Tuesday, March 24, 2020

How Long Will It Last? New Mexico Society And Economy Get A Further Crackdown As Governor Battles Coronavirus, Plus: Critics Say Guv's Announcement Missed The Mark In Presentation

Gov. Lujan Grisham (Moore, Journal)
How long? That simple two word, but exceedingly complicated question is now on the lips of every New Mexican as they absorb the shock of further shutdowns of society announced by Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham Monday in a bid to halt the spread of the coronavirus that has claimed over 500 lives nationally but none so far in this state.

Video here. Public Health Order here.

The "stay at home" order takes effect today and expires April 10. That's 17 days on top of the five days the state has already been restricting public movement to keep the number of deaths at zero. But if the health crisis is still seen as threat the order could be extended beyond April 10.

The Governor confirmed a recent report here that the public schools are unlikely to reopen by the state's April 6 deadline.

In announcing the order MLG said citizens are still gathering in a fashion that violates her original order restricting public movement and that's why the closure of all businesses deemed "nonessential" is necessary.

She and her administration can now only hope it works. If an extension of the order is needed, political and economic tensions are likely to overwhelm the government.

There are numerous exceptions to the order, including allowing hotels and RV camps to operate at 50 percent capacity. The grocery stores and take out restaurants stay open but just about all retail outlets are now closed.

The Governor pleaded with New Mexicans to obey the order, knowing that voluntary compliance is a must because widespread state enforcement is nearly impossible:

I need you to heed this order, I need every New Mexican to do their part. Everyone in this state has a social contract for responsibility for one another. If you don’t take this serious, then we can’t reduce the spread of COVID-19.

As of Monday the state reported a total of 85 coronavirus cases with 9 hospitalizations. Five of those  remained hospitalized.

With increased testing the virus is now found in many rural counties but most cases are still in the population centers of the ABQ metro, Santa Fe and Las Cruces.

The fact that there have been no deaths is a double-edged word. It is great news, but could be discouraging citizens from isolating and taking the outbreak as seriously as MLG and health authorities desire.

13 other states now have orders similar to the one MLG put in place. However, none of the states bordering ours has, although each of them has had virus deaths. 

The public health is of paramount importance but the wreckage of the state economy is a close second. If the clampdown is not extended, the damage will be extensive but manageable. A longer lockdown and the state will enter a depression that would exacerbate the state's already serious addiction and crime problems; prompt further depopulation by our younger residents; permanently close an untold number of businesses already teetering before the order; reduce the overall size of the economy and collapse the tax base.

THE ANNOUNCEMENT

The Governor has not hesitated during this crisis, making the tough calls and doing so with able cabinet officials assisting her. She has earned widespread praise for her demeanor and knowledge.  But political observers say Monday's news conference broadcast live on the major network affiliates and streamed online was a miss in a number of ways. We rounded them up.

--The announcement/news conference was widely promoted as starting at 3 p.m. but didn't go off until 3:17 p.m. Citizens fixated on their TV sets were left to wonder what was going on. That wait contrasted with the Governor's precise timing for today's "stay at home" order of 8 a.m.

--She did not appear in a close-up view, but from a distance at various angles depending on where each station positioned their camera. Instead of using a desk, she was at a large podium. That's her default choice but not the one for an announcement of this magnitude. (Think of how a major speech is made from the Oval Office).

--The news conference held at the state House chambers was cluttered with signs posted behind the Governor that were unreadable on television.

--The chamber emits a light echo that her microphone didn't eliminate and that hampered the delivery. Reporters questions were often difficult to understand. It didn't help that the stations did not picture the questioners, just the disembodied voice.

--The Governor went free form with this major announcement, not reading a prepared and concise script to keep her message direct and simple. She wandered into the weeds about the details of the virus, information that is important but not necessary. She never did read the actual public health order she issued which is quite readable and easy for the viewer to grasp.

The presentation, criticized as "amateurish" and "not reassuring" in some social media quarters, begs for examination by her staff and PR experts.

The take of the critics may be dismissed by some as nitpicking but this was one of the most consequential moments in state history--the blocking of the vast majority of New Mexico's social and economic movement. It doesn't get bigger than that and demands the best in crisis communications. How it's presented has an enormous influence on how the public responds. There could be more such moments to come for this Governor. To be effective as possible they will have to be accompanied by more gravitas and professionalism than was in evidence Monday.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2020