The long knives of La Politica are never allowed to rust. They come out like clockwork immediately following the results. This time is no different as disgruntled D's absorb the shellshock of an Election Night disaster. "This whole campaign was smoke and mirrors," declared one depressed D insider as he analyzed the NM defeat of Kerry. "Where was our organization down south? What happened to the Hispanic vote? And why were prominent NM Democrats not featured in the campaign to beat Bush," he wondered.

(Read my analysis and others of NM Prez race in USA Today.

Here's theCNN exit poll on NM. Note the Hispanic number for Bush. They might be high, but tell the tale.)

There were plenty of fingers pointing to answers the morning after. Much of it focused on the man who made a Kerry victory here a personal mission, Big Bill. "First they are going to blame the governor, then they are going to blame the voters and then they will finally blame themselves," said one insider R about the Dems as he exulted in the Bush victory.

And he's right. Big Bill's TV commercial for Kerry featured him prominently and was a closing spot for the campaign. His personal staff was hands-on with the Kerry campaign and his PAC, Moving America Forward, was to deliver the Hispanic vote. None of it worked.

"Didn't they realize that he (Big Bill) is not popular down south? Bill and his operatives have never understood that area. They almost lost the constitutional amendment there last year. This time They consolidated all the power of the campaign, and they blew it. The whole thing was way overrated and poorly coordinated. People who had already voted were still getting phone calls and the get-out-the-vote effort was nonexistent in some of the rural areas," raged one Dem campaign strategist.

Party Chair Wertheim tried to put the best face on the D downfall, saying they had done all they could. But few were buying and he too was the target of barbs.

FUTURE IMPACT

Big Bill's White House hopes were also under the microscope in Washington, where one Prez watcher said the failure of Big Bill to deliver NM, a state with 42% Hispanics, will sting. "How can he tell the national D's he can deliver the Hispanic vote nationally, if he can't carry his own state," said one Capitol Hill insider.

Dems raging at Big Bill were passionate. They felt Bush was one of the weakest targets ever. In the heat of the moment, some slammed operatives by name. But it will be Big Bill, the public symbol of the Dem party, who will take the hit. "Poor Bill Richardson," Senator Domenici cockily cooed Wednesday morning as he gloated over the Bush victory.

Others claimed the Kerry loss will reduce the fear factor of the Guv and make opposition more likely in the Legislature, if only among emboldened R's. Other insiders told me the coalition of R's and D's in the state senate has a better chance of surviving in the aftermath of Tuesday's Democratic debacle.

But most D's, while enraged, were also fearful." We need candidates and a message voters can connect with," said one. Meanwhile, at the Oval Office, Karl Rove was relishing the triumph of his NM campaign strategy, in which Bush lost big Bernalillo County but boosted conservative turnout elsewhere. It was a bold gamble and he won. "Maybe we have new math, or maybe we just need new blood,' mourned an Albuquerque D badly in need of Prozac.

PREDICTIONS GONE AWRY AND RIGHT

I spent Wednesday wiping egg off of my face, after predicting a Kerry victory in NM. I was right on Bernalillo County (Kerry won) and dead wrong on he national outcome. I had plenty of company, none more surprising than State Sen. "Lightning Rod" Adair who dispatched an Election Day e-mail saying Bush would lose the election. What?? That's right.

The hard-right conservative, a co-chair of the NM Bush campaign who fancies himself as one of the nation's foremost experts on Prez politics jumped ship. He said Bush would lose in the Electoral College 254 to 284 and drop Ohio and New Mexico along the way. Wrong, Rod. All this had some R's fuming. "It was an act of treason. It again showed that Rod is more concerned about Rod than the party,' blasted an R operative.

One who has gloating rights over Adair is ABQ Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff, who once again had all the major winners finishing at the top of his pre-election poll. Adair has questioned Sanderoff's integrity in blistering e-mail attacks. But now it is Adair's integrity being called into question as Bush supporters wonder just whose side he was on. Will Adair now dare to take credit for the Bush victory here? As always, stay tuned.

EXPERTS FOR A REASON

My panel of experts fared pretty well with their pre-election predictions. Veteran R Bruce Donisthorpe came the closest predicting here last week: "Nationally, Bush wins. Electoral College 279-259, taking Ohio and Florida in close contests." Bruce nailed it. He also predicted a 1,000 vote win for Bush in NM. It will be larger, but his call was close.

Green Steve Cabiedes was another prognosticator who deserves a tip of the hat. The prediction: "The political numbers cruncher likes Bush seeing W getting 284 electoral votes to Kerry's 254. He scores Florida and Ohio for Bush." Steve may be the closest when it's all over.

Kurt Lohbeck got the winner right but his 300 electoral vote prediction for W was too high. However, he did predict a gain of two seats for the R's in the Senate. They got four. Greg Payne was the best pundit on the Wilson-Romero Congressional race. He said: "I score it for Heather with 54% to Richard's 46%." He had Heather right on target and Richard just one point high. Nice call. Lohbeck, Payne and Donisthorpe also correctly predicted Senate Minority Leader Daschle would be defeated in South Dakota. Hey, that's why we pay them the big bucks.

BLOGGING AHEAD

I will probably be a bit light here in the next week or so as I, like you, come down from the frenzy of the campaign. But stay tuned for updates. The wonderful world of La Politica is a never-ending journey into the unexpected. I will have some more comment Friday at 8:30 p.m. on KNME-TV's "In Focus" program, hosted by Kate Nelson. See you then.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author