If you like em' close on Election Night don't take a vacation; New Mexico will be the place to be. The latest round of polls show we are going down to the wire and perhaps into the wee morning hours of Wednesday and beyond to determine who will win our state's precious five electoral votes. The ABQ Journal Research & Polling survey released today shows Bush at 47%, Kerry at 44%, 7% undecided, Nader 1% and Libertarian Badnarik at 1%. (Oct. 26-29, MOE +-3%) Meanwhile, the American Research Group (ARG) gives Kerry a one point lead over Bush. Kerry at 48%, Bush with 47%. (Oct. 27-30, MOE: ± 4%) That's the same margin ARG had it in their last NM survey in mid-October. Mason-Dixon reported late Saturday that Bush has 49 percent to Kerry’s 45 percent in the state. (Oct. 27-29 MOE-4%)

The Journal survey has good news for Bush in Bernalillo County, home to ABQ. According to the poll, he is two points ahead of Kerry in the metro area. Bush is running solid down South. Kerry, as expected takes the North. The winner will be decided, as it usually is, in Bernalillo County and its suburbs. That's why Bush will be in ABQ Monday and today Cheney will go to the Valencia County suburbs. Bush polled 32% of Hispanics, an expected number, but he is geting 20% of Dems, barely enough. Kery has women problems. He's only ahead two points with them. Kerry needs to bring home the Hispanics and women. Bill Clinon is here today working it for him.

Kerry does not have to win Bernalillo County big to take the race. Gore won it by 4,000 and eked out a 366 vote win four years ago. But if Kerry does not win the county like Gore, or loses it narrowly, it's unlikely he will get the nod. Same for Bush. I can't recall a statewide GOP winner who did not win in the state's largest county. He probably needs the win here. If it stays tight, look for another cliffhanger.

THE PLOT THICKENS

The ARG poll may have it as it will turn out Election Night, (they were in the field one day later than the Journal) a one point race with the possibility of a long wait for provisional ballots and some recounting to determine the ultimate outcome. The undecided in the Journal poll should break heavily towards the senator. If turnout spikes heavy among newly registered voters, Kerry is positioned nicely as he has a hefty lead among that segment in the Journal poll. But who knows for sure who will vote?

Kerry may or may not come back to ABQ. Former Prez Clinton is here today. The decision may rest on where Kerry stands in Florida and Ohio and whether he can risk taking time away from them. At this point, Kerry may leave it up to Big Bill to bring it home.

Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff also surveyed early in-person voters in NM and found the GOP is carrying them by a couple of points. That seems to say that all those newly registered voters were not yet flocking to early voting locations to go wild for Kerry. The absentee ballots will also go GOP, but by a significantly less margin than in past years. Turnout, turnout, turnout. I am almost as tired of hearing that as I am of the never-ending Kerry-Bush TV ads. But that's where the top political minds in our state tell me where we stand with just hours to go before the fateful decision is rendered.

HEATHER: GANGBUSTERS IT AIN'T

All signs point to a victory for incumbent GOP ABQ Congresswoman Heather Wilson as she faces a second challenge from D Richard Romero. Wilson has opened up an eight point lead in the Journal poll. Heather is at 51%, Richard gets 43% and undecided 7%. She trounced Romero by ten points two years ago. That will not happen this time. The smart money is predicting 52-48%. The longshot bet is a big spike in turnout among Dems and newly registered voters and Romero takes it by a handfull.

Wilson had several problems this time. First, the Iraq war and Bush have been unpopular in ABQ. But Bush's apparent improvement in Bernalillo County is good news for Heather. If the Prez is not whipped here, there will be no Kerry coattails to ride. Wilson's other problem is the 12 year phenomenon. That's when voters have no race on the ballot between Prez and Congress, such as senator or governor. With no other top-tier races, the attention moves right to the Congressional battle in the free and paid media. In a majority Dem district like ABQ, that put added pressure on Wilson. Also, this is the first time she has gone head-to-head with the Dem challenger. Her other races since 98' have featured Green Party contenders which siphoned votes away from the Dem. Still, the Romero move to paint her as doing favors for terroists was shot down and broke the race open for her. She was only a point ahead a month ago.

If Wilson wins, as appears quite likely, she will have paid a price in terms of her image and likabilty. If that's temporary, fine. If not, it could complicate her future ambitions for the U.S. Senate.

Romero and the national Dems have done pretty well, but they may not have started early enough to cement the anti-Heather vote. Also, Romero is still having trouble nailing down Hispanics, as Wilson is getting a too-high 37% of them in the Journal survey. All in all Romero should not be kicking himself too hard. He got the race in play and he still has a shot, albeit, quite a longshot, to pull off the upset.

NO BIG SURPRISE

That the ABQ street bonds and with them the controversial extension of Paseo Del Norte on ABQ's Westside will pass, according to the Journal poll, is no big surprise. A big turnout will reverse the defeat they suffered a year ago in the low-turnout city election. Ditto for the ill-advised Unification scheme. It too will go down, predicts the poll. It has been rejected untold times over the years, ABQ and Bernalillo County residents clearly do not have the urge to merge.

MONDAY: MY KANW-FM ELECTION EVE SPECIAL

Time to fish or cut bait. And that's just what I will ask my panel of epxert insiders to do Monday at 5 p.m. on KANW 89.1 FM. Our hour long Election Eve special will feature top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland, ABQ Tribune managing editor Kate Nelson, Dem insider Terry Brunner and GOP State Senator Joe Carraro. Tune in and see if they can predict the big races right.

ELECTION NIGHT ON KANW 89.1 FM

We will start early Tuesday, Nov. 2 to bring you the important East Coast results. Top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland and other experts will join me for rapid-fire results and analysis on 89.1 FM. It's all made possible by Pfizer, Enterprise rent-a-car, Bill Campbell Realty, NM Legislative Reports and John Moore & Associates. Be sure to join us as we call all the NM races.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author