New Mexico was stunned Wednesday and for a change it was not because of a horrific crime. The beancounters for the Legislative Finance Committee delivered a jaw dropping forecast. They said that because of the bull market in oil production in the SE Permian Basin revenue to the state general fund for the budget year starting next July will soar an "astonishing" $1.2 billion. That's an 18 percent increase that will send our 112 lawmakers into near delirium on how to spend the unexpected loot when they convene in January.

“New money,” defined as projected recurring revenues for the following fiscal year less current year recurring appropriations, is estimated at an astonishing $1.2 billion for FY20, or 18 percent growth from the FY19 recurring budget. 

By golly, if the beancounters are "astonished" the rest of us are floored. Previous estimates of the possible surplus were half that amount.


Now, at least for a while, there will finally be money for them to get something done--build a school addition, improve a local park. pave a worn out street--all the stuff that puts a smile on the faces of both legislators and their constituents.

Even if the hawks are successful in creating a too large reserve of 20 percent of the total budget--on top of a new rainy day fund that mandates additional savings in flush years---there will be literally hundreds of millions of dollars to shore up accounts depleted during the downturn and increase funding for the schools which take the lion's share of the budget.

The current budget is $6.3 billion. The new one is going to perhaps touch $7 billion or more, finally catching up some with the rate of inflation that along with severe budget cuts decimated state accounts and, some would argue, vital public services.

ABQ Dem State Senator Michael Padilla seemed to sum up the consensus when he told me:

Education. From neonatal to higher ed. That's our best bet. Investing in that is the long term key to our economic success and this money is an opportunity to do just that."

SERENDIPITY AT WORK

The budget forecast was serendipitous, coming as it did only weeks after a district judge ruled the state is in violation of the Constitution for not properly funding the public schools and in the process disenfranchising minority students. Charles Goodmacher of the NEA:

Not only is there a surplus, but there is also the judge's mandate to begin to move towards sufficient funding the schools. It’s the perfect opportunity for N.M. to jump start satisfying our Constitutional obligations to sufficiently funds the schools! 

Well, there were a lot of exclamation points going around as the news spread, including from the two candidates for Governor who may want the job more than ever now that there is cash in the bank. Even crusty old Steve Pearce, as conservative as they come, is finally ready to party it up:

We must take this opportunity to get more funds to our schools, improve our mental health system, cut taxes on Social Security for seniors, and make cash payments on strategic infrastructure projects like broadband, roads, and wastewater. We should also ensure our reserves are adequately funded.

Welcome to the party, Steve. We've been waiting for you.

A couple of weeks ago Dem contender Michelle Lujan Grisham called herself a "fiscal conservative." Well, uh, times change. She said of the surplus:

We must fund statewide universal Pre-K, increase educator salaries and fund apprenticeships and skills training through community colleges and high schools to prepare workers for good-paying jobs.

There are a number of caveats as the Dom Perignon flows again at the Roundhouse (or at least at the Bull Ring). The $1.2 billion is not revenue that will necessarily recur year after year, meaning that much of it will probably be spent on one time projects. But oil production--at record levels and predicted to continue for several years--will probably give lawmakers the courage to give education spending a permanent boost, betting that oil prices stay steady.

CYFD: MONEY NOT PROBLEM

Senator Padilla says money is not a major problem with the troubled agency, that it has actually been returning money to the general fund even as social worker vacancies persist and the violence against children makes headlines. He says he looks forward to seeing the funds spent in a new administration. Another problem, he says, is the delay in fixing the CYFD case management system that would help track and curb violence. He is calling on the Martinez administration to get the job done in its waning days.

CALLING TASKUS

There was some more good economic news Wednesday when it was announced that TaskUs, a customer service center for tech firms, will come to ABQ and plans to hire about 700 workers for its downtown call center over the next five years, starting next year.

Now some may pooh-pooh the idea of more call center employment, and we used to be among them. But the dream of high tech or other employment that attract Millennials and pays north of $60,000 a year is not happening here--and for a variety of reasons discussed ad nauseum on your blog--is not going to happen anytime soon.

So as college degree holding Millennials flee to neighboring states, we still have a job to do in providing employment for the youth and others that do stay but do not have high level education credentials. Call centers work well for the low-wage, service economy that has become the primary driver of the private sector here.

TaskUs did not provide a salary range for the jobs but some quick research shows the average pay for their customer service rep ranges from $12 to $14 an hour. There will be a number of other management jobs that pay substantially more that will bring the "average pay" of the workforce up, but a full-time customer rep would appear to take in something in the mid to high 20's. Company employees posting on the Internet praise the work environment and benefits offered, if not the salaries.

In announcing the TaskUs deal, the elected officials seem to be trying to spin this as a breakthrough in high tech employment. No one wanted to say "call center."