Big Bill fell victim to his own hype Friday when he said John Kerry and John Edwards were the first Prez team to campaign together in our fair state, according to top NM Republicans hot under the collar about the Guv's boast widely reported in NM media.

These R's point out that George Bush and Dick Cheney campaigned together back in August of 2000 in Las Cruces, making them the first Prez team to walk the soil of La Politica together. Turns out they are right as this piece from the August 20, 2000 ABQ Journal demonstrates.

"MESILLA — Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush and running mate Dick Cheney reached out to Hispanic voters and others Saturday in southern New Mexico with a message of "inclusiveness and unity."

Big Bill, caught up in the frenzy of the moment as some 10,000 supporters of the Dem Prez team rallied at the the Hispanic Cultural Center, may have fuzzy recall of his NM Prez campaign history, but he and other insider Dems are smiling over the latest Prez poll numbers. The American Research Group (ARG) survey confirms the deep trouble Bush is in here with Democrats. Now no one expects the Prez to carry the D's but he has to get a sizable chunk of them in overwhelmingly Democratic NM to grab our precious five electoral voters,

But the ARG survey, conducted July 6 through 8, backs up what the Zogby interactive poll has been showing--only 12% of the D's polled here say they will vote for the Prez. Simply put, he cannot win this state with such a low percentage. The question arises what will peel them off at this relatively late stage?

WHAT WILL THEY DO?

The Bush campaign apparently thinks a tough negative campaign will. They took out a full page attack ad against Kerry in the ABQ newspapers last week. That showed the political community here the Bushies are in a fix. When was the last time any political campaign of note spent big bucks advertising in the newspapers? It's just not done. But Kerry, according to two polls now, has solidified the Dem base, and in the ARG polls he beats Bush with independents 49% to 38%. In the overall horse race, Kerry has a seven point lead over the Prez. Zogby also has it for Kerry by a similar margin

Some politicos have put the heat on this blog for running the Zogby numbers, saying the interactive nature of the poll, relying on e-mail, is not scientific. But how can they explain it away when a poll conducted by conventional means shows the same thing?

My unscientific gut has been telling me that New Mexico may not remain a swing state when we hit October. While it is too early to put our Enchanted Land in the Kerry column, all objective analysis points in that direction,. Of course, there is time for the Bush team to rebound, but they have to be concerned that already too much of the available vote is nailed down. Only 6% of the NM electorate says it is undecided, according to ARG and Zogby. Don't be surprised if some of the national analysts starting calling NM a 'lean Kerry" state in the weeks ahead.

BOTTOM LINE

Whitney Cheshire, who grabbed a moment of fame, when she was named to replace Tom Carroll as executive director of the NM Republican Party after a staff purge by new Chairman Allen Weh, is no longer associated with the state GOP or, according to R sources, with the NM Bush campaign where she went to work when Greg Graves took over as permanent executive director.

Cheshire previously worked in PR for then congressional candidate and now Congressman Steve Pearce and 2001 ABQ Mayoral candidate Mike McEntee.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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