Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Take Two: Second Guv TV Debate Has MLG Bringing Trump To Table And Pearce Surfacing Big Bill; Analysis And Two Views, Plus: RGA Makes Ad Buy For Pearce And About That Early Vote

With three weeks to go the 2018 gubernatorial candidates went to work to motivate their respective political bases at last night's second televised debate on KOB-TV. In doing so there were no faux attempts to preserve an aura of chumminess between the duo. Both took the gloves off and got down to business. 

Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham brought to the table Donald Trump to get her fans out of their seats and into the voting booths. Republican Steve Pearce surfaced former Governor Richardson and his "corrupt cronies" to scare voters into marking their ballots for him.

MLG has the obvious advantage of a big registration edge. She has held back on hitting Trump but last night it was clear that he will be her poster boy to close the deal. Right at the top she said the election offers two starkly different visions:

One is straight out of Donald Trump’s failed playbook that is leaving New Mexico families behind. The other is my vision, that taps into the determination and optimism of each and every one of us--working together to overcome our challenges.

Lujan Grisham recently released a TV ad that for the first time used Trump against Pearce.  She can take the prize if she can carry her anti-Trump ABQ congressional district by 10 points, a feat she has done before, and banks usually reliable Dem landslides in Santa Fe and Taos counties.

For his part, Pearce, who had been criticized after the first debate for failing to carry the corruption narrative against MLG and Richardson, did not hesitate this time. He said the state should reject "going back to the Richardson era of corruption and cronyism" and that we "suffered enough embarrassment through that. . .we can change our culture."

The problem Pearce ran into was the past eight years under GOP Governor Susana Martinez, not Richardson. That was another name that MLG brought up for the first time before a statewide audience. She attacked the outgoing and unpopular Martinez for presiding over a CYFD riddled with vacancies and for tampering with the behavioral health system with damaging results. And when it came to crime she threw former GOP ABQ Mayor Richard Berry to the wolves.

Perhaps Pearce's best moment was when he emotionally recited some of the horrific child abuse cases that have haunted the state. He said such crime would not stand in his governorship, but in back of him was the ghost of Susana Martinez--not Richardson.

TWO VIEWS

Two opposing views on the debate now. First from Dem political veteran and attorney Greg Payne who scored it for MLG:

Lujan-Grisham won. She was focused, precise, hard-hitting and partisan. Pearce was less focused and didn't go after her in any significant way until the close. He made a few oblique references to alleged corruption under Richardson and during his closing statement to alleged wrongdoing by Lujan-Grisham while she was Secretary of Health under him. But prior to that closing, Pearce felt compelled to throw shade at Gov. Martinez for alleged corruption involving state contracts for behavioral health services.

Bottom line: The NM GOP was on defense. The debate brought reality into the political klieg lights. After eight years of Martinez and eight years of a GOP mayor in ABQ, Republicans can no longer blame "liberal Santa Fe Democrats" for the challenges facing New Mexico. Lujan-Grisham seized on that reality--with glee.

A longtime GOP operative saw it differently:

This debate was more fiery than the last one. His supporters needed this. Both did well on substance. MLG likes to flood the audience with tons of stuff. Pearce’s style isn’t to do that. Neither made any mistakes. But MLG’s closing statement indicates that some of the Pearce charges of cronyism and corruption might be starting to hit. Pearce’s closing statement indicates that he’s going to make the final stage of this campaign about MLG’s failures and that she isn’t qualified to be governor. 

Pearce did not harp on the corruption theme but he raised it enough to reinforce his campaign ads, something he did not do in the first debate. The message is out there. Last night he helped advance it. Now we wait to see if it works. 

RGA APPEARS

The Republican Governors Association made a somewhat surprise appearance in the Guv race Tuesday. The group has bought $339,000 in TV ads for Pearce, giving him his first healthy chunk of outside PAC money. something MLG has been getting from the get go from national Dem interests.

The RGA ad will be an attack on Lujan Grisham but several of the Alligators said the ad buy could also indirectly help southern GOP congressional candidate Yvette Herrell who is locked in an intense battle with Dem contender Xochitl Torres Small. The more votes that come out for Pearce in his southern district the better it will be for Herrell, the reasoning goes. Herrell is being heavily outspent by national Dems.

And Pearce finally released his long awaited tax return for 2017 but the release turned out to be skimpy and that had the Dems pounding away, pointing out that MLG has released five years of returns and much more info than Pearce has:

Pearce reported earning $431,114 in adjusted gross income last year . .  .(He) filed jointly with his wife, reported $124,322 in income from his congressional salary and claimed several allowable tax exemptions and deductions. Pearce had come under pressure from state Democrats to release his tax returns. . Pearce had pledged to release his tax returns earlier this year if his general election opponent did likewise. However, he released only his 2017 state and federal tax return cover sheets--not the attached tax schedules--along with the required congressional financial form from 2017 that he had filed earlier this year. 

The race for Governor is rated Lean Democrat

EARLY VOTE

The statewide early vote total through October 15 is 22,702. The Dems dominate. The indys lag. With our projected total turnout of 600,000 the turnout thus far represents 3.8 percent of the electorate. But it's the D spike in Dona Ana County that has them buzzing. One of our Senior Alligators of the Dem variety says an absentee vote drive by Dems pushing southern congressional candidate Torres Small is a likely reason for the Dem spike there. Agreed.

NO MAIL CALL

It seems the mail is late for reader Bruce Thomson:

Joe: I just got back from a 3 week trip out of town. The house sitter collected a 16 inch pile of mail for us in which there was not one single piece of campaign junk mail. This raises 3 questions: 1) Am I still registered? 2) If not junk mail, what are the candidates spending their huge sums of money on? and 3) What am I going to burn in the wood stove on these cold dark nights? 

The political mail has been somewhat of a trickle. But as we write this the mailboxes are filling up now that in-person early voting is ready to kick off this Saturday.

So don't worry, Bruce. We think you'll have plenty of fuel for that piñon fire.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018