Tuesday, September 11, 2018Outraised And Outspent But Still Pearce Stands; Our Complete Rundown Of The Latest Money Reports In The Race For Guv, The Statewide Offices And Key State House Battles Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham overpowered Republican Steve Pearce in the fund-raising department in the July 1 through September 3 period, raising $1.9 million to his $750,000. But the parsimonious ways of the wily Pearce had him squirreling away enough in the bank to actually come out ahead of MLG in cash on hand. He had $1.9 million to her $1.3 million. She spent a lot of the loot she raised, nearly $1.5 million, while Pearce shelled out a mere $804,000. But for all that spending MLG did not put him away. Pearce has had a solid TV buy as has she, but hers is a much more expensive campaign to run, replete with a myriad of campaign staffers. The insider polling mavens say she is ahead but is not yet across the critical 50 percent mark. However, while the last poll released by Emerson College had this a 42 to 40 race in favor of MLG, that did not appear to help Pearce much in the fund-raising department. Combined with a special interest TV ad onslaught against him that is already underway, no third party money yet coming his way and her ability to raise more cash than him in the final stretch, the warning flags are blowing in Pearce's face. In case he didn't get it, the state Dems piled on: Steve Pearce’s dismal fundraising shows New Mexicans haven’t forgotten his far-right record and will reject him in November. Still he stands. He can afford to be outspent some because his statewide name ID is already high because of years of service in Congress and his '08 run for US Senate. And so far, Pearce has been running what the car dealer ad guys told us when we were a young media tyke reading about Watergate: Low budget? Hard message. High budget? Softer messaging. Pearce's TV ads haven't exactly been a hard sell, but they have been edgier and more direct on key concerns like jobs and education than MLG's. Her polling lead has led her to the big tent softer approach. The positive campaign has played out from both sides. It will now be the soon to come negative campaign that will decide the matter. MONEY NOTE As expected oilman Pearce received a good chunk of cash in the recent period from oil as well as agribusiness from the southern congressional district he represents. He also received $2,000 from former US Senator and astronaut Jack Schmitt. And how about this eyebrow raiser. Darren White, the former BernCo GOP Sheriff who has been a leading member of the Governor Martinez political machine, has switched sides. He gave MLG a maximum donation of $5,500. Of course, with these guys it’s always follow the money. White is now in the medical marijuana business and the state regulates that business. Enuf said. RACE FOR THE HOUSE
To do that they will probably have to sweep four Bernaillo County contests that are drawing fierce competition. The money reports released Monday give us clues as to how things may shake out in those four key races.
Perhaps the most likely seat to tip to the Dems is the ABQ NE Heights district held by retiring House Minority Leader Nate Gentry. Republican John Jones is trying to keep it in the R column but teacher Natalie Figueroa came close to toppling Gentry two years ago and she's back for another bite out of the apple. She reports $66,000 in cash on hand as of September 3, compared to Jones' $49,000. That's not a huge gap but the fact that the Democrat has more cash in this once solid R district shows the dramatic change in demographics occurring in the district. The race is "Lean Democratic." Another one that may be ready to give way to the Dems is a bit surprising to longtime observers. It's District 28, a far NE Heights district that has been represented by Rep. Jimmie Hall since 2005. But Hillary Clinton claimed the district by a single point over Trump in 2016 and the demographics here also appear to be shaping a new political destiny for the D's. Melanie Stansbury, 39, a former program examiner in the Obama White House Budget Office, is the Dem challenger to Hall and reports $76,000 in cash on hand for the final two months. Hall has $65,000 banked. Stansbury tapped Emily's list for $5,500. Hall received $3,000 from State Rep. Bill Rehm's committee and $2,000 from the committee for retiring State Rep. Larry Larranaga. Again, the cash haul suggests this district may no longer be as competitive for the R's. Should it go into the "Lean D" camp instead of "toss-up?" Maybe. Because . . . Hall, seeing the handwriting on the wall, moved recently to separate himself from the Martinez administration by calling for a special session of the Legislature. Take a look at his Facebook post: I strongly believe it is time for a Special Session to be called to address the crisis at CYFD and the Children's Code. I believe that the current administration is overwhelmed. There appears to be a systemic problem with the professional CYFD staff. I think the requirements to safe guard NM children should receive the highest priority. Yep, that splash you heard was Hall throwing CYFD Secretary Monique Jacobson into the Rio Grande. But it may be too late. The Dems smell blood in that river. WINTER VS. HOCHMAN Over in the northern part of the NE Heights and south to the river there's a battle brewing between ABQ GOP City Councilor Brad Winter and Dem attorney Dayan Hochman to succeed retiring GOP State Rep. Sarah Maestas Barnes. This one looks tight. However, again the Dem has more cash on hand than the R with Hochman reporting $41,000 banked and Winter with $31,000. One of her top donations was $5,500 from the trial lawyers PAC. Winter, who has served on the council since 1999 and was an appointed secretary of state for a time, has high name ID. But if it does indeed turn out to be the year of the woman Hochman could take this one home. MONICA WATCH  Vulnerable? Yes. But not broke. Youngblood reports a significant fundraising edge over Bash with $55,000 in cash in the bank compared to Bash's $14,000. But there is a but. But PAC money is expected to come in big time for the Bash candidacy now that Youngblood is teetering over the embarrassing video of her arrest and her refusal to take a breathalyzer test when busted. Will the R PAC's try to save her? The answer to that could decide this one. LAND OFFICE RUMBLE Was that the sound of the race for state land commissioner shifting from "lean Democrat" to something more R friendly like toss-up? We told you the oil boys would be all over the GOP candidacy of former Land Commissioner Pat Lyons and the money reports revealed their presence. Lyons raised $144,000 in the July to September 3 time frame, spent $50,000 and had the tidy sum of $188,000 in cash. That number plus what more will come in guarantees Lyons will have a good TV buy and money for mail. On the other hand, Dem nominee and State Rep. Stephanie Garcia Richard is going to have to depend on the kindness of strangers---or at least third party environmental PAC's to keep Lyons caged. She reports the unprincely sum of $33,000 in cash on hand. She raised $55,000 but spent $54,000. So it will be oil vs the enviros in the weeks ahead. Well, it will also be Lyons vs. Garcia Richard, but you get the deal. AUDITOR ACTION If the Dems did not have such a distinct advantage in statewide registration, they might be fretting more over the money numbers from appointed GOP State Auditor Wayne Johnson and his Dem challenger and ABQ attorney Brian Colón. Johnson reported $105,000 in cash on September 3 while Colón trails with $100,000, $5,000 of which came from ABQ'S Branch Law Firm. Johnson received $5K from the owner of Vista Encantada Realtors and also $1,000 from ABQ businessman Doug Turner. Neither Johnson or Colón have the firepower yet for a decent TV buy. But that breaks Colón's way because it is Johnson who has to peel off Dems in order to win, HOW MUCH, HECTOR??
He shook La Politica with the last money report when he reported $900,00 in cash on hand. Now the eyebrows are raised again as he reports his stash has grown to $986,000. Auto dealers and attorneys showered him with cash in the latest period. Balderas faces Republican Michael Hendricks and Libertarian candidate A. Blair Dunn in November. But with the kind of cash Hector has they look like they're about to face a firing squad. Of course, all the donors in all the reports covered here today are giving for the betterment of democracy. They don't expect any special treatment or access. Isn't that refreshing? This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.   (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018 |
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