The Democratic Governors Association came with a big late August TV buy blasting Pearce but has since disappeared. That likely signals that their polling shows Lujan Grisham with a lead the DGA considers healthy.

The NEA PAC is up with a big buy for Lujan Grisham. But there is no third party money on the air for Pearce. That stings.

The polling is no doubt what hurt Pearce's September fund-raising. The Sept 7-13 Journal survey had the race 50 to 43 against him. Donors pay attention.

The Lujan Grisham camp remains wary of Pearce as they should of the wily political veteran. He has just a couple of weeks to come up with something that could finally pick the lock for him. Money is not the problem. It's the clock.

The Governor's race is ranked Lean Democrat.

NO TOGETHERNESS

The two Guv candidates have been strangers to one another after a couple of joint appearances back in the summer and a mid-September TV debate. But only two joint appearances--two TV debates--are definitely on the calender for the remainder of the campaign. Both sides blame the other. Pearce says MLG has been ducking out of forums as she nurses a polling lead. Her camp says Pearce has been fiddling with his schedule, causing two joint appearances to be canceled. Whatever the case, this Guv run will feature few side by side appearances.

LAND ACTION

In the only other statewide race clearly in play besides the Guv run, Dem Stephanie Garcia Richard and Republican Pat Lyons seem low on cash for the final stretch. But there is a caveat. While Lyons reports just $55,000 in cash on hand he spent $188,000 on TV and mail in September. And he can expect hundreds of thousands in support from PACS funded by the oil boys. Garcia Richard reports $41,000 in cash after making only modest media buys. She will need the enviro PACS to help her take Lyons out.

The land commissioner race is rated a Toss Up

AUDITOR ACTION

In the state auditor's contest that conceivably could get into play, Democrat Brian Colón and appointed GOP State Auditor are pretty close in cash on hand. Johnson had $120,000 to Colón $160,000. However, Colon outraised Johnson for the month--$64,000 to $16,000.

On the campaign trail, Johnson has been calling into question Colón's ethics. He'll probably do the same with his TV buy, but without something new and inflammatory this one goes in the Dem column. The race is rated Likely Dem.

STATE HOUSE RACES

GOP State Rep. Monica Youngblood reported $59,000 in cash at the end of September. Dem Karen Bash improved her game somewhat and has $25,000 for the final innings in the NW ABQ district. But as we've said before the hits on Monica are going to have to come from the labor union PACS over her aggravated DWI conviction and refusal to take a breath test. If they do come in and do a good job, the odds are Monica is out. If the Dems hesitate in the attack, she could sneak in.

In a hot ABQ NE Heights contest, Republican Brad Winter is being outscored in the money department. He reports $18,000 in cash compared to Day Hochman's $52,000. This is a swing district and with those numbers the race is now rated Lean Dem.

Natalie Figueroa and R John Jones are basically tied in the cash on hand report with both in the low 40's. But the far NE Heights district is moving Blue and it's Figueroa's second time around the track. This race continues to be rated Lean Dem.

Still in the NE Heights, R Jimmie Hall is struggling with Dem Melanie Stansbury. He reports $52,000 in cash to her $97,000. This district is still R friendly and Hall can survive but this one goes down to the wire.

NETFLIX PERSPECTIVE

It is certainly very good news that entertainment giant Netflix is buying ABQ Studios at Mesa del Sol and saying it hopes to employ1,000 there annually and invest $100 million a year in new production for ten years. We could use the shot in the arm, even if it is costing taxpayers $14 million to get them here. 

And our ridiculous crime rate did not scare them away!

But the politicians aren't satisfied unless they convince us such announcements are akin to the Second Coming. ABQ Mayor Tim Keller has a habit of reaching for the stars in making these announcements and he did it again with Netflix. The quote:

This is Intel equivalent. There has been nothing like this in central New Mexico other than Intel. For us though, Intel was one of 13 fab (fabrication) plants. This is it. It is their only studio they have in the United States that they’ve purchased. They are putting their anchor here and it’s going to redefine the economic landscape in Albuquerque and the Southwest.

Not quite. Well, not even close to "equivalent." Intel's Rio Rancho chip manufacturing facility was the biggest private sector development in the ABQ area in the post-WWII era.

For example, the company did two multibillion upgrades to the plant, in 2007 and 2010.  And those were just upgrades. At its peak Intel employed 7,000 and the vast majority of those jobs were high paying. Now that redefined the economic landscape. And so did the end of the party. Today Intel employs about 1,500 and is no longer doing multibillion upgrades. The impact of the downsizing has been felt across the metro.

Having a major NASDAQ listed company like Netflix is a feather in our cap and congrats to the Mayor and his team as well as the state film office. He pointed out that many of the Netflix studio jobs don't require college degrees--unlike many of the Intel jobs. Because we did not have the trained workforce necessary, Intel had to pay penalties for not being able to hire enough locals, a requirement for obtaining certain government economic incentives. With the ABQ economy still losing college grads a larger percentage of the workforce is made up of high school grads. Netflix will make a difference for them (and train them) and its main impact will be a large shot of adrenaline to the important ABQ and NM film industry.

There is a big issue for the film industry with this announcement. One of our Senior Alligators points out:

Joe, Netflix alone will suck up all the state film incentives which are capped at $50 million a year. Easily. Now we have to revisit how we do things. All of our incentives were written to bring in outside dollars and good jobs. Mission accomplished. Now what? If we just throw more money in the cap, it’s a waste. It's time to focus internally which also benefits our newest local businesses: Netflix.

There has been chatter about increasing the $50 million incentive cap but as our Gator wonders, what for? We have attracted the big kahuna and for a ten year commitment. Welcome to the high desert, Netflix.

ABOUT THAT "RIFLE"

That's a shotgun that southern Dem congressional hopeful Xochitl Torres Small ad is toting in one of the more talked about ads thus cycle--not a "rifle" as we blogged. Several gun enthusiasts wrote in, including this one:

That is a shotgun, not a rifle, in that Xochitl ad. She was ostensibly shooting at little birdies, not ferocious carnivores as might have been the case had it been a rifle.

The ferocious carnivores Xochitl has to worry about are all those Eastside Republicans starving for a Republican win under the banner of GOP contender Yvette Herrell.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018