The first ABQ Journal poll of Campaign '18 is coming a bit earlier than expected. It will hit the driveways and digital screens this Sunday morning.

In an era when a wide variety of surveys are released with a multitude of methodologies the Journal survey conduced by Brian Sanderoff is relied on by both parties as an arbitrator of what's really happening with the electorate. The methodology is key. Unlike other public polls released this cycle, the Journal uses live interviewers, the majority of the calls are placed to cellphone users and the voter lists are fresh. And then there's their over 30 year history of polling the state. Some points to keep in mind as we wait for the numbers:

--This first poll could benefit Republican Governor contender Steve Pearce who is widely thought to have kept Dem front-runner Michelle Lujan Grisham from closing out this race early. If MLG is indeed below the critical 50 percent mark, as widely expected, underdog Pearce can continue to argue to donors that he has a chance--even if other early favorable polling to his cause didn't seem to have much success in garnering more cash.

--The survey will come before any TV ads are aired in ABQ congressional district race. Democrat Deb Haaland is widely favored to take the seat but the undecided could loom large, giving some moral support to the uphill candidacy of Republican Janice Arnold- Jones. The problem? Arnold-Jones doesn't have enough money to get on TV in a significant way.

--The poll will arrive when the southern congressional district media campaign has only just started to kick in. The district is "lean Republican" but the early polling could show the race unsettled, helping Dem Xochitl Torres Small keep alive her quest to beat GOP nominee and State Rep. Yvette Herrell.

--The survey will also look at all the down ballot races but, again, we have had no media in any of them. History says Dems will sweep all but one of them. The contest for state land commissioner is in play. The poll could give a boost to Republican Pat Lyons because he is a former two term GOP Land Commissioner with statewide name ID. Dem hopeful Stephanie Garcia Richard scored an impressive primary win but remains largely unknown and will stay that way until she gets going on the tube.

The poll, to be rolled out over a week, will also cover the top issues on the minds of New Mexicans. That will give election watchers a better idea of why they are seeing certain themes from the campaigns.

Unless the paper does a second poll, say a month from now, it will be the lesser known public polls and those from the campaigns that will be filling the gap and setting perceptions. If the Journal's second and final poll is in very late October the major races may have already been put to bed because of large early in-person voting which begins Oct. 20. All of that calls for three polls, but they are not cheap to produce.

BEAGLES AND SUPREMES

Our legal beagles kept their credentials intact. As they predicted on the Wednesday blog, the NM Supreme Court ruled that Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver does not have the authority to reinstate straight party ticket voting. The Beagles scored another coup by correctly predicting the decision would be unanimous--5 to 0.

The SOS's decision to reinstate the straight ticket caused an outcry from professional operatives of all stripes. Those asking the court to overturn her decision were the Republican and Libertarian parties, Unite New Mexico, a nonprofit that advocates for independent candidates; Elect Liberty PAC, which is supporting former Gov. Gary Johnson’s Senate bid and Dem write-in candidates Heather Nordquist of Santa Fe who is challenging Democrat Andrea Romero.

The Justices said determining such matters as straight ticket voting belong to the Legislature--not the SOS--and it's hard to argue with their bipartisan logic.

In reaction to the defeat, Toulouse Oliver did not mention appealing the decision to federal court so straight ticket voting is indeed dead:

The (Court) decision is a disappointing blow to voter access in New Mexico. We should be expanding voting rights and accessibility but, instead, this decision limits the options voters have when casting their ballots and makes voting less convenient. While I stand by my position that straight-party voting is a reasonable option, I respect the judges’ decision and will abide by it. . . “In light of this decision, I am recommitting myself to working toward expanding voter access to the ballot box and advocating for policies such as same-day voter registration, open primaries, and - potentially - vote at home initiatives, in order to better serve New Mexican voters down the road. I hope that those who have opposed the straight-party option, but at the same time claim to support increased voter accessibility, will work with me to enact these important policies. . . 

It's unlikely the court decision will have much impact on the election but it did reveal the growing strength of independents and third parties in the state as the two major parties struggle to attract new members.

As for Toulouse Oliver, who was excoriated from all corners over her attempt to bring back straight ticket voting, she remains a heavy favorite to win re-election against Republican Gavin Clarkson and Libertarian Ginger Grider. While she took a hit in statewide public opinion, it wasn't much. On the other hand, die-hard Dems who praised her for trying won't forget and could provide her support someday if she seeks nomination to another office.

