Chavez
There’s still a chance that the battle for a NM Supreme Court seat could turn out to be hotly contested, but don’t count on it. That's because Republican Ned Fuller doesn’t have much money to count while his opponent, Justice Ed Chavez, appointed to fill a vacancy on the court by Big Bill, has a stack of the green stuff totaling $165,000. That’s about a 25 to one advantage over Fuller who has just $6,000 on hand and an equal amount of debt.

Back in February we wrote of the possibility that Fuller, 38, could get big bucks from U.S. Chamber of Commerce backed groups to take out Democrat and trial lawyer Chavez, (See my Feb. 6 report in my archives) but so far it appears the sources floating that story were blowing smoke. It’s true that such groups got involved in a big way in an Ohio Supreme Court battle, but Fuller tells me he “has had no contact” with any such organizations or individuals, never mind getting any of their cash.

The Chavez campaign used that Feb. report to raise money and, who knows, it may have been planted with us for that very reason. Nothing like a good right-wing scare to free-up that loose trial lawyer change. Not that Chavez, 47, is not favored to win anyway. There are no Republicans on the five member court and none has been up there since the 1980's.

But Fuller did have one arrow in his quiver that he fired effectively at Chavez: drug testing for judges in the wake of the cocaine arrest of Bernalillo County Chief District Judge John Brennan. But Chavez did not take the bait and agreed to take a drug test as did Fuller.

Looking at history, political pros say an Anglo Republican like Fuller, running against a Hispanic Democrat, should break the 40% mark with or without significant money. But the magic number is 50% and it appears Fuller and the GOP are going to have to pull a rabbit out of their hat to get there, or else make some urgent phone calls to the Chamber of Commerce.

KERRY/EDWARDS: AN EARLY NM KILL?

Big Bill is managing expectations when it comes to how Senators Kerry and Edwards will do in our Land of Enchantment come Election Night. Last night on CNN, Richardson predicted a Kerry win here but only "narrowly." Bill says most polls have the race here essentially tied, but that he would work to "get out the base" and help put Kerry over the top. The Big Guy had to be disappointed as he was passed over early by Kerry for the number two spot, but he is a pro and will be expected to bring this state home. If he shows any hesitation, it would damage his reputation among Democrats nationally so even a disappointed Big Bill will be a powerful weapon for Kerry here.

Ironically, most informed Republicans I have spoken with predict a Kerry win here, while the Dems are pessimistic about Kerry's chances. The R's see the Democratic base charged up with many R's only lukewarm for the Prez. If that's the case, the trends will become clear soon enough and NM would fall off the list of "battleground states." That would mean a lot less Presidential presence here during the final months. It's not written in stone that we will stay a 'swing' state the entire campaign. Remember, NM has voted for the Dem nominee three times in a row and has a Dem governor and legislature. If Team Kerry cannot bring this Dem state into line early it could point to another cliffhanger nationally or a Bush victory. Stay tuned.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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