UPDATE: This news broke Monday afternoon:

More than two dozen of New Mexico’s county clerks asked the state Supreme Court on Monday for an emergency order that would allow them to move to a mail-in election for the June 2 primary.The clerks said they otherwise face an impossible choice — putting voters’ and election workers’ lives at risk or violating their oath of office. “The state of New Mexico faces a public health emergency unprecedented in modern times,” the clerks said in an their emergency petition, filed Monday. An attorney for Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver, New Mexico’s chief election officer, also signed onto the petition.

The price of oil might not be the only thing crashing in New Mexico. The turnout for the June 2 primary election could also do a deep dive, according to a number of election watchers.

The coronavirus crisis is pushing poltical news (and interest) to the back burner. Also, there is no spirited Dem presidential contest this year as there was in 2016 when Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton fought a close battle for the state that Clinton narrowly won and that bumped turnout. Throw in the fear that some voters have of going to the polls in the wake of the virus attack and the inability of candidates to have much personal contact with voters and you have a recipe for a low turnout. How low? in 2016, 214,000 voters were cast in the D prez contest. A 25 percent drop would take that to about 160,000.

There is a competitive race for the Dem nomination for the northern congressional district so that could be the spot where turnout holds its own.

Republican turnout is also expected to dip. In 2016, 104,000 voted in the R' spresidential primary, even though Donald Trump had locked up the nomination by the time the action got here. Still, former GOP Bernalillo County Commissioner and City Councilor Michael Wiener predicts the 2020 primary could see a record low percentage of R's going to the polls:

There is not much to get them out. No presidential contest and most Republicans believe the US Senate race is a foregone conclusion, that Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (the Dem nominee) will easily win in November no matter who the R nominee is. I'm afraid the GOP Senate primary is being likened to the  fattening up of a sacrificial lamb.

However, Wiener says there could be a decent  GOP turnout in the southern congressional race due to the competition for the GOP nomination between Yvette Herrell and Claire Chase. However, the crisis has made it difficult to garner any widespread attention and it is going to stay that way into May as the virus escalates and people remain preoccupied with the health threat.

If turnout does indeed tumble, who benefits? Political consultant Steve Cabiedes says:

A low turnout in the legislative primary contests would seem to favor the incumbents. They have the name ID. With little coverage of the campaigns and the difficulty of in-person campaigning because of the coronavirus, it could be difficult for challengers to generate the interest and votes needed to defeat an incumbent.

That scenario would be music to the ears of several state senators who are members of the Senate's conservative coalition and who have been targeted by progressive challengers. That includes well-known names such as Senate Finance Committee Chairman John Arthur Smith and Senators Clemente Sanchez and Mary Kay Papen.

IN-PERSON VOTE STILL ON

Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver, BernCo County Clerk Linda Stover an all other county clerks are going to make a major push for absentee balloting in the primary so voters don't have to mix it up at the polls. There is already a website up where voters can request absentee ballots and begin sending them back May 5.

As for the early in-person voting and Election Day voting, there are no current plans to cancel then and go to an all-mail election. The SOS's office says this is where they stand today:

. . . An all-mail election is not likely for the primary, given the logistical and time constraints. . . As of now, there are no plans to change the date or the procedures of the June 2 primary. . . We’re encouraging the use of absentee ballots as a secure way for people to practice social distancing while also exercising their civic duty. Secretary Toulouse Oliver’s goal is to give eligible voters as many ways to participate in their democracy as possible. 

Our four-week early vote period, plus the use of no-fault absentee ballots, give voters a variety
of ways to participate while also limiting social contact. . .We’re still waiting on the specifics of what help the federal government might give to states and how it can be used, but whatever funds New Mexico receives will be used to ensure all eligible voters can participate in the 2020 elections without jeopardizing anyone’s health and safety.

One serious problem with all-mail elections is the high rate of returned ballots from registered voters who no longer live at the address at which they are registered. However, political consultants we asked do see an eventual move toward all-mail elections here and elsewhere because of the coronavirus crisis.

You can request an absentee ballot from now until May 28th, but the ballot must be received by 7 p.m. June 2nd. More on absentee voting here.

THE RIGHT TONE

Unless you are among the most hardcore partisans, you're probably put off by the fundraising pitches from political candidates during this national emergency. It's not only untimely but unnecessary and often undignified for the candidates to be on the attack against their opponents and asking for money when so many of their constituents are in financial peril. That's why this note from southern Dem Congresswoman Xochitl Torres Small seems to strike the right tone in these troubled times:

We understand this is a challenging time for all of us. If you would like to opt-out of our fundraising emails while this COVID-19 public health crisis continues, that’s completely okay -- please let us know. If you have comments, questions, or ideas regarding COVID-19, please let us know. We appreciate you being part of this campaign, however and whenever you can be!

How about candidates use their fund-rising lists for a month to raise money, not for their campaigns, but for worthwhile groups that assist the tens of thousands of New Mexicans who have lost their jobs or may lose their businesses?

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2019