Recent volatility has the worry warts fretting over the price of oil and what that could mean for the big projected state budget surplus. However, "Dr. No" is not among them.

In fact, Dr. No, aka, conservative Senate Finance Committee Chairman John Arthur Smith, is with the yes crowd and predicting that when lawmakers gather for a sixty day session in Santa Fe come January they should have at least an extra $1.5 billion on the table. That's up 25 percent from from the $1.2 billion that the state has been projecting:

"We’ve been anticipating $1.2 billion in new money for next year, but we could get another shot in the arm from next month’s lease sale,” Smith said. “I’m guessing it could generate $250 million more for New Mexico, putting us near the $1.5 billion ball park.”

Dem House Speaker Brian Egolf told us last month the surplus would total anywhere from $1.4 billion to $2 billion, a mammoth increase, considering the entire current General Fund budget is about $6.3 billion.

Dr. No could still be on the low side, but regardless of where the surplus ends up the argument will be the same: How much of that cash can be spent on budget items that will "recur" each year. For example, public school spending such as teacher pay hikes or adding state employees.

While the austerity hawks want much of the surplus to go for only one time spending, what if they're overly cautious and the budget surpluses accumulate at these levels for four years or more? What is the plan then? You can't put that kind of money away for a rainy day unless you think you're going to get a storm that would sink Noah's Ark. Surely that's something for the Governor-elect and her new budget team to think about.

STATE SENATE '20

Alan Hall

It's not too early for prospective hopefuls to be eyeing the 2020 races for state Senate.

Our speculation that GOP senators in the ABQ metro could be vulnerable because of the blue wave that washed through the area this year has already surfaced a Dem challenger to one of those R's. He's Alan Hall, an attorney with the Rodey law firm:

Joe, you speculated about the 2020 re-election prospects of Republican state senators in the Albuquerque area. I am going to run for the District 10 seat, currently held by Republican Senator Candace Gould. I am ready to invest a fair amount of money, and a great deal of time.

Hall, 65, practices in the areas of municipal bonds and general corporate work. He's been practicing in in the state for nearly 30 years.

His quest to unseat Sen. Gould, 60, who was elected to her first term in 2016, is no pipe dream. Look how close her contest was with Democrat David Simon in the swing district that takes in a  chunk of the liberal ABQ North Valley and extends into the city of Rio Rancho:

Gould 50.92% 10,530
Simon 49.08% 10,151

Sen. Gould

Sen. Gould, the executive director of the Heart Gallery of NM which helps foster children, is married to lobbyist Leland Gould, 62, whose chief client is Andeavor, parent company of Western Refining. The company makes generous donations to legislators.

In 2013, the Goulds made the blog news when they hosted a high dollar New Year's Eve party for Governor Martinez. They have remained close to her political machine, although with the Dems taking over the lobbying corp is sure to be more cozy with them.

It wouldn't take much of a blue wave for Gould to be ousted. If Trump is the presidential nominee and the metro remains negative on him, that alone could be enough.

Gould is not known as a hard right conservative but she is conservative nonetheless. Will she (and the other metro GOP senators) soften some now that attorney Hall has put his picture in the window and other Dems may be waiting in the wings?

We'll be watching.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018