Consultants, Alligators, Wall-Leaners and Hangers-on all agree that women continue to generate most of the energy in the Democratic Party and that it could have an impact on who will be selected to the northern Congressional seat being vacated by Rep. Ben Ray Lujan who is leaving it to run for the US Senate.

They also say they are getting an early vibe that the DC Dems are pushing for a woman, a Latina in particular, to take the seat and become the first woman to ever represent the district since it came into being in 1982.

The most prominent Democratic Hispanic woman weighing a bid is Public Regulation Commissioner Valerie Espinoza. She has plenty of street cred, having secured elections to both the PRC and as Santa Fe county clerk. However, some progressives are wary of her and look to a political newcomer like Renee Villarreal, a Santa Fe city councilor, to be their contender. A state representative who is a close friend of Sandoval County Treasurer Laura Montoya says she is also seriously eyeing the contest. Espinoza has also confirmed her interest in the race. Montoya has also, says a close friend. Villarreal has not confirmed.

Among the non-Hispanic women candidates, former CIA operative Valerie Plame, who has said she is considering a Senate run, is also now weighing a bid for the northern House seat.

The Great Mentioner has not mentioned any other prominent Hispanic women as possibles yet. But with the national Dems having considerable sway over fund-raising for a congressional seat, others could be encouraged.

Whatever the gender or race, the field for the open seat will be jam packed and if history is any guide the lucky winner could be poised for even bigger things. Let's take a look.

In the first race for the newly formed district in 1982 Bill Richardson won the Dem nomination and went on to win the seat. He held it until President Clinton named him UN Ambassador. In 2002 he would be elected Governor, with his first taste of political success  having come in the northern seat.

In that 1982 primary Tom Udall came in fourth in a field of four but his luck would turn in 1998 when after serving as attorney general he took the prize. In 2008 he parlayed the House seat into one in the US Senate. Again, the northern district was a political launching pad.

Ben Ray Lujan replaced Udall in the seat in 2008 and now 12 years later appears to have a pretty good shot at becoming the state's newest US Senator next year.

With that record of success no wonder the possible northern field is getting as crowded as the one at the burning of Zozobra.

HOW MUCH?

Several Dem consultants put the price tag of a run for the northern congressional nomination at about $750,000 to $1 million. Of course, that does not include the ubiquitous outside PAC money that will come in for the leading hopefuls.

FIRST IN 

Nothing like getting some grief on your first day in a race. . .

Rio Rancho reader Mitchell Freedman thinks there is some trouble on the horizon for Dem State Rep. Joe Sanchez of Alcalde who was the first candidate to announce that he would seek the Dem nomination for the northern seat:

State Rep. Joe Sanchez may be the first into the race for Ben Ray Lujan's congressional seat, but he will likely be the first to leave. Sanchez was one of the six Democrats in the State House who voted to keep New Mexico's anti-abortion laws on the books, just in time for the US Supreme Court to gut or overturn Roe v. Wade. Sanchez voting against the abortion bill is a deal breaker for most modern-minded Democrats.

Meantime, reader Arcy Baca writes of the Sanchez candidacy:

I am very excited to support him as well as my Baca family. He is more qualified than any of the others thinking about running. He comes with extreme knowledge and ethics. That's something lacking in DC.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out. Sanchez does not have to make a final decision on giving up his state House seat until next year. We suspect there will be a lot of comings and goings in the big field that is forming.

THE BOTTOM LINES

NM House Speaker Brian Egolf has ruled out a run for the northern congressional seat so all the would-be Speakers can return to their chairs. . .The Progressive Change Campaign Committee endorsed Deb Haaland in last year's general election not the primary as we had it in our first blog draft Tuesday. . .

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2019