Hull and Haaland

The first major public poll of the '26 gubernatorial chase seems to rule out a blow-out win by Democrat Deb Haaland but nudges only slightly, if at all, that big boulder that lies on the path to victory for Republican Gregg Hull. 

The ABQ Journal survey conducted August 21-28 among 516 likely voters with a margin of error of 4.3 percent shows Haaland with 49 percent Hull at 43 and 8 percent undecided. 

The poll was perceived as a blow to Haaland because expectations have been running higher than that 49 percent--whcih is one point shy of the magic 50 percent.  Her superior fund-raising, higher name ID and the Democratic lean of the state were the reasons. But the poll is in line with past ones that pointed to an eventual Democratic win. That includes 2018 when MLG was ahead of Republican Steve Pearce 50 to 43 in an early September survey, nearly identical to this year's first Journal poll. She won that race 57 to 43 percent.

In 2022 in the late August Journal survey MLG sported a 47 to 40 margin over Republican Mark Ronchetti in the late August Journal poll. She went on to win by 6.4 percent. 

The last time a Republican won the gubernatorial contest was in 2010 and everyone saw it coming as Diane Denish trailed Susana Martinez 45 to 39 in the Journal's late August survey and went on to beat Democrat Denish 53 to 47 percent. 

While Haaland clearly lost the expectations game and gave Hull something to shoot for, the national handicappers who rate the race "solid Democratic" are unlikely to change their ratings based on the survey. If they did, it could boost the cash coffers of the former three term Rio Rancho mayor.

The poll barely registered with the bettors placing cash wagers on the outcome. On Polymarket Sunday after the poll was released Haaland had a 93 percent chance of victory to Hull's six percent.

MONAHAN'S RULE 

In the ABQ metro Haaland is beating Hull 56 to 39 percent. The populous metro has been key to the Dems long string of statewide wins--no statewide executive office (Governor, land commissioner etc.) has gone to a Republican since Susana Martinez was re-elected in 2014. The R's last statewide win was in 2016 for a state supreme court seat. Until the key ABQ metro again becomes competitive the state will stay uncompetitive. 

Still, the poll could serve to dampen any smugness that the Haaland camp has over having to fight fiercely for the Fourth Floor--to use one of her favorite adjectives. A major mishap could still put the race in play as could a poorly run effort in the final eight weeks.  

Hull's campaign remains cash-starved. Big oil Republicans have essentially boycotted him, some of them apparently miffed that their favorite for the GOP nomination, Doug Turner, was turned away by primary voters in favor of Hull. We'll see if Hull's decent polling performance reverses their lack of enthusiasm.

Haaland with her national reputation has raised a staggering $14 million. It's a record amount and as we said another reason the poll did not meet those higher expectations. 

ROOTING FOR A RACE 

The managing editor of the Republican-leaning Journal took the unusual step of publishing a front-page commentary celebrating the relative closeness of the race in their poll saying, "so much for the coronation." But Brian Sanderoff, the paper's longtime and estimable pollster, did not appear convinced that there is now a true "horse race" as the headline over the editor's commentary claimed. He opined:

It’s narrower than many people expected, including me, Despite the fact the race is closer than expected, Gregg Hull still faces an uphill battle.

CANDIDATES REACT 

(click to enlarge)

Haaland's camp, which all summer has been trying to motivate donors by claiming she was six points behind in some polling, did not have anything to say about the Journal's survey that shows her actually six points ahead. She could, of course, use that characterization of the contest as a "horse race" to excite donors as well as Democratic voters she needs to go to the polls. 

For his part Hull did all he could to gin up enthusiasm over the narrower than expected lead Haaland commands, exclaiming that "they said it would be a blowout. It isn't." He also claimed he was now within "striking distance" of Haaland.

But Hull's pleas for money following the poll revealed that time is growing short to raise the millions he will need to compete in the final two months and this poll must mark a pivot from his dismal performance in that regard:

Eight percent of New Mexico voters have not made up their minds yet, and. . . my opponent will use her advantage to flood the airwaves from now until November 3. She will spend millions telling New Mexicans who I am before I get the chance to tell them myself. I am not going to let that happen. But I need to be on television, on the radio, and in mailboxes in every corner of this state at the same time she is, and that takes resources we have to raise right now. 

Haaland will definitely be on all forms of broadcast media and soon. And if there is only a minimal Hull presence she could quickly pull ahead in the polling to come.  

ANGLO ANGLE 

A Dem consultant pointed out that the poll shows Anglo voters favoring Hull 48 to 46 percent, helping to keep her lead over Hull in the mid-single digits. He theorized:

The Dems taking on a significant Socialist wing may be helping a Blue Dog mentality taking hold among some Anglo men in particular--and they have been early deciders for Hull. That got him quickly to that base conservative vote of 43 percent. These were votes against her not for him. He remains largely unknown.

WHAT HULL MUST DO

Republican analyst Jamie Estrada does some heavy lifting on exactly where the Republican nominee stands in the aftermath of the Journal survey. He begins with the last time a Republican was elected governor:

Eighteen months before the 2010 election the Republican primary candidates made their campaigns about tying Lt. Gov Diane Denish to Gov. Bill Richardson’s corruption. Over time they persuaded enough voters. Unfortunately for Republicans, MLG’s administration is not the same kind of target Richardson’s was. There are, however, examples of grave incompetence, especially CYFD, and during Deb Haaland’s term as Interior Secretary she raised real questions about her competence. Those concerns are showing up again in her interviews and candidate forums. Hull has not been making the case against the Democrats' incompetence or corruption. In fact, he has made it clear that he will not run a negative campaign. So, will this poll finally convince Republican donors to get off the sidelines? It's doubtful given his stubborn refusal to draw sharper contrasts. Being a statesman and aggressively pointing out Haaland’s weaknesses and terrible policies are not mutually exclusive. What’s worse is that Haaland might raise millions off this poll, arguing that she needs more money to get over the finish line. 

