbing some supporters of Dem US Rep. Xochitl Torres Small the wrong way. Former Dem Lt. Governor Diane Denish, a native of Hobbs, says:

This ad is a lie. His endorsement has nothing to do with education, healthcare etc.  It's the old story of follow the money. After Harry voted for cap and trade (opposed by the oil industry) during his term, NM Republicans essentially worked to bankrupt him by pulling their servicing contracts from his Hobbs oil firm. Today his business is still on the ropes. His payoff for the endorsement of Herrell is Republican help to bring his business back. Unlike Xochitl, Harry failed to represent his own industry during his term. He didn't know the district in 2010 and he clearly doesn't know it in 2020. Hope the 15 seconds is worth it for him. 

The southern race is pretty much frozen with very few undecided. The two contenders did a 30 minute debate Wednesday night on KOB-TV (no bombs were dropped) but their main job now is getting their vote out. Massive numbers of absentee ballots are set to be returned as soon as next week.

Former NM GOP Gov. Susana Martinez (remember her?) has surfaced on the campaign trail, with the former two term executive urging BernCo voters to support Republican District Judge Daniel Gallegos, one of her judicial appointments. 

Dem Metro Court Judge Courtney Weaks is trying to advance to District Court and is opposing Gallegos. The note from the ex-Guv got the attention of her campaign with operatives writing in email:

The two hopefuls for the open northern congressional seat--Dem Teresa Leger Fernandez and Republican Alexis Martinez Johnson--conducted a TV debate Wednesday afternoon. Video here. . . In blogging of northern Dem state House candidate Roger Montoya this week we said he is seeking the District 50 seat. Montoya is running in District 40 . . .And we said that Sandoval County Commissioner John Block was eyeing a possible GOP run for Guv in 2022. His first name is Jay, not John.
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2020