New Mexico's political pros had the TV remote in one hand and their phone lines open to La Politica in the other last night as President Bush made his acceptance speech in the Big Apple.
Bush covered a lot of territory, and so it was no surprise that we received a wide variety of opinion on just what W was up to and how it will play in our key battleground state.

Veteran Democratic consultant Harry Pavlides, tracking the action now for 35 years, said it was probably "the best speech he has ever seen Bush give." He appealed to that 10 percent undecided. The appeals on rural health care and health care in general appealed to undecided women. The red meat over gay marriage was aimed at the Evangelical christians still not excited and could help him in SE NM."

However, Pavlides believes the Prez made a tactical mistake going to the abortion issue which he sees cutting in favor of the Dems and could turn women against the Prez. But a Bush Republican told me Bush got away with it because of the subdued language he used.

Pavlides believes Bush has run an effective August campaign and that Kerry has not. He was gleeful that Kerry came out late last night swinging hard at Bush-Cheney. "He's been acting like a Senator, he needs to act like a President. Pavlides also predicted "a move to the left" by Kerry. He didn't have to wait long. Late last night Kerry started to move that way.

WHAT'S AHEAD

Pavlides said Bush will get more of a bounce out of his convention than Kerry. "I think he will move ahead two or three points in NM and maybe five to seven nationally." Will that hold for the next two months? "Only if Kerry does not fight back. He needs to fight back, and now," exclaimed the politico who has consulted a generation of New mexico politicos.

THE R'S REACT

Over on the GOP side, there was a minor difference of opinion on the Prez's performance. Former ABQ Councilor, political strategist and legislative candidate Greg Payne called it "a home run." This was not a speech for the 'red' states or the 'blue' states; this was a speech for all the states," observed the pumped-up Republican. Payne said he is confident of a Bush victory (though not necessarily in NM) because he is willing "to draw a contrast with Kerry." Like Pavlides, Payne agrees that Kerry can get back in the game if he, like Bush, starts the rough stuff.

Bruce Donisthorpe, veteran aide and adviser to NM Congressmen and governors, was more subdued than Payne, but nevertheless gave Bush good marks. "This was a good speech for him. He did not try to come across as something he wasn't, and a lot of people appreciate that. He laid out his message clearly."

Donisthorpe also said he saw clear attempts by the Prez to excite the evangelical Christians who may have stayed home four years, ago. "The abortion and gay marriage were aimed at them, and VP Cheney will go into Roswell this weekend where that message plays best to try to close the deal. Bush needs to peel off conservative D's to win NM and this is part of that effort," said the longtime political junkie in a near-midnight speech post-mortem.

Donisthorpe added that Big Bill still lurks in the Prez race here which he diplomatically called an "organizational challenge for us. Our message is going to have be loud and clear to carry the day." said Donsithorpe as he returned to monitoring three cable TV news networks and the web.

JOURNAL POLL SUNDAY

The first homegrown poll of the New Mexico Prez battle will be out Sunday morning in the Albuquerque Journal when pollster Brian Sanderoff reveals his findings as well as Big Bill's popularity and other issues. Brian was in the field during the R convention so the poll may pick up a bit of that enthusiasm. Otherwise, he told me a couple of weeks ago he felt Kerry had a slight edge in our state as national polls have indicated.

Thanks to my political pros for their insights. When the story is big, this is the place to be for the deepest insights into the rough and tumble world of modern La Politica. Have a great holiday weekend and we'll see you back here Tuesday with more of the stuff that makes our Enchanted Land go round.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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