New Mexico schools were ordered shut down for three weeks because of the coronavirus threat but a veteran state educator tells us that the state Public Education Department is preparing for the possibility that the kids will not come back at all this school year which runs through the end of May.

The predictions are that the coronavirus will peak in about three weeks, around April 6, when classes are supposed to resume. But the virus case count could be much higher then and there could be more hospitalizations. In that event parents are not going to want to send their children back to school and that would necessitate closing them for the year. Of course, if the virus has diminished classes could start back up.

Our educator adds that the PED is looking at a contingency that centers on making up the lost class time over the summer. The state mandates a certain amount of credits for students to advance and lost credits will have to be made up. He says an accelerated summer schedule is one plan to achieve that.

Meantime, an ABQ Public Schools official tells us the schools are being deep-cleaned while closed. A combination of bleach and water is being used on surfaces and rooms are also being fumigated to get at what germs remain.

THE ECONOMIC PAIN

Before all is said and done the economic pain caused by the pandemic may be greater than the suffering inflicted by the disease. Already NM restaurants are trimming hours or closing, forcing layoffs and throwing people onto the unemployment and Medicaid rolls. And that's just after only a week of stress.

The fallout from a multi-month lockdown could send the state sinking into a deep recession something only comparable to the 1930's Great Depression. And don't forget the collapsing oil prices. Those alone could push us towards a significant slowdown, if they persist for months.

Restaurant experts say permanent closures/bankruptcies could accelerate after as little as one month of lockdown since many of them operate on very thin margins. The mom and pop retail shops are also in the firing line as well as an assortment of other service sector businesses that have been emptied of customers who are hunkering down in their homes.

The President is proposing a massive $1 trillion relief package. The Governor's office says some aid has already arrived:

The state has qualified for the Small Business Administration (SBA) Disaster Loan Assistance program to assist businesses negatively impacted by the COVID-19 public health emergency. . .The SBA is offering low-interest federal disaster loans up to $2M for working capital to small businesses and non-profit organizations suffering substantial economic injury. . .The interest rate is 3.75% for small businesses without credit available elsewhere; businesses with credit available elsewhere are not eligible. The interest rate for non-profits is 2.75%.

If the lockdown persists, businesses here will suck up every penny of loan money available to stay afloat. The Federal Reserve has lowered its key interest rate to zero, how about zero percent SBA loans?

American policy makers have made a tremendous gamble, predicting that the virus would result in a massive number of deaths if the lockdown was not enacted. The verdict on that is not yet in, but the economic recession that is poised to engulf the state and nation is right in front of us--at the restaurants, dry cleaners and hotels.

STATE BRIEFING

MLG and other officials will provide an update today on state government activity regarding the coronavirus. It is scheduled for noon and will be live streamed here. Dept. of Health coronavirus information is here.
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TRY. TRY AGAIN

Puelle

ABQ Mayor Keller has a new addition on the 11th Floor. He has hired as Chief of Staff 53 year old Michael Puelle, formerly CEO and lobbyist for Associated General Contractors (AGC) New Mexico.

Among other things, Puelle will "manage and direct the day-to-day operations of the Office of Mayor, supervising a number of areas including public affairs, constituent services, communication, intergovernmental relations. . .

Before AGC Puelle worked with the Setter Group, known for its lobbying on behalf of Native American pueblos.

Puelle replaces government affairs veteran Santiago Chavez as Chief of Staff, making him the third one to hold the post. Maybe the third time is the charm. As for his salary. the Mayor's office did not respond to a request for that info.

Sarita Nair remains Chief Administrative Officer (CAO) for the city, the position mandated by the City Charter to supervise the overall daily affairs of government, including APD.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2019