ELI CHAVEZ
According to my political experts, it's not clear just how much congressional hopeful Richard Romero helped himself when he went to court and successfully kicked Eli Chavez off of the June 1 primary ballot. The Dem primary is now a two man derby between State Senator Romero and ER doctor Miles Nelson. Chavez, a retired DEA agent, was ruled off the ballot by a Romero challenge for failing to come up with enough valid petition signatures. On the surface this seems good news for Richard. My experts say Chavez was positioned to get 3 to 5% of the vote, even though he had no money and no name ID. If Nelson was able to get the race in play, those mainly Hispanic votes could be crucial to Romero.

But the big issue is Romero's own standing in the large Hispanic community. Here's how one Dem insider frames it: "First, Richard joined with the senate Republicans and challenged Manny Aragon for the preisdent pro tem position and won. Then, in the 2002 campaign against Heather, he crowed about that success while attacking Aragon in a TV spot. Now, he has strong-armed a very weak candidate in Eli Chavez. It was like using an elephant's foot to crush a fly. He'll win this thing with or without Eli on the ballot. His challenge may help him get a few more points in the primary, but it may end up hurting him with Hispanics in November," said one politico who has followed the action in the 1st Congressional District since its inception over 30 years ago.

In reporting on this race, I earlier wrote that Romero was "landslided" by Heather in 02'. That drew some questioning on what constitutes a landslide. Well, according to the final figures from the Secretary of State's web site, Heather garnered 55.3% of the vote to Richard's 44.7%. That's a 10.6% victory margin. My benchmark for a "landslide" is generally at least 10 points, which in this case fits the bill. However, others have their benchmark set at a candidate getting at least 60% of the vote in a two-way race. I will split the difference and call Heather's win "overwhelmingly decisive."

There's some discouraging news this week for the D's as they try to unseat Republican Heather as well as Steve Pearce down south. The "political oddsmaker" from Campaigns & Elections Magazine, who boasts of a 98% accuracy rate, is out with his latest odds on NM's congressional races. He ups the chances of Heather winning to 3 to 2 or 60%. Ditto for freshman U.S. Rep. Pearce. With those kinds of odds, the Romero challenge to Chavez looks more like a gamble than a sure thing.

PEARCE UNDER THE LIGHTS

National Republicans trotted out Vietenam War veteran and NM GOP Rep. Pearce last night to take on John Kerry on the Hannity & Colmes gabfest on Fox News. It was a rare event for Pearce, a decorated fighter pilot, who was asked to carry water for the GOP for their attacks against Kerry for alleged flip-flops on whether he tossed away his Vietnam medals at protests in the early 70's.

Pearce gave a serviceable interview, but was slammed hard when he overstepped and tried to compare Kerry to then-radical anti-war activist and actress Jane Fonda. Liberal Colmes shut Pearce down quickly, but he rebounded with an attack on Kerry's "credibility" over his various explanations on just what he threw away way back then. Finally, Pearce, perhaps playing to his God fearing SE NM constituents, tossed in a hit against gay marriage, indicating Kerry was not firm enough in his opposition.

Comparing Heather's recent national TV shots with Pearce's, it would seem the two are on equal footing. What Pearce lacks in charisma he makes up with subject command. Heather is a bit slow to rise in interviews, but manages to exude a bit of personality and charm (excluding her over-the-top rant against TV executives earlier this year). Why should we care? Heather and Pearce could very well face each other some day for higher political office in NM.

HORSING AROUND: NM MAKES THE DERBY

Who doesn’t love a good horse race? Let's veer slightly from daily politics to share an exciting New Mexico sports story.

Sunland Park Racetrack & Casino owner Stan Fulton announces he will have a horse running in the "most exciting 2 minutes in sport"--The Kentucky Derby. Fulton's horse, St. Averil, a 3 year old, dark bay colt will Run for the Roses in Louisville, Kentucky on May 1st.

Fulton's lobbyist, Scott Scanland, tells us that St. Averil has been listed as a contender on the Kentucky Derby web site for weeks. "This horse has a real shot at winning because the 3 year old ranks are wide open this year. It's great for New Mexico and great for New Mexico horse racing,” said Scanland. Other Derby contenders include Smarty Jones, Lion Heart and Wimbledon.

Sunland knows something about thoroughbred racing having hosted the 2nd running of the $500,000 WinStar Derby for 3 year old horses in March. That race followed the WinStar Oaks, a $250,000 race for 3 year old Philly's.

Fulton has also made his presence known in New Mexico public affairs through big donations since becoming the owner of Sunland in 2001. He has given nearly $4 million dollars for a new building at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces, $500,000 to New Mexico Highlands University and a $1 million dollars to the Gadsden Public School District. But Fulton is sticking to horse races. He is not a politico, and as a resident of Nevada, is not eleigible to run here, but his horses are and they are off and running. Good luck to St. Averil.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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