The legislative days of State Rep. Rory Ogle may be numbered after his arrest on wife-beating charges, according to insider Republicans monitoring the developing situation.

"Rory is unopposed for re-election, but these charges are so hot that they could have an impact on the party as a whole. I think the pressure is going to mount and mount intensely for him to resign soon. This is also a test for (new State GOP Chair) Allen Weh," said one R with top-level state party experience.

If Ogle does call it quits, the Bernalillo County GOP Central Committee would name a ballot replacement. But what if Ogle resists resignation?

"If he fights and decides to try to hang on he will become a pariah. Domestic violence charges are one of those hot-button issues that the Democrats would find easy to use against Rory and all Republicans. If he plans on fighting, he will be doing it alone," declared our R insider.

Ogle easily defeated Democrat John Mondragon in 2002 taking 62% of the vote. He got the seat when Rep. Joe Mohorovic resigned it to take a job in Washington and the county central committee named Ogle as his ballot replacement, a situation that could play out yet again if Ogle feels the heat and gets out.

The Democrats did not put up any challenger to Ogle this year, but State Dem party Chair Wertheim can be counted on not to let the Ogle incident go unnoticed. "If Rory stays in, Wertheim will put a target on his back. That could hurt (Congresswoman) Wilson and even President Bush. Do Republicans want to be questioned about whether they support Ogle? I don't think so," weighed in our R analyst.

MORE OGLE ANGLES


Another angle worth mentioning: Since the Bernalillo County Central Committee is stacked with members loyal to former State GOP Chair Ramsay Gorham the replacement appointment, if it comes, can be expected to reflect that. However, the Dendahlites, followers of former GOP chair John Dendahl and his chief ally, lawyer/lobbyist Mickey Barnett, could make a play for the seat. But the numbers are against them on the committee.

Ogle could stand and fight. There is no law that says he has to step down. But if he is convicted of felony domestic violence and aggravated battery his day of reckoning will only be postponed, not denied.

2004 is going down as the year of the political scandal in New Mexico. First, the DWI bust of GOP State Rep. Joe Thompson, then the ABQ District Court cocaine scandal featuring Chief Judge John Brennan. Now the Rory Ogle wife-beating episode. What must Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico be thinking?

CHENEY'S CHOO-CHOO

Vice-president Dick Cheney will be in Rio Rancho this week, but not on Thursday as was first reported here. Cheney will make his appearance Saturday in the key suburban area next to ABQ. Senator Kerry will accept his party's Prez nomination Thursday night. Cheney will be here Saturday to put a shadow over some of the glow that will be coming out of Boston in the aftermath of the Dems big party. Call 505-342-2004 if interested in getting a ticket.

THE GREAT BLOG CONTEST

It's the Washington Post blog contest. Right wing. Left wing. Indifferent. Irreverent. There's a blog for every taste, opinion and attitude. washingtonpost.com's 2004 Best Blogs - Politics and Elections Readers' Choice Awards is your chance to speak out and vote for your favorite politics and election blogs. Feel free to throw our blog into the mix.

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