Dick Cheney can't get to New Mexico soon enough as the latest Zogby interactive poll shows Senator Kerry with his biggest lead yet in the state and the biggest lead in any of the sixteen battleground states Zogby is polling.

The grim numbers for Team Bush are as follows: Kerry--52% Bush--42.2% Nader--0.9%. That's a 9.8% lead for Kerry, the largest of the five Zogby polls conducted thus far and the second one that has put him over the magic 50% level. The margin of error in the poll, done July 19-23, is plus or minus 4.4%. 499 New Mexicans participated.

"August may be a do or die month for the President," opined one top Republican who has worked at all levels of politics. "The real trouble for Bush is not just in the horse race, but in how voters here feel about the direction of the country. Only 39% believe the country is on the 'right track' compared to 57% who feel it's on the 'wrong track.'"

New Mexican women are especially sour on the direction of the country. By a margin of two to one they say wrong track. Also, Bush is getting clobbered in Albuquerque in the Zogby survey with Kerry garnering nearly 58% of the vote.

"I expect to hear the negative drumbeat on Kerry at full decibels in the weeks ahead. Bush has the next month and the GOP convention week in early September to get this thing out of the mud, otherwise New Mexico will probably be written off," said our Republican analyst.

Other analysts say Hispanic Democrats coming home to their natural party is largely responsible for the Kerry move. But he is also running well in Anglo Dem country in SE NM in the latest survey.

All in all it's not a pretty picture that will confront Vice-president Cheney when he campaigns in Rio Rancho this weekend. With he election still three months out there is time for a turnaround. But the tick-tock of the clock is growing louder by the week for Team Bush. Clearly, nothing less than the Guns of August will be needed to start turning this one around.

BIG BILL'S WORLD

Big Bill took on the world in a ten minute speech to the Democratic convention last night that did not do much to rouse the crowd but helped Kerry frame the "go it alone" approach to world affairs he condemns Bush for pursuing, Bill made sure he got in some plugs for himself as well. The AP's Deborah Baker of NM filed the key quote from our Guv:

"I was able to negotiate the release of hostages from dictators and thugs . . . unite the UN Security Council around American interests . . . solidify sometimes shaky ties with our closest neighbors in Latin America," the first-term governor and former energy secretary said."

Perhaps Bill still has his eye on the Secretary of State's position. But politicos think it's a long shot if Kerry indeed wins. They are putting diplomat Richard Holbrooke, Senator Joe Biden and even Al Gore on the list but not Big Bill. But if Kerry loses the Prez race it starts all over again and that brings you back to our ever-ambitious Guv.

THE OGLE COUNTDOWN

It appears the political career of ABQ NE Heights State Rep. Rory Ogle is about to come to an abrupt end. Republican insiders on Wednesday were nearly unanimous in telling me they think Rory has to go after being charged with wife-beating (see my Wednesday report) and domestic violence. "It's a matter of hours, not weeks, before he throws in the towel," declared one.

The sources also told me when Ogle resigns his seat look for a woman to replace him on the ballot. "It would send the right message for sure." said one. Ogle has sought counseling in the aftermath of the incident, admitting there was a problem. But top Republicans are determined not to let Ogle make his personal problem theirs. Not when their own campaign trails are about to turn red-hot.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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