DEM GATOR TAKE 

A Senior Alligator of the Dem variety found the poll interesting but was nonplussed by the closer than expected margin: 

That poll seems reflective of a pretty low profile race--perhaps a bit of oversampling of independents and some big assumptions on name ID. Undecideds are low. I can’t believe that Gregg Hull is as well-known as this poll portrays. He has had zero media and few voters know that he was mayor of Rio Rancho. I think when Haaland gets on the air with a heavy presence, Democrats will come home and the anti-Trump energy will overwhelm Hull. But Sanderoff's poll pleases the Journal and their conservative readers. Maybe they believe the Democrats are lazy and will stay home. 

That Gator pointing out that Haaland has stayed dark on paid broadcast media over the summer is notable but underdog and under-financed Hull was also dark and unable to force her into the daylight. 

HIDING THE BALL 

Hide the ball continues to be Haaland's strategy and she is avoiding joint appearances with Hull. Will that change in light of her losing the polling expectations game? State Republicans are starting the drumbeat:

Some of the most influential organizations in our state have provided candidates an opportunity to answer questions and explain their vision. Gregg Hull has shown up. Deb Haaland has not. At the Association of Counties annual conference, Hull was there and Haaland was a no-show. At the Alliance of Health Councils forum, Hull showed up to discuss healthcare with community and tribal health leaders--Haaland did not. (Dem. Lt. Gov. candidate) Stephanie Garcia Richard appeared instead. Then, at last week’s Municipal League Annual Conference in Las Cruces, Hull again appeared  while Garcia Richard substituted for Haaland . . .Deb Haaland wants New Mexicans to elect her as our state’s next governor, but Stephanie Garcia Richard is becoming the one sent into the room to answer questions. The governor will be responsible for a multibillion-dollar state government. . .Gregg Hull isn't asking someone else to explain what he believes. He isn't avoiding organizations whose members may ask difficult questions. That should matter to New Mexico voters. 

The two candidates have made one joint appearance. That was at a meeting in mid-August of an ABQ business group. The newspaper described the session as "congenial" with neither candidate attacking the other. 

Only one TV debate is scheduled thus far. Haaland has agreed to face off with Hull on KOB in mid-October. Haaland rejected one proposed by KOAT and the Journal. 

Haaland, as the state GOP infers, is obviously trying to protect herself from committing a major gaffe by fumbling hard policy questions and giving Hull the opportunity to compare and contrast his views with hers. Pressure will and should grow on her to come out hiding if she is to avoid the nickname No Show Haaland. A wanna be Governor just like a sitting one needs to project confidence. Haaland needs to dig deeper and make that list of no shows much shorter. 

As for the polling the Journal will have another in October not far from the November 3 election which is rapidly coming into sight. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. 

Labels: 2026 Journal poll, Deb Haaland, Gregg Hull, New Mexico governor.

If they're going to move the New Mexico presidential primary to February 15, 2008 instead of holding it late in the nominating cycle in June, how about a favorite son candidate (or is it favorite daughter now)? 

As the fourth state to go up to bat under a Democratic National Committee recommendation, a local yokel would have a shot at first place but could spoil the party for the national heavyweights who will be trekking here if the calendar is finalized by the DNC next month. 

The starting states would be: South Carolina, January 22, 2028; Nevada, February 1, 2028; New Hampshire, February 8, 2028; New Mexico, February 15, 2028; Michigan, February 22, 2028; Virginia, February 29, 2028

How about Deb Haaland for president? We know. Say it ain't so, Joe! We would if every sitting governor since Gary Johnson in the 90's hadn't toyed with the national spotlight. Dem Bill Richardson ran a serious campaign for the nation's top job and Johnson secured the Libertarian Party presidential nomination in 2016.  

How about MLG? She's been pushing the hardest for the earlier primary, citing our status as majority-minority border state with Hispanics and Native Americans dominating. The Governor's national star was tarnished when President Biden quietly rejected her for a cabinet post but if in '28 the then former governor is looking for work, what's to stop her?

Haaland still has an election to deal with in the here and now before she gets starry-eyed over her national prospects, if she does at all. But her path to the governor's office is looking like a well-lighted stroll under a full moon. With less than 100 days to go Polymarket bettors give her an 89 percent chance of victory. Noted political predictor Larry Sabato and his Crystal Ball has joined the pundits at DC's Cook Political report in ranking her race against Republican Gregg Hull "safe Democratic." 

That's as good as it gets and unless Hull can shake her loose by forcing a major mistake, she is going to keep smiling and hawking salsa on the socials before getting overly serious about policy. Certainly the political consultants are not going to let her stray. After raising $14 million her campaign has plenty of them who remind her each day to look busy but say little. 

'08 AND '28

An early Dem presidential primary was actually conducted here in February 2008 when Hillary Clinton enjoyed a very narrow win over Barack Obama. (