Our Election Night coverage on KANW 89.1 FM ABQ/Santa Fe and on kanw.com begins at 6:30 p.m. Catch the stream here.

ELECTION DAY UPDATE: Color it blue but not a blue wave. Dems voting 51% to 34% over R's so far with 527,000 total votes cast as of 1:30 PM, says SOS. Quality polling models assumed that. Means we should still have close races in southern congress contest and land commissioner contest. And what kind of turnout among independents will we see in the end? And did they go blue?Total turnout should surpass 608,000 cast in 2010 midterm. Headed toward 625 area? That's higher but not overwhelmingly so. Election Night coverage at 6:30 on KANW-FM 89.1 and kanw.com. 

Turnout. Turnout. Turnout. That's the word being repeated over and over today like a Buddhist mantra by nervous political operatives. Only unlike the religious practitioners they are finding little peace of mind. Instead the word evokes both fear and hope in La Politica on this Election Day '18.

Usually there is a pretty good idea about how many voters will cast ballots--critical to forecasting the fortunes of the hottest political races and planning campaign strategy. Not today. Not in the age of Trump. That odd happenstance has grizzled veterans of campaigns past commiserating with fresh-faced political newbies. Everyone is equalized when uncertainty prevails.

Turnout for a midterm election such as this should be in the vicinity of 625,000 to perhaps 650,000 on the high side. But the massive early voting--430,000--has left everyone wondering how many New Mexicans will show up today. A turnout of 200,000 and the polling and turnout models are fine. You start heading toward a total turnout of over 670,000 and the polls and playbooks will look as useful as yesterday's newspaper.

ABQ Dem State Rep. Moe Maestas says if turnout blows the doors off and goes over 700,000--and he doesn't expect that--you could have a towering blue wave washing over this enchanted land, pushing both strong and weak Dems into office.

GOP Chairman Ryan Cangiolosi says he isn't freaking out about turnout, declaring that the GOP will turn out voters today and keep pace with the Dems even if turnout rockets. He says there is "enthusiasm on both sides."

If forced to make a guess at the risk of being denied their green chile for a year, most of the political pros will say we will not see an extraordinary number tonight. But who really knows? Nobody.

LAST STOPS

Dem Guv hopeful Michelle Lujan Grisham will make campaign stops around ABQ for most of the day today, including at the Barelas Coffee House. D ABQ congressional contender Deb Haaland will accompany her. Both candidates have established big polling leads with women voters.

Republican Steve Pearce is also in ABQ today. He will be making radio appearances in the morning and be shaking hands at the Daskalos polling station on Menaul at noon.

PREDICTIONS!

Diane Snyder

You have to have them on Election Day or, well, it wouldn't be Election Day. Here's a couple that grabbed our attention, some of which were made on our Election Eve Special Monday:

--Former ABQ GOP State Senator Diane Snyder says it's no problem for GOP State Rep. Jimmie Hall. She says his "solid reputation" will thwart a big money attempt by the Dems and candidate Melanie Stansbury to take him out this year in the far ABQ NE Heights district. Rep. Maestas predicts Stansbury will prevail because of her superior ground game that includes dozens of volunteers.

--Firefighters union leader Diego Arnecon, an ardent Lujan Gisham backer, comes with the highest margin for a win by her that we've seen--57-43--over Republican Steve Pearce. He also says his turnout prediction of over 675,000 will have to come through for her to reach that percentage. The GOP's Cangiolosi is downplaying the polls and predicts a much closer race.

--ABQ attorney and longtime politico Greg Payne is now a Dem but he predicts the southern congressional race will be a surprise when the race isn't especially close, predicting that R Yvette Herrell will beat Dem Xochitl Torres Small 52-48. R Snyder isn't so sure. She says the race may not be settled until all votes are counted and she's not certain who will win that down-to-the-wire battle.

HERRELL HERITAGE

The late news that GOP congressional hopeful Yvette Herrell is an enrolled member of the Cherokee Nation was a bolt from the blue. We asked her campaign for more details:

Although the degree of blood relation is minimal Ms. Herrell was certified by the Eastern Oklahoma Regional office as being a member of the Cherokee Nation. While she has not ran on this platform she is proud to be enrolled as a member of the Cherokee nation.

Herrell will be in Alamogordo tonight at the Elks Club to watch the returns come in with fellow Otero County R's. Xochitl Torres Small will gather with Dems at the Las Cruces Convention Center.

Dem State Auditor candidate Brian Colón is taking a pass when it comes to the Democratic celebration tonight at the ABQ Hotel where Michelle Lujan Grisham and other candidates will party. Colón is having a chicharrones party at his ABQ home. Will he save some for Michelle?

Steve Pearce and the Republicans will have their party tonight at the ABQ Crowne Plaza hotel.

SORRY, HECTOR

Udall and Monahan

The on again off again speculation about whether Dem US Senator Tom Udall will seek re-election in 2020 is on again now that this election is ready be put to bed and the political class boots up for the next one.

Udall, according to those who claim to know, is no longer weighing the matter and is back on the running again bandwagon. That might make the heart of Attorney General Hector Balderas sink as he’s seen as a possible leading Dem Senate nominee should Udall decide to forego a run.

Udall will be 72 in 2020, not old at all by Senate standards. Just think, if he runs and wins in 2020 he will probably earn the coveted nickname of "Senator Pine Box," meaning the only way he leaves the Senate is in a pine box.

ELECTION NIGHT COVERAGE

Results from the record-setting early vote are going to hit early, shortly after 7 p.m. Don't miss it! 

We look forward to having you with us tonight on KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com for our 30th year of Election Night coverage. We had a great panel for our Election Eve Special and they'll all be back tonight at 6:30 for the big night. We'll also welcome back Catherine Trujillo, a business consultant and VP of the Taylor Ranch Neighborhood Association as well as Republican Barry Bitzer who has been around state politics for decades.

This is going to be a night of many close races when expert guidance will be essential and we'll have it for you on your radio dial and Internet stream. See you tonight and back here Wednesday with all the results and, of course, the inevitable surprises.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018