The streak stops at two. That's the number of months GOP Guv candidate Steve Pearce won consecutively in his battle with Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham. But his momentum was interrupted in September. MLG claimed the month on the strength of the first Journal poll showing her beating her rival 50% to 43%. Throw in her victory at the media event of the month--the first televised debate--and you have a September comeback.

Lujan Grisham also took June when she handily won the Dem primary but July and August went to the southern congressman whose superior media and messaging set the narrative for the summer months and prevented him from getting blown out of the race early, a possibility that was shadowing his candidacy. The duo are now tied 2 to 2 in months won and lost. Now we start October.

Absentee ballots go out October 9 and in-person early voting that will attract the majority of voters before actual Election Day November 6 kicks off October 20. This will be the defining month for the contenders.

Only 34 percent of the total votes cast in the '16 presidential election in the state were cast on election day. The early turnout may be lower for this mid-term election but such voting has truly changed the campaign dynamic.

HEAT GOING UP 

As expected, negative campaigning has intensified as the days of reckoning draw ever closer. How about that ad where the Pearce camp attacks Santa Fe attorney Diego Zamora, the dying cancer patient? In his own ad Zamora defended MLG against corruption charges from a Pearce TV hit about Delta Consulting, the healthcare group she co-founded. Zamora tells viewers that rather than being corrupt, as Pearce claims, she and Delta were a "godsend" for his health care.

Pearce's response ad comes at Zamora for being the attorney for former Democratic State Senator Phil Griego when he faced corruption charges for which he was eventually jailed. That was the weaker part of the ad. It then comes with the tough stuff. The ad points out that Zamora, who grappled with a crack cocaine addition in the 90's, was disbarred for 20 months in 2001when he was found to have stolen money from clients. It' a tight 15 second hit that reads this way:

The man in Grisham's ad defending her corruption — same lawyer who defended politician Phil Griego, convicted of corruption. Tied to Richardson cronies. Suspended by the court for embezzling money. If he's defending Grisham, she's corrupt beyond doubt.

Now MLG's campaign comes with a a response ad decrying Pearce's attack on cancer victim Zamora, declaring it "reprehensible" and a "smear."

Who would smear a man with stage IV pancreatic cancer just to win a political campaign? Steve Pearce. It's reprehensible. . . .

Geno Zamora, the Dem Santa Fe attorney well known in political circles and the brother of Diego Zamora, reacted to the ad this way:

Grotesque desperation does not become you, Mr. Pearce. I pray that you learn to demonstrate the strength, courage, and dignity that my brother has shown in much tougher circumstances than you face today.

NO LINES CROSSED?
The Pearce attack has drawn guffaws from some observers but for most voters it's just another day at the office. In a political milieu where the narrative and the rules are no longer set by television or newspapers--but the bustling and often belligerent on-line media--nothing is off limits. Even so, a number of longtime observers we ran this controversy by did not think Pearce crossed any lines with the Zamora hit. Independent consultant Steve Cabiedes opined:

The real problem is the decision of the Lujan Grisham campaign to have an attorney with so much ethical baggage respond to an ethics attack by Pearce. Did they not vet him?There was no other cancer patient who used the Delta high risk insurance pool who could have done the ad? That was an unforced error. Zamora's illness is tragic but this is politics. If those stricken with cancer were exempt from any criticism in response to their attacks on political candidates, we would have nothing but cancer patients making charges. 

And so it goes when playing at the highest peaks for the power of La Politica.

HERRELL'S SURPRISE

The hot contest for the southern congressional seat being vacated by Republican Pearce has taken a very unusual and surprising turn. In the first time in years a competitive, major party congressional candidate is up with a TV ad about abortion.

That's an issue that has been in hibernation in general election campaigns with neither Dems or R's especially anxious to ignite passions over a matter that has been legally resolved and with a majority of voters taking the pro-choice position.

