BURPO
A late flurry of campaigning in key legislative and other races is swamping voters' mailboxes and keeping their phone lines humming. The Barnett-Dendahl wing of the split NM GOP seems to have narrowed its focus in the final critical days, looking now for hard-fought upsets against Rep. Bob White in the ABQ NE Heights and Rob Burpo in the far Heights who is challenging Dendahlite Larry Larranaga.

Greg Payne appears safe to win the GOP nomination against Bill Rehm for the seat being vacated by Mickey Barnett right-hand-man Joe Thompson. Kathy McCoy, running against Dendahlite Mario Burgos and Charles Mellon in ABQ's East Mountains also appears set for victory, thus the Barnett troops are being repositioned to help White rival Justine Fox-Young and to foil Burpo.

"That's where the big money is going. Vicious attacks are underway by all sides. It could
drive voter turnout even lower than we expect, if voters turn off to the negative messages,"
said one veteran Republican.

The Republicans are dominating this primary election cycle, offering several intra-party wars. Because Governor Bill has endorsed incumbents, his interference in the Dem primary is seen as less controversial.

"Bill has played it smart and safe. Most of his candidates are easy winners. But Barnett has taken a major gamble by taking on incumbents. If he loses, the long knives will come out and come out fast," predicted another GOP war watcher.

THE LONG KNIVES

Word is that those knives are already being sharpened as some Republicans are starting a letter-writing campaign against Barnett and in support of George Buffet, who is challenging Mickey for his Republican National Committeeman post at the June GOP convention.

"Old line R's let Barnett and Dendahl take out Ramsay Gorham from the state chairmanship, but the viciousness of their attacks on sitting Republican legislators has finally put them over the top. If (GOP Chair) Weh does not take a stand, others will and they are warming up now."

"How can you have two state parties? Asked a longtime Republican. "The answer is, you can't.
Now we have Bush headed for defeat here and believe me, if he goes down, Mickey, Dendahl and Rod Adair are going to be shown the door," remarked a Republican who has ties to both factions.

But other Republicans are less forceful saying they have heard that before, yet the breakaway wing of the party persists because so many Republicans have walked away from the mess and no serious leadership has emerged to heal the strife. But, if Burpo, White and McCoy win Tuesday night, Barnett and company may finally get the real war it may take to clear the decks once and for all. The final outcome will determine the legitimate leadership of the New Mexico Republican Party. But for now, New Mexico is in the Kerry column, the Dem Guv is riding high and more GOP blood is about to be spilled Tuesday night.

ELECTION 04': WE'VE GOT YOU COVERED

So, who will be the big winners next Tuesday night? Is it predictable? Well, my panel of experts on KANW 89.1 FM will do their best this afternoon at 5 p.m. when we do our live Election Night pre-game show. ABQ GOP State Senator Kent Cravens, Terry Brunner, state office director for Senator Bingaman, top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland and ABQ Tribune chief political writer Shea Andersen are the experts. I will be on hand to hold their feet to the fire and report how they did when we bring you Primary election 04' live Tuesday night starting at 6:30 p.m. also on KANW which has a nice strong signal and is heard throughout northcentral NM. We'll also have exclusive early results from key precincts so be sure you are on hand for both these special programs.

And, join me again Friday night at 8:30 p.m. on KNME-TV (Channel 5) when I analyze Primary 04' with one of NM's most seasoned political correspondents, Kate Nelson, anchor of the "In Focus" program and managing editor of the ABQ Tribune.

Make our site---www.joemonahan.com--one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details. And thanks for e-mailing me your news tips and comments. There's a link at the top right of this page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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