The beginning of what will be a multimillion dollar wave of media in the battle for NM's ABQ Congressional seat kicked off this week with GOP Rep. Heather Wilson unveiling the first TV spot from any of the Congressional campaigns. She touts her record on job creation and makes a direct play for the thousands of voters whose livelihoods depend on the federal defense establishment.

"It's a safe spot. She is positioning herself as someone who brings home the bacon to the district. She stays away from the hot-button issues such as the Iraq war, her support for Bush or prescription drugs,” analyzed one veteran of Congressional politics.

Wilson's job this go around is not to get too entangled with Bush and his policies, which according to polls, are not serving him all that well in the moderate ABQ district.

Here's the money line from the Wilson thirty second ad: "Heather fought to protect Kirtland Air Force Base by opposing the plan to close more military bases." She might as well have thrown in Sandia Labs too, and the thousands of jobs there. It's what has kept the ABQ seat in the Republican column for over thirty years.

Democrat Richard Romero's campaign, sitting on over half a million in cash, is also expected to hit the airwaves in the coming days. A spokeswoman slammed the new Heather ad saying "Governor Richardson deserves the credit for creating jobs in New Mexico, not Heather Wilson.”

But the spot, produced by the MBGH Agency out of Washington, the same outfit that ran Heather’s winning media campaign against State Senator Romero two years ago, does not give much of an opening to her opponent. It says she supported a job creation program (which one is not mentioned) and lists on screen various transportation projects in the ABQ area that she supported.

INSIDE THE MESSAGE

Some analysts said the spot also sends the message that Wilson, seeking her fourth, two year term, has the clout that New Mexicans like in their Washington Reps. "She is emphasizing what Senator Domenici has made a reputation on--bringing money into the district," said one.

Another observed commented: "Romero's campaign is centered on showing Wilson to be a lapdog of the Bush administration and the far-right leadership in the U.S. House. But she is going to make them work to prove it and play safe until the numbers tell her she has to do it differently. Judging by this spot I think their polling is showing her with a comfortable edge. There is nothing edgy or risky about it,” said our informed politico.

Political junkies may know of MBGH agency chief Mike Murphy. He ran the McCain for Prez campaign in 2000 and many other R efforts. He has been a regular on the cable news-talk circuit and is also an advisor to California Governor Schwarzenegger.

I asked several politicos if Heather was going on earlier than usual and if that might say she is not as comfortable as the spot would have it appear. "Not really. Remember, early voting starts October 2. I don’t think they moved up the schedule. With just five weeks until the vote, you have to move. If anything, Romero should have moved up his schedule," answered one.

It won't just be the Wilson and Romero campaigns flooding the tube in the days ahead. Those so-called "527" groups, not directly connected to either campaign, can be expected to join the fray next month backed by a variety of special interests and their big bucks.

PREZ POLL: STILL KERRY

Another major NM Prez poll shows Kerry ahead of the Prez here and outside the polls margin of error. The Zogby interactive poll--it is internet based--has it Kerry 49.7%, Bush 44.1% Nader 0.7% and "other" at 4.4%. That other is mainly Libertarian hopeful Michael Badnarik who advertised heavily here in August. A mere 1% in the Zogby survey call themselves undecided.

As in last weeks ARG survey, the Prez is suffering mightily from his lack of Dem support. Like ARG, Zogby says W is only getting 11% of the state's majority party voters. Also, the Zogby poll reveals a lot of New Mexicans are pretty sour about the way things are going in the country. Just 41.7% said things are moving in the right direction while 56.7% said things were going the wrong way. Clearly, the Prez, who will vsit NM Thursday, has his work cut out for him in persuading this lean-Kerry state.

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