The long Labor Day weekend gave the political junkies the luxury of time to digest the latest NM Prez numbers and look to the main stretch of the campaign that begins now. One mystery that has persisted all summer has been the Prez's terrible showing among NM Dems, as low as 11% in one survey and never over 20% in any of the poll. Until now.

The ABQ Journal poll conducted by Research & Polling's Brian Sanderoff broke the Dem ceiling Bush has been bumping up against giving him a whopping 24 percent of state Dems. That may not sound like a lot, but it's just a point or two shy of where he probably needs to finish on Election Night.

But the weekend debate was over whether the poll, which showed W leading Kerry 45 to 42 overall, was a bump from his successful NM visit (see my August report) as well as it being taken during Republican convention week. The consensus seemed to be the convention and visit bumped the Prez and we could be back to square soon. There will be another Journal poll this month and many others as well. You will get all of them only at www.joemonahan.com.

A final word on the poll. I agree with Sanderoff that the good news for Kerry is that most of the 8 per cent who say they are undecided are Hispanics and women. The bad news for Kerry is that he still has work to do to motivate them. Big Bill can expect some phone calls.

STAGE FIGHT IN CRUCES

And speaking of the Big Guy, word comes to us from deep Dem insiders that the sour relationship between him and Attorney General Patsy Madrid broke out into the open recently--at least in the open of those involved at the highest level of Prez politics.

The insiders say the AG wanted to be on the stage in Las Cruces with VP candidate Edwards when he visited NM the same day as the Prez, but Big Bill would have none of it. Despite her pleas to get in the limelight with Edwards, who she backed earlier than anyone, Patsy was rebuffed. She can pick fights with the Guv but it was a none too subtle reminder that he will hit back. After all, he didn't call himself "Fighter for the North" all those years for nothing.

DA PLANE!

It was Big Bill's refusal to get legislative approval for a new state airplane that his critics claimed he would use to hop around the state that put Patsy front and center as she challenged the decision and got a ton of press. It was a rare PR goof for the Guv, and no surprise when he backed off over the weekend. The plane should win easy approval from the Dem dominated Legislature, giving rise to the question: Why wasn't that done in the first place?

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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