Giffords and Grisham

The progressive wing of the Democratic Party, feeling as welcome as ants at a picnic in the circumspect, centrist campaign of Dem Guv nominee Michelle Lujan Grisham, finally had a bone thrown to them. Lujan Grisham brought to town former US Rep. Gabby Giffords who survived a 2011 assassination attempt and is today an ardent advocate for stiffer gun control laws.

A crowd of several hundred packed Lujan Grisham's downtown ABQ headquarters where she declared her support for measures expanding background checks for all gun sales and ban domestic violence offenders from buying guns.

There was not much talk of a federal ban on military style assault weapons but Lujan Grisham has been for that since being elected to Congress in 2012.

Predictably, the event drew the wrath of GOP nominee Steve Pearce who blasted MLG for supporting "extreme policies,” like a ban on the AR-15-style semi-automatic rifle which has been involved in so many mass shootings.

Pearce had the politics right for his side in going after the assault weapons ban. His mainly rural base constituency is with him. MLG has already lost those votes.

More important for her are the Democratic cities of ABQ, Santa Fe and Las Cruces--all of which have become more liberal and have been waiting to hear something they could grasp on to ever since she dissed major progressive policies in a controversial interview with the ABQ Journal.

Sisto Abeyta, a consultant who worked with State Senator Joe Cervantes who MLG beat in the June primary, says the two points of weakness in the Lujan Grisham candidacy right now are "Anglo progressives who need reassurance" and "Hispanic males who are finding g some appeal in Pearce."

The Democratic Party is a big tent and it's like herding cats. MLG will need to throw many more bones out as she labors to hold the tent up and get over the finish line November 6.

WHAT? ME WORRY?

That seems to be the message from Dem US Senator Martin Heinrich who, like the rest of us, is waiting for former NM Governor Gary Johnson to announce whether he will accept the offer of the NM Libertarian Party and run against Heinrich on their ticket.

The pro-Johnson crowd has floated all kinds of poll numbers as he hypes his possible interest, so it's only right to give a hearing to the survey commissioned by the campaign of Heinrich. It was done August 1-5 of 800 likely NM voters by GBA Strategies and says:

--Heinrich leads a potential 3-way race with Republican Mick Rich in 2nd place, followed by Libertarian Gary Johnson in 3rd. . .In a 3-way matchup, Heinrich receives 47 percent of the vote, while Rich comes in second with 29 percent. . . Johnson comes in third with 22 percent

--In a contest with only Heinrich and Johnson, Heinrich leads Johnson by 12 points, 50-38 percent. Heinrich gets support from 81 percent of Democrats, while only 61 percent of Republicans say they would back Johnson. Heinrich leads Johnson with Independents 51-33 percent.

The GBA survey seems more in line with what you would expect. Johnson says he wants to get in if he thinks he can win and with those kind of numbers no wonder he is hesitating. Then, there's raising the money. Would Gary's numbers improve if he actually announced his candidacy? Good question.

TO APPROVE OR NOT

Here's an interesting tidbit from that Heinrich poll:

Heinrich's job approval stands at 53-33 percent approve-disapprove, while Independents approve of the job he is doing by a similar margin of 53 – 36 percent.

In the Morning Consult Survey conducted over a three month period--April thru June-- Heinrich scores a somewhat anemic approval rating of 43 percent. However, Morning Consult conducts its surveys only online and does not use live interviews with cellphone and landline users. It also interviews "registered voters" not "likely voters."

So where is Heinrich's approval number right now? Based on the difference of methodology in the two polls most observers would put it much closer to 50 or more than 43. And Senator Udall's approval rating of 46 percent in Morning Consult is probably higher when you adjust for methodology.

We got into all of this because it was that Morning Consult survey that got the chatter going over Heinrich perhaps being more vulnerable than thought.

One other note. The GBA survey may have bumped Heinrich's approval a smidgen as his first TV ad of the campaign went up during the survey period.

CITY BEAT

Let's finish up with a check on the city beat. Here's veteran radio talk show host (and Republican) Larry Ahrens:

Joe -Your post about the Mayor and crime was quite interesting. I've had the feeling that Keller has been treating the crime issue in ABQ as more of a PR problem than an actual crime problem. City Hall thinks doing a few more news conferences about crime stats is going to change the perception.

SANCHEZ AND KELLER

Keller and Sanchez

Elaine Romero, policy analyst for ABQ City Council President Ken Sanchez, writes:

Councilor Sanchez asked that I send his statement below in response to your story and remarks, regarding the Topgolf veto override:

After I made the decision not to run for Mayor, I supported Tim Keller’s candidacy to lead our city. Although we didn’t see eye to eye on the details of the Topgolf plan, since being elected President of the Council, Mayor Keller and I have worked on many projects together and I look forward to continuing to work closely with the Mayor. 

We have already been able to make some great strides with the Mayor’s leadership, including key initiatives to get our economy growing again and to improve public safety. We have worked together to pass a significant pay increase to recruit and retain police officers. We have also increased resources for the Safe City Strike Force to address nuisance properties, and I supported the Mayor’s initiative to increase funding for summer and afterschool programs that provide safe learning and recreational activities for our children.  

Peace, harmony and good 'ol back slapping at City Hall. Come on, Ken, you're going to kill the blog ratings.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018