But conservative State Rep. Yvette Herrell is having none of that. In an effort to push a higher voter turnout among her large Republican base Herrell takes direct aim in the ad at Dem nominee Xochitl Torres Small:

Xochitl supports taxpayer funded abortion--and abortion in the last months of pregnancy when babies feel pain. Xochitl even worked for Planned Parenthood, and in Washington she'll work for Nancy Pelosi to push her radical agenda, Xochitl Torres Small--extreme liberal. Extremely wrong for us. 

That ad will obviously resonate with Christian conservatives in the Bible Belt of the southern district in the eastside counties. However, it could also help Herrell with socially conservative Hispanic Democrats across the district--Apodaca Democrats--and slow the expected Hispanic surge for Torres Small.

Torres Small needs a larger than usual turnout in the more liberal Las Cruces area to pull off the upset in the district which has been owned by the R's. Herrell knows that and is trying to pump turnout up among the long neglected, but large pro-life crowd to counter her. Not coincidentally that higher R turnout would also benefit Steve Pearce in the district where he is expected to post a large win.

HITTING STRIDE

Meanwhile, Torres Small seems to finally be hitting her stride after a so-so start to her media campaign. In her latest spot she cites the long drives many in the heavily rural southern district face when dealing with medical issues. It's a bread and butter issue that brings her a bit closer to the Democratic base, even as it does not offend conservatives.

But the initial contradiction we have seen in the Torres Small candidacy remains. Her careful effort to position herself as a moderate Democrat and not suffer a landslide in the Eastern counties is easily undone by Herrell, as seen in the abortion spot. Torres Small, a water rights attorney who is a former staffer for liberal Senator Tom Udall and married to liberal State House Dem Nathan Small, is indeed a liberal but one in hiding.

The path to victory for her may be to add a dash of Beto O'Rourke liberalism to her agenda. That is how she can increase turnout. (Why not bring the El Paso congressman into Cruces for a rally?)

Right now she suffers an authenticity gap with Herrell as she shies away from her true political identity. That said, a Torres Small candidacy could better thrive in a high turnout presidential year. Maybe she's playing the long game and setting her sights on 2020.

A KAVANAUGH BUMP?

Could Torres Small and other Dem candidates in winnable but uphill battles get a Kavanaugh bump? Dems are hoping that higher turnout will begin to manifest itself as Republicans struggle with the Supreme Court nomination of Brett Kavanaugh and the sexual assault allegations that surround him.

A demonstration in ABQ Friday to protest the nomination drew about 100. Not too shabby. If there is a turnout bump by voters upset over the Kavanaugh imbroglio consultants say it would be mostly in the metro areas and media centers of ABQ, Santa Fe and Las Cruces and in that order.

LYONS VS. RICHARD

Republican Pat Lyons is up with the first TV ads in his race for state land commissioner against Dem Stephanie Garcia Richard and she's trying hard to keep up:

Our state came up over $40 million short in revenue under my opponent's watch. Now I need your help to make sure we don't come up short against his big television buy. We need $5,033 right now to go up on TV. Donate $27 and help make sure our ad is seen on TV! Our opponent just purchased over $130,000 in air time but with your help, we can do more!

Lyons is also getting outside help. NM Strong, a PAC financed by big oil, including Chevron, is financing media against Garcia Richard. Earlier this month it reported over $500,000 in cash on hand.

We have the land commission race rated a toss up.

MONICA UPDATE

Attorney General Hector Balderas is seeking a second, four year term this cycle and has been busy in the news release department. One of his latest announces that he is reviewing the arrest of ABQ GOP State Rep. Monica Youngblood who was recently found guilty of aggravated DWI. The AG says the video of that arrest raises questions about Youngblood attempting to use her legislative position to influence the arresting officer.  It's against the law for a lawmaker to use their office to get a personal benefit.

Youngblood is opposed by Dem Karen Bash in her NW district. The Dem PACS are sure to use the AG's announcement, along with lapel video of the DWI arrest, as key points against her in an effort to flip the seat. Meantime, Balderas has some catching up to do to "out Monica" his GOP foe. Michael Hendricks has called for the resignation of Youngblood, the only Republican candidate to publicly do so.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018