Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Key Points Now That Johnson Is In US Senate Race, Plus: Think Positive: Former Lawmaker Wants Good News And We Deliver, Plus: Bash Vs. Youngblood; A Banner State House Race?

We’ve already blogged extensively about Gary Johnson and what it would mean if he joined the US Senate race as the Libertarian Party nominee. Now that he has made it official here are some key points.

—The Senate race now becomes more interesting and with Johnson’s outsized personality more entertaining. The first TV debate featuring the three candidates—Dem Martin Heinrich, Johnson and Republican Mick Rich—should be the biggest ratings grabber of the political season.

—Heinrich will be kept on his toes by the Johnson candidacy and probably subjected to a negative campaign by third-party interests. That will make the race more expensive for him. However, don’t expect him to take any sudden swerves. No Libertarian has ever been elected to the US Senate and Johnson’s thinking remains outside of the mainstream.

—How much the independent Super PAC that is supporting Johnson will raise remains a big unknown. There’s only 2 1/2 months before the election. In the relatively inexpensive New Mexico TV market around $750,000 would give Johnson more than a decent TV presence for eight weeks.

—Johnson will draw from both Democrats and Republicans but in the end his victory is highly unlikely because he will split many conservative votes with Mick Rich. Also, after 25 years on the political scene there’s not a lot of upside for Gary Johnson. You either know him and like him or you know him and you don’t like him. That’s why the Heinrich polling that has Johnson in the low 20s at the start signals a roof on his support.

—The Johnson candidacy could actually have the most impact on the governor’s race and that is not good news for Republican Steve Pearce. He needs laser-like focus from this electorate if he is to pull the upset and beat Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham. Now he has to share the oxygen in the room with Gary Johnson. With Johnson’s penchant for outlandish behavior that’s like sleeping with an elephant in the room.

The Johnson Super PAC released a 90 second video in support of his candidacy Tuesday,

THE GOOD NEWS

Former ABQ Dem State Rep. Delano Garcia writes on our Facebook page:

Mr. Monahan, I agree that New Mexico has a lot of issues, but why don't you and the rest of this state's media spend just a little more time reporting the good things in NM. Let's put a little more focus on the good things just a little, not suggesting to cover up or sugar coat anything, but too much focus on all negatives!

Okay, Delano, we'll give it a whirl. Here is your positive news report:

--The NM unemployment rate for June was 4.9 percent. That puts us at 48th in the nation but still a solid improvement from recent years.

--The state general fund surplus is excepted to hit $600 million or more giving lawmakers next January a lot more breathing room to draft a budget.

--UNM's four year graduation rate has nearly doubled since 2014.

--The NM teen birth rate is at its lowest in decades.

--A heavy monsoon season has taken a bite out of the drought. In ABQ year to date rainfall total are just a bit below average.

--There are cool developments in the works for a mountain coaster and a new restaurant atop Sandia Peak, perhaps the most famous landmark in the state, and that will mean an improved experience for thousands of tourists each year as well as locals.

And there you have your good news report, Delano. You were right. It was long overdue.

BASH VS. YOUNGBLOOD

Karen Bash 
It's pretty much all pablum from the Dems thus far as they eye a possible takeover of the Republican-oriented district currently in the hands of ABQ GOP Rep. Monica Youngblood but who faces an aggravated DWI charge that will go to court at the end of the month.

The video accompanying her arrest is potentially devastating to her re-election chances. But the hit squad has not been called in yet and the Dem contender Karen Bash is playing nice. The House Dems, in listing women to watch who are running for the House, said of the race:

Karen is a former teacher and retired ordained minister who has dedicated her entire life to helping others. As a wife, mother of two and a concerned citizen, Karen knows New Mexico can do better. She is running for House District 68 because she cares about our families and our communities and wants to bring her experience and dedication to helping others to Santa Fe.

Sounds good, but Youngblood is a fighter and the initial insider polling shows the DWI charge has not significantly damaged her in the northern Westside district. It will be up to Bash and the Dems to hammer away at that, if they are to take a seat that at the start of the year was not in play but is now a ripe D target. Meantime, Youngblood needs some good news out of that DWI trial.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.
(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018