After two missed opportunities in the first two televised debates, Republican Steve Pearce weaved in his corruption narrative against Michelle Lujan Grisham throughout the third and final debate last night. Repeatedly he threw bullet passes at the Dem front-runner but she did not fumble and fired some fast throws back at him.

The debate itself appeared to be a draw but Pearce probably benefited most because of the corruption headlines that he was finally able to advance in the free media which more people will see than who watched the debate. It aired on KOAT-TV and was up against game two of the World Series.

Let's go to the spin room. First from a longtime R operative:

This was a debate only for the political junkies but at least we saw some real battles on some issues. Pearce and MLG took their respective gloves off and did their best to draw contrasts. But the contrasts they made will only reinforce support among their bases. Regardless of their performances, I don’t think the debate itself — which is late in the game — will move the needle.

Dem analyst and attorney Greg Payne saw it this way:

Pearce was much more comfortable and focused in this debate, although Lujan-Grisham continued to be more focused and on point than Pearce.

Pearce opened with attacks on alleged corruption and incompetence by Lujan-Grisham rather than waiting until the end as he did at the last debate. But Pearce's attacks were a bit muddled and required an insider's knowledge to understand. Lujan-Grisham immediately went after Pearce, linking him in much clearer language with what have become the "Three Ts" of her attacks on Pearce: "Trump", "Toxic politics" and the "Tea Party".

Perhaps the most disappointing aspect of the debate was the lackluster quality of some of the questions the candidates asked of each other. Lujan-Grisham chose to challenge Pearce's knowledge of the "High Risk" pool (Pearce's response: "It's for people who are "high-risk"). And Pearce chose to ask Lujan-Grisham about state pensions. Unremarkable.

All in all, this was a better performance by Pearce - but was it enough to shift the political trend that points toward a Lujan-Grisham victory on Election Day?

The entire debate is here.

GUV HISTORY

When the seat is open gubernatorial blow-outs are a rarity in New Mexico. Since 1970 the peak winner was Democrat Bill Richardson who in 2002 scored 55.5 percent to John Sanchez's 39 percent and 5.5. percent for Green David Bacon. But by then Richardson was already a larger than life figure.

Here's how things have stacked up in recent years in the other Guv races when there was no incumbent on the ballot.

In 1970 Democrat Bruce King beat Republican Pete Domenici 51.3 percent to 46.4.

In 1974 Dem Jerry Apodaca won a squeaker over Republican Joe Skeen 49.9 percent to 48.8.

In 1978 Skeen had another heart breaker when he lost to Bruce King 50.5 to 49.4.

In 1982 Dem Toney Anaya routed John Irick but it still wasn't a blowout. Anaya got 53.0 and Irick 47.0.

In 1986 Republican Garrey Carruthers scored a healthy win over Ray Powell, Sr. 54.0 to 47.0 percent

In 1990 Dem Bruce King was back and beat Republican Frank Bond 54.6 to 45.1.

In 1994 the seat was not open as Governors were now allowed to seek a second term. King lost his re-elect bid to Gary Johnson who sought and won re-election in 1998.

In 2002 it was again an open race and that's when Big Bill Richardson won as outlined above. He was re-elected in 2006.

In 2010 the seat was again open. Republican Susana Martinez beat Democrat Diane Denish 53.3 percent to 46.5 percent.

Not all the percentages in the races add up to precisely 100 because of write-in candidates.

Is there anything to be gleaned from this nearly 50 year history? As I've written before, New Mexico has become a pretty solid Blue state when it comes to the federal races as well as most of the statewide races. However, we still have a purple streak when it comes to Governor. Both D's and R's have shared in the victories over the years. The minority R's usually get in as a reaction to questionable governing by a Democratic Governor.

In 2018 it is the questionable Republican governing of Susana Martinez that is an advantage for Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham but that independent streak New Mexicans have often shown when picking a Governor benefits Pearce.

APOA SPEAKS

Forget the conspiracy theories when it comes to that endorsement of Steve Pearce by the ABQ Police Officers Association (APOA). So says APOA head Shaun Willoughby. He tells us that the endorsement was not tied to the Guv candidates views on the Department of Justice reform agreement with APD:

It had nothing to do with that. Pearce came twice to talk with field officers. We did not get the same opportunity with Michelle. We support candidates who support us. Pearce is a law and order candidate and New Mexico needs law and order to combat one of its biggest ever crime waves. We need leadership that supports the men and women of law enforcement. I wish I knew where Michelle stood.

While Willoughby says the endorsement had nothing to do with the DOJ, he has been highly critical of the recent hiring at APD of former US Attorney Damon Martinez. He led that office during the DOJ investigation and settlement agreement with the city over APD but Willoughby says "DOJ reform is here and we are working with it. The endorsement had nothing to do with that."

Pearce has added crime to the campaign narrative which is a huge concern in the ABQ metro but not as much in other areas of the state. His chances of victory hinge on keeping his losses here to a minimum and avoiding a landslide on MLG's home turf.

SOUTHERN UPDATE

The southern congressional race continues to be riveting to watch. The latest NYT/ Siena College survey conducted Oct 19-23 of 522 likely voters has the race basically tied. Republican Yvette Herrell garners 45 percent to 44 percent for Dem Xochitl Torres Small.

These are two strong candidates and turnout will be the determining factor. The Dems need to increase turnout beyond what is normal for a midterm in the Las Cruces region and the R's need to come full force with their conservative east side base.

The contest is rated Lean Republican here as it is at Inside Elections. However, the Cook Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate it a Toss Up.

The fact is it could go either way but the history of the district--only one Dem win there in 38 years--and the Trump 10 point win there in 2016 earns it the lean R ranking.

This new ad from Torres Small featuring all Republicans and who say they are going to back her because "she can work with anybody" raises questions about the Dem enthusiasm and high turnout that the D's say is occurring.