THAT HERRELL HIT

Here's that attack ad on southern GOP congressional contender Yvette Herrell that we mentioned yesterday and that was launched by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The script:

How can we trust Yvette Herrell? Her record filled with controversy. Her ethics questioned. While serving in the state House, Herrell landed nearly half a million dollars in taxpayer funded contracts for her own company, and failed to disclose it to the public.
The Albuquerque Journal called Herrell’s actions egregious. Even fellow Republicans say she can’t be trusted and call her an insider who puts her own self-interest first. We just can’t trust Yvette Herrell.

This is not a new attack. In fact, one of Herrell's GOP foes cut a negative TV ad about it in the June primary. The charges originated with this AP report:

A New Mexico GOP state lawmaker and congressional candidate failed to disclose that her real estate company earned nearly a half-million dollars in contracts with two state agencies over five years, according to an analysis of campaign finance disclosure records,

After that report Herrell filed an updated financial disclosure form, listing a family business that leases office space to state.

In response to the new ad, Herrell's campaign said:

Prior to updating her filing earlier this year, Yvette Herrell was never required by the Secretary of State to disclose income received by the company for properties leased to the State. Still, she filed amended financial disclosure documents even though she is simply a partner in the company but has never been paid or collected money from it. Following the update to her disclosure paperwork, Yvette Herrell received written notice from the Secretary of State's Elections Director stating that "no further action is needed.

Herrell's campaign also called for the TV stations to pull down the ad, saying it was a "smear" on her character and misleading. Well, the ad is based on facts and far from the standards of a "smear." But the political punch it delivers is questionable because the controversy was previously disclosed and still she won the nomination. The D-Trip needs to go back to the research books for fresh stuff if they're going to get Dem challenger Xochitl Torres-Small in this thing.

HERRELL'S FIRST

We have that first ad now from the Herrell campaign. It says Washington needs a "reality check" but there is no mention of Trump and there is no use of the word "conservative" that she leaned on so heavily in winning the GOP nomination. Instead she is said to have "courage and conviction." Nothing fancy but no weaknesses either.

EDUCATION CLASH

That education ad from Steve Pearce continues to get under the skin of MLG's camp. Pearce is encroaching on traditionally Democratic turf so you get this . . .

Michelle Lujan Grisham Announces Educators for Michelle, more than 200 Strong Supporting Michelle for Governor

(Her) comprehensive plan for New Mexico public education has earned her the early support of the New Mexico American Federation of Teachers (AFT), the National Educators Association New Mexico (NEA), and families across the state.

And MLG's latest TV effort is all about education. The script:

Michelle Lujan Grisham (Voiceover): “This is Joshua. He lives in northern New Mexico. What kind of schools will he go to? As he grows older, what will his dreams become? Will he go to college or technical school? Or in a different direction, with an uncertain future.”  “I’m Michelle Lujan Grisham and New Mexico can choose the right path. As governor, I’ll use our permanent fund to invest in our schools, apprenticeships, infrastructure, and small business. It all starts here."

The education ads from both campaign are solid but it is Republican Pearce's pivot to the compassionate center where he frets about the pressure being put on school teachers that is the news. It's all too much for the Dems and you wonder why they aren't yet up with rebuttal ads. In any event Bernalillo County Dem Chair Bill Peifer can't take it anymore:

Are you seriously trying to convince people that a member of Congress who has opposed federal funding for school lunch and breakfast programs suddenly cares about how hungry kids are when they're trying to learn? Do you really think that people will believe that a man who has, for years, supported the failed "test-test-test" educational philosophy of Susana Martinez has finally seen the light and now calls it a "broken test system"? Are you naive enough to think that you can woo teachers with platitudes when you've got a 0% rating from the NEA and have supported the concept of privatizing public schools? You may be able to fool some of the people, but I believe that most New Mexicans are too smart to fall for hypocritical pandering and lies.

Well, Bill, maybe New Mexicans are "too smart" to fall for the "new" Steve Pearce, but when all your team has up on the air are ads trying to bring him down over his ties to the oil industry and environmental issues, you're giving him plenty of room to make his case. Just sayin'. . .

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018