New Mexico is going Kerry, if a new interactive poll from the Zogby group has it right. The poll, conducted May 18 thru the 23, shows the Prez losing his grip fast on our swing state. Kerry pulls 48.4% to Bush's 43.3. Independent Ralph Nader grabs 2.9% and just a slim 5.4% are undecided. The margin of error in the poll is pegged at 4.6%. But keep in mind that this was an "interactive" poll, meaning Zogby sent e mails to likely voters in the 16 battleground states. He has safeguards and I know one person who participated in the NM poll, but still this is not a traditional phone poll.

Yet, the numbers ring true and reflect Bush's national plunge. In an AIG survey at the beginning of May, Bush held a one point lead over Kerry. Without question, the Democrats in New Mexico are energized. They may not love Kerry but they want Bush gone. New Mexico's Republican party, currently in a state of civil war, has all the more incentive to try to find a way out of the mess, as the glory days of the Bush presidency fade into history and is now being reflected in survey after survey.

YNTEMA: UNPRONOUNCEABLE, BUT ELECTABLE?

He's been around the political scene for nearly 20 years, but his name remains a tongue twister. Yet, Hess Yntema, according to a wide range of GOP observers, is poised to win the GOP nomination for the ABQ Public Regulation commission (PRC) seat when we count the votes live on June 1 starting at 6:30 p.m. on KANW 89.1 FM radio.

The two term SE ABQ city councilor kept his name in the news the past four years and is being challenged by two lesser know contenders; utility expert Ward Camp and ABQ City Councilor Tina Cummins, sister of Bernalillo County Commissioner Tim Cummins who is also running Tuesday.

Yntema has run a low-key campaign and only hit the mail this week. Meanwhile, Camp has surprised some by mounting a respectable media effort that includes mail, billboards and, starting today, radio ads. Tina has been more quiet with no real visible media. Yntema alienated some conservative Republicans with his liberal environmental stands while on the council and that could nick him Tuesday. But as the only candidate with two successful elections under his belt, newspaper endorsements and name ID that stretches back to the 80's, this one is Yntema's to lose.

CAMPAIGN ON THE DIAL

The three GOP hopefuls for the State House seat being vacated by Rep. Ron Godbey take to the airwaves at KKNS 1310 AM radio in ABQ this afternoon at 5 p.m. for a final square-off. Mario Burgos and Kathy McCoy are the top contenders for the far NE Heights and East Mountain seat, with psychiatrist Charles Mellon also on the ballot. Godbey fended off challenges from the Barnett-Dendahl right wing of the GOP. Kathy picks up his banner while Mario is in the Barnett camp.(Late word from McCoy--She will not make the show because she is busy walking her district)

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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