It's not unexpected but nonetheless shocking. The New Mexico jobless rate has soared to 17 percent and those are only preliminary numbers. Thousands more will be listed lost as unemployment claims continue to pour in.

In all, more than 97,000 New Mexicans have filed for unemployment since March 13 out of a workforce of 835,800. In February, 45,964 were unemployed, according to Workforce Solutions’ New Mexico Labor Market Review.

The overriding question is whether these Great Depression conditions will be short-lived and whether most of the lost jobs are rapidly regained once the coronavirus crisis is resolved. The uncertainty looms like the Sword of Damocles over a state that was already sluggish before the societal shutdown was ordered.

The emotional pain for those laid off is very real but at least the most serious financial impact is being delayed. Unemployment checks are being boosted with a special $600 a week add-on that will last four months. Also, $1,200 checks will be going out to most Americans. For those losing health insurance the state Medicaid program will pick up the slack and self-employed workers like Uber drivers are for the first time eligible to draw unemployment.

All of that is a thick buffer that will put off the most serious ramifications of the job losses through July. Long-term unemployment would have adverse consequences on mental health, drug use, the crime wave, the state's future growth and more.

GIMMMICK GONE AWRY

State employment agencies nationwide are being swamped by jobless applicants. In New Mexico the Workforce Solutions Department website has seen overwhelming traffic and there are long phone waits even as call center hours are lengthened. But the department under the stewardship of Secretary Bill McCamley didn't help itself when it launched a gimmick that bombed with the public and McCamley's gubernatorial boss.

Sec. McCamley

McCamley and company say they discovered $1.5 million in a department account that was available to spend so they decided to play what one critic called a "a hunger games" contest. The department announced that the first 2,000 small business applicants to respond would each receive $750 checks. Of course, that immediately crashed the department website and sent a tidal wave of criticism toward McCamley who was accused of employing a cynical political gimmick at a time of crisis.

McCamley's gubernatorial boss was not pleased. MLG praised the concept but needled him over the execution. Actually, she let him off the hook because the concept itself was bizarre.

McCamley, a former state representative with no executive experience, is the latest in a decades-long line of politically tinged appointments at Workforce Solutions. Unfortunately for McCamley, his appointment comes at a time that challenges the most experienced administrators. If he can't keep his eye on the ball and lean on those with more expertise, he might find himself among those seeking unemployment checks from the agency he commands.

PINS AND NEEDLES 

Santa Fe is on pins and needles as DC bickers over a federal bailout of state budgets now riddled with massive deficits. New Mexico's $7.6 billion general fund budget had a massive hole blown in it as a result of the coronavirus crisis. If the state doesn't get federal money to plug it, state programs and jobs could be in jeopardy. On the other hand, if the Feds come with $2 billion or so in relief New Mexico would get desperately needed breathing room.

The $2 trillion coronavirus relief measure the Congress approved last month does not allow states to spend any of that money on plugging their deficits. A $500 billion bill backed by the National Governors Association and the Dems does, but R's have yet to agree.

The state Has nearly $2 billion in reserves and could easily resolve a hit of $1.5 billion, but then there's the budget starting in July 2021. They also need reserves for that budget.

During the Great Recession ten years ago DC did send deficit plugging money to the states, making policymakers hopeful for a repeat.

SUMMING UP

So we have temporary relief delaying the most severe pain from unemployment and we stand a decent chance of getting that DC deficit plugging bill. That leaves the oil patch disaster which is sending state revenues plummeting.

Sunday a pact was announced that will have Saudi Arabia and other oil producers cut production to boost prices that have crashed from the mid-50's to the low 20's per barrel. That’s causing oil wells to be shuttered in New Mexico's previously booming SE Permian Basin.

Now that the price war is over if oil can catch a bid in the high 30's and it sticks that would help the state sidestep the worst scenarios that confront us with current prices.

To sum up, NM needs four things now:

--An unemployment spike that turns out to be mostly temporary.

--A bill from Washington to plug the enormous state budget deficit.

--A pop in the oil price that sticks.

--And, most important, a let-up of this virus that has disrupted the entire planet. 

That's a lot to hope for but as we write this Easter Sunday we're reminded that this is the time for renewal and hope. So we hope.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2019