Put another billion on the pile--or more. That's the latest financial forecast from Santa Fe for the next budget year that starts July 1. No surprise here. We've been pounding the table over the Permian Basin oil boom, saying state lawmakers need to prepare not for a bust but for a continued boom and decide how to use all that money to solve the generational problems that haunt the state. A dreary reminder of that came this week when New Mexico again landed at last in the nation in the child well-being rankings.

As for oil, the bean counters at the Legislative Finance Committee are counting on this scenario:

West Texas intermediate oil prices, which run slightly higher than New Mexico prices, fell another $5 per barrel earlier this month, to $53 per barrel. Current revenue forecasts for the state assume an average annual New Mexico price of $49.50 per barrel for the budget year that ends June 30 and $52 per barrel for the FY20 fiscal year.

Oil closed at $53.90 Tuesday so the state is right in the sweet spot as it nears the 2020 fiscal year in which the general fund is budgeted at $7 billion. With another billion or more in surplus an $8 billion budget could soon be in the cards. Can they spend it effectively? That's the billion dollar question.

Back on that Kids Count report showing us in the cellar in child-well being, Allen Sanchez, CEO of CHI St. Joseph's Children (CHI) took a lot of heat when he said "institutional racism" is one reason the state is so far behind in providing for its children. But his view will garner further attention because of the latest report:

The annual Kids Count report from the Annie E. Casey Foundation found that 18% of the nation’s children live in poverty, down from the Great Recession. But the same advances weren’t seen in the Southwest, where many children are Native Americans, Latinos and immigrants who have long faced disadvantages. "The nation’s racial inequities remain deep, systemic and stubbornly persistent,” said the annual Kids Count report from the Annie E. Casey Foundation.

The widespread poverty and lagging education among Native American and rural Hispanics is especially troublesome. Bring that down and the state starts climbing in the standings.

Speaking of Indian Country, let's check in on the search for a replacement for the late state senator and Navajo code talker John Pinto who passed this month at the age of 94. Here's our Navajo Gator with an update:

Bowman-Muskett

Joe, two very divergent candidates emerged from McKinley and San Juan counties this week as possible successors for the vacant seat. McKinley County forwarded only one candidate to the governor for her consideration--former county commissioner Carol Bowman-Muskett, a McKinley county native. The San Juan county commission also voted to send just one candidate--former county commissioner Wallace Charley, a San Juan County native and a former NM state rep from long ago. Both are Navajo.

Muskett is from the small Navajo community of Mexican Springs. Her family has served in various local chapter leadership roles. Charley recently lost his bid for a second term to a former commissioner and teacher--GloJean Todachene. 

A betting man would take odds on Muskett. She would fit the bill nicely for an appointment from fellow Democrat Lujan Grisham. Muskett voted against county Right to Work legislation and openly opposed county Second Amendment Sanctuary County legislation. She is also vocal in chapter elections, serving her first term as Mexican Springs chapter secretary. 

Whoever gets the appointment can expect a 2020 Dem primary challenge, andthe line could be long. Names circulating are former NM Rep Ray Begaye, his brother former Navajo Nation President Russell Begaye (who lost his bid for a second term as president), current Navajo Nation Chief of Staff Paulson Chaco, Shannon Pinto, the granddaughter of the late senator, and a variety of officials from Navajo chapters and local governments. The district is heavy Dem and the R's would b hard-pressed to take the seat.

THE BOTTOM LINES 

The contest for the Vintage ABQ tickets conducted on the Tuesday blog didn't exactly mesh with the readers. It turns out naming the new downtown BernCo government headquarters--whose renovation costs are running 50 percent over the initial estimate--did not unlock the imagination much. We end up owning that, but are going to make up for it  by giving away not just one set of $170 tickets to the Vintage ABQ Grand Tasting Friday night, but two pairs of ticks.

So Isabelle Zamora of ABQ who suggests the name "The Establishment" gets a pair. Can't you just see a giant neon light spelling that out over downtown? And ABQ's Rebecca Leppala also wins a pair of ticks. She suggested that the building be called "The Big SunBern." Okay, it doesn't knock your socks off but when you put the sun in there it gives off a warm New Mexico vibe. As for "Bern," well, taxpayers kinda got burned with that cost overrun and we shouldn't let the politicos forget it.

Education blogger Seth Saavedra came with a good one: "Center for the Bureaucratic Arts." Nice, Seat, but bloggers are not eligible. Besides, don't you owe us lunch or something?

Enjoy the grand tasting ladies, and thanks to all those who took time to respond.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2019