John Kerry needs either a home run or two doubles and a single at tonight's Prez debate, according to my panel of NM political All-Stars, already on the edge of their chairs anticipating what all agree will be a pivotal moment in Campaign 04'. We grill them today on strategy and bring them back tomorrow for the post-game show.

FIRST BASE

ABQ Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff, playing the game now for over 30 years, says this one is crystal clear.

"Kerry has to deliver a knock out punch because he is the challenger running against the heavy weight champion (incumbent President). A draw is essentially a victory for Bush, since he is ahead. Kerry is perceived as waffling on his positions. Kerry must paint Bush as a man who waffles on his
rationales for his positions."

SECOND BASE

Tim McGivern, managing editor of the ABQ Weekly Alibi, says Kerry has got to get rid of the doubts and then move in for the kill.

"He must dispel the false myths about his Vietnam service, then move to attack Bush's Iraq record. He can make inroads with Iraq from both anti-war voters and conservatives who are very upset with the way the war has been handled. And McGivern warns: "If there is no clear winner tonight, I am not sure voters will hang around for the other two debates. Kerry will have plenty of time to win as long as he carries tonight. I still think it's his to lose," declared the progressive editor in a sharp departure with conventional wisdom.

THIRD BASE

Top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland, who has called elections with me on KANW-FM in ABQ the past 18 years, believes the format may be a problem for Kerry. "It is almost guaranteed to be boring. Kerry has to break through that and come with something that sparkles." Scanland echoed the point made by the other All-Stars that this debate is so important because it will be the most watched. He says the burden of proof is on the senator as "Bush is the known quantity. People still don't know what they are getting with Kerry. He needs to be aggressive because he must move the numbers coming after the debate. This is his best chance," remarked Scanland who once made a run for the NM Legislature.

CATCHER

ABQ Trib political correspondent Shea Andersen says "nobody is running way with the race yet. There have been a lot of junk TV ads but not much else. It's like two boxers. They have done the weigh-in and the pre-fight hype, now they get into the ring one-on-one. Swing voters may be looking to measure Kerry's personality as much as his policies. He has to show them one," Andersen remarked in a late-night phone rap covering the inner workings of La Politica.

THE SHORTSTOP

Democratic activist and pollster Harry Pavlides cuts to the chase: "Kerry has to make a very definitive stand on Iraq. Like McGivern, Pavlides says Kerry must address the controversy over his Vietnam service. "It's hurting him. I'm hearing it even from Democrats." Pavlides says Kerry must walk a fine line tonight and "show that he is smarter than the President, but not come off like a snob." What about the Prez? "He needs to keep Kerry off guard and not look stupid," was the veterans blunt assessment.

BATTING CLEAN-UP

Republican Bruce Donisthorpe is your two doubles and a single guy. "I don't think Kerry needs a homerun because the race is still close. He doesn't need to risk everything and go all in like a Texas Hold Em' game. He needs to establish credibility, look Presidential and when he attacks, not let it get personal with Bush. The president needs to clearly articulate his Iraq policy and touch upon an eventual exit strategy.

THE PITCHER

NM's top political junkie, Big Bill, differs with Bruce. He says Kerry does need a "home run" tonight, putting pressure on the senator to turn the race around. The Guv's opinion reflects the deep level of worry among elite Dems who worry about the polls showing Kerry faltering badly with women voters, a key Dem constituency.

Thanks to all of my debate All-Stars. Join us tomorrow to see if they got what they wanted.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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