Thursday, May 02, 2019Back In The Weeds: Voting Data Shows What R's Need To Retake Southern CD, We Name the Top Three Dem Congress Hopefuls In The North And Trump Winning NM? Really?
Longtime political consultant Stephen Clermont has been running the data in that '18 race in which Xochitl Torres Small scored a rare win for the Dems in the district and comes with this from his DC shop that could have the R's thinking hard about their 2020 strategy: Joe, Among the regular/consistent voter--the person who voted in 2016 and 2018--Republicans outnumbered Democrats. Xochitl was able to win because of the Democratic edge of people who voted in 2018 but didn’t in 2016 (a pattern in some of the ABQ House districts as well). The dropoff voter was not more Republican in the second congressional district. For a Republican to win next year, it wouldn’t be from a mass group of Republicans who sat out the 2018 election for various reasons (dislike of Trump etc.) It would have to be from a GOP surge of voters who did not vote in 2016 or 2018 (if they exist) to match the new voters registering Democratic at a higher rate than they are Republican or a rightward shift to the GOP among independent voters based on issues like immigration, Other than that, neither party has a clear edge among the people who declined to participate last year. That analysis will be of interest to former State Rep. Yvette Herrell, the '18 GOP nominee who is again seeking the nomination to challenge Rep. Torres Small. The R's were already planning on crafting an immigration message to appeal to conservative Democrats and independents. Clermont's analysis reveals that strategy is even more vital for them. IN THE NORTH
One thing isn't changing--no R's need apply. This district is deep blue so winning the Dem nomination next June is nearly tantamount to winning the November election. Here's what we're hearing: Santa Fe County District Attorney Marco Serna is all but a lock to get in the Dem race and a formal announcement could come this month. He will be a top tier candidate, given his election as DA and a famous political name, that could both help and hurt.
Outed CIA spy Valerie Plame is "sure to get in" says one of our Alligators of the northern persuasion And they see her star rising now that PRC Commissioner Valerie Espinoza has declined to run. Her national profile gives her entree for national fund-raising.
The race may get very crowded but we already see a winnowing because the names out there being mentioned by the Great Mentioner are not well-known and not expected to be able to compete financially. So our top tier for this race, in no particular order, is: Leger, Serna and Plame. They are your Big Three a year out. TRUMP AND NM  Let's put it this way the likelihood of Trump carrying the state is about as likely as Hector Balderas growing hair. Or Howie Morales seeing his name in the newspaper. Or PNM asking to lower your electric bill. Or. . . well. . . you get the idea. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.   (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2019 |
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