Up to 2500 votes cast in Bernalillo County will definitely not be counted on Election Night, raising the specter of candidates slowly twisting in the wind awaiting results to settle closely fought battles. County election chief Jaime Diaz tells me that absentee ballots cast by first time voters who are required to enclose identification will NOT be included in the absentee total on E night and it may be several days before they are tallied. "We have sent out 2500 provisional absentee ballots to these first-time voters. So far, we have received 763 of them back. They can not be counted Election Night because they have to be checked to make sure they contain the proper ID and are properly registered," explained Diaz in an in-depth interview via cell phone from his busy-as-a-bee office.

With several thousand absentee ballots and other "provisional" ballots going uncounted E night here and elsewhere around NM, if either Prez candidate is not a multi-thousand vote winner it is unlikely we will get a declared victor next Tuesday. But you are getting used to that, aren't you?

PERPLEXING NM PREZ POLL

Now it's eight. That's the lead for Bush over Kerry in Zogby's nightly tracking poll. It's a real head-shaker with Zogby again putting Bush over 40% (41) with Hispanics, a number even the Bush campaign does npt expect to hit. Overall Zogby scores it 50% Bush and 42% Kerry. An increase of three points for Bush over the previous day's track. Bush visited NM Sunday. Kerry is in ABQ Today.I asked Republican warhorse Bruce Donisthorpe who roots for Bush, but has been giving us straight down-the-line analysis all year, what us poor poll watchers are to make of all this.

"Republicans should keep the champagne on ice. This race is tighter, but this poll is probably causing each campaign to take a look at their own numbers to see if
Zogby can be validated," said Bruce. He added that he agrees with analysts who feel Bush will be hard-pressed to get 40% of the Hispanic vote here which would be a record for a Republican Prez candidate. He also advises that "we follow the planes." "Both sides have scheduled major visits here. That tells you they certainly think the state's in play, as I do," stated the former Capitol Hill staffer.

I await the ABQ Journal/Sanderoff poll which will be out Sunday and will take extra care to weight the sample with newly registered voters, those who have already voted and Hispanics. Until then, keep your seatbelt on.

PARTY LOYALTY GALORE

It takes a lot of Democrats to become the most Democratic county in New Mexico. Guadalupe County takes the title with a stunning 84% of its registered voters proudly wearing the donkey symbol. Total voter registration in the north central county is 3,720. The runner-up is that old reliable Rio Arriba where 82% of the nearly 24,000 are D's.

As for the R's, their premier county is Lincoln in the southeast where 56% of the 14,000 voters are members of the party of Lincoln. Dems have 50% of the registered voters in the state, but many of them are independent, often crossing over to the R's when the mood suits them.

STATE SENATE FIZZLE?

Late word from Carlsbad and Eddy County has the smart money betting on R Vernon Asbill to take the state senate prize over D Jeff Dimond. The race started hot, the locals say, but has since cooled and the seat, being given up by Don Kidd, is no longer seen as in play. Asbill, a retired Carlsbad School super, switched from the D's to the R's last year. But down that way there isn't always a whole lot of difference.

IF DOGS COULD VOTE...

GOP Public Regulation candidate Ward Camp has been picking up the accolades from the newspapers and even the liberal Sierra Club, but that isn't stopping D Jason Marks from trying to budge the numbers in the mainly ABQ and Republican leaning district. He's gone negative on radio charging that Camp, a former utility lawyer, would be too close to industries he would be regulating. Marks says he would be the consumers' "watchdog." His ad is replete with a barking dog to drive the point home.

ELECTION NIGHT ON KANW 89.1 FM

We will start early Tuesday, Nov. 2 to bring you the important East Coast results. Top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland and other experts will join me for rapid-fire results and analysis on 89.1 FM. It's all made possible by Pfizer, Enterprise rent-a-car, Bill Campbell Realty & NM Legislative Reports. Be sure to join us as we call all the NM races.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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