ABQ North Valley State Senate candidate John Ryan may be trying to put his mistakes of the past behind him by writing an open letter about his troubles to prospective voters, but the political pros don't think you have heard the last of Ryan's youthful escapades.

The 42 year old Republican, seeking the seat being vacated by Ramsay Gorham, sent a letter to 10,000 households explaining his breaking and entering felony conviction when he was 18 years old and asked voters not to hold it against him; that he had learned from his errant ways and was suitable for Roundhouse service.

But Ryan did not mention in his letter that it was the home of prominent ABQ North Valley Republican Shirley Leslie that he broke into and that it was pictures of her dead husband and son that he stole and tried to use to extract ransom from Leslie.

One political pro asks: "What about Shirley? Is she ready to forgive him? Or will she write a letter to counter Ryan's? It's an important question because if the victim of the crime is not ready to forgive him, it could influence whether the voters will."

Another politico with extensive campaign years said it's possible "a third party" such as a victims rights group could still take on Ryan. "Obviously, Ryan was going for a preemptive strike to dilute any future attacks, but I don't think his letter means he has bought immunity, especially because of the blackmail over the photos. Most voters there aren't aware of that part of the story and in his letter he doesn't mention it. I think it leaves him vulnerable to renewed attack."

RAMSAY'S REVENGE?

John Hooker, former Los Ranchos Mayor and Ryan's Democratic Senate rival, has so far let the media carry the load. He calls the whole saga "interesting." Ryan has the support of Senator Domenici who he once worked for, but not of former GOP Party Chair Gorham, who fired Ryan as executive director of the state GOP when she took over from John Dendahl. State Dem Party Chair Wertheim ripped Ryan's letter, but State GOP Chair Allen Weh has been quiet.

Gorham has been out of the state much of the time since being ousted by the Dendahlites from the party boss spot. One source says her home in the North Valley is for sale. But my panel of pros also wonders if Gorham will take on Ryan.

"Ramsay could cause him some serious heartburn if she wrote a letter or did a phone call to Republicans in the district saying they would be better off without him. After all, she has had that senate seat for eight years," declared one strategist.

WHO WINS THIS ONE?

Ryan, who is a lobbyist/consultant with Washington connections, has raised over $30,000 for the contest while Hooker has just 3 grand in the bank. Hooker has not said whether Big Bill's PAC will come thru with cash. The district is 43% Democrat and 41% Republican, but my experts say they expect the district's "voting performance" to be about 54% GOP.

Without his past problems, Ryan would be a shoo-in, but some R's worry that Ryan hit too soon with his preemptive strike and that the Dems may have a shot at the seat. "No one knew who John was. He could have laid some groundwork before announcing to the world his felony conviction. Voters would have had something to compare it with," analyzed one GOP insider.

Still, most smart money gives Ryan the edge in the race. But they are waiting to see polling numbers before making the call. They also want to see what Hooker comes with against Ryan, if anything, and if Big Bill makes a play.

Ryan was pardoned for his youthful crime by GOP Governor Johnson. He is about to find out if the court of public opinion is as forgiving.

ALL BILL, ALL THE TIME

Not Again! Yes, Big Bill's ever-expanding Santa Fe news bureau now has a sports division. Dennis Latta, a 24 year veteran of the ABQ Journal, will pack his bags and head North to head-up Bill's NM Sports Authority, aimed at attracting professional sports exhibitions and the like. Latta's salary was not disclosed when the appointment was announced, but the concept of a sports office is sure to be fodder for the talk-show hosts as NM lacks any major professional sports franchises and already generates a lot of attention and money from the Lobos, Aggies, Isotopes etc.

Latta joins a long line of news reporters who have taken jobs with Big Bill including the Journal's Bill Hume and Loie Fecteau. A bunch of TV news guys are also flacking for the PR heavy Guv. Maybe we should add Editor-in Chief to his job description.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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