For the first time in three surveys, soon-to-be Dem Prez nominee John Kerry cracks the magic 50% mark in the interactive New Mexico Zogby poll. My insiders are tracking the numbers and report in that Kerry gets 50%, Bush garners 43% and Ralph Nader just 1% in the poll conducted June 14-20 and that sports a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4%.

"The bad news in this poll is how Bush is running with Democrats. He gets only 12%. He must bring that number up, or he is going to lose this state," predicted one analyst who is studying the numbers.

Bush does get a solid 93% among NM Republican voters but this is a Democratic state and there simply are not enough R's here for him to carry the day. "Bush needs to get a quarter or more of the Democrats if he is gong to win in November. Another concern for him is his weakening support in this poll in smaller cities and rural areas. That's the first time we have seen that,"commented my deep insider.

In the last survey conducted June 1-6 Kerry and Bush were tied at 48% each. The poll is conducted via e mail with Zogby taking safeguards to get an accurate measurement. Here's more from Zogby himself:

"Mr. Kerry wins a 52% overall approval rating here, and is favored by 58% of women, compared to 45% of men who give him the thumbs-up. Among singles, 72% like him, compared to 42% of married New Mexicans. Overall, 44% in the state give Mr. Bush a positive overall approval rating, while just 41% approve of the job he is doing as President."

Still, while the latest NM results are not good for the Prez, nationally Zogby has Bush winning re-election in his latest results, narrowly beating Kerry in electoral votes.

KERRY GEOGRAPHY: TAKE TWO

While Kerry appears to be doing well here that isn't keeping some of his supporters from being on edge. I received several critical e mails for my report yesterday questioning the wisdom of Kerry going back to UNM for a second campaign appearance, an appearance that never came off because Kerry canceled to go vote on a bill in D.C. That vote never came up but it did keep the senator off the campaign trail. We wrote of the opinion of some strategists that Kerry needs to start working different areas of the state.

One e mailer thought this meant that we were attacking Kerry for ignoring Northern Hispanics or suburbanite Rio Rancho residents. Sorry, e mailers, but we were commenting on tactics. It just seems strange that Kerry would go to the same location twice when there is so much to cover. For those Kerryites with sensitive skins, get ready for more. This is the Presidency of the U.S. we are talking about in a key swing state. We are going to be on this like peanut butter on jelly and every move he makes for our precious five electoral votes will be measured and weighed, not to mention where and how the candidate spends each and every precious moment he allocates to our beloved Land of Enchantment. Don't say we didn't tell you.

RONCHETTI'S ROOTERS

He's Outta Here
Fans of KOAT-TV weather entertainer Mark Ronchetti were disappointed to learn from our blog that Mark is headed to Portland Oregon. We broke that story a couple of weeks ago and now the fans are saying he may be staying because he is still on the air. But we are told this is Ronchetti's last week and he is, as we reported, headed to gray sky country.

We are still awaiting definitive news on KOB TV weather guru Larry Rice, who insiders say is eying the exits. Another media Larry, Larry Ahrens of KKOB-AM Radio, told me last week his contract talks have hit a snag and he has visited with KRQE-TV about a possible gig. Word is that gig could be the noon news anchor duties. When we hear something you will be the first to know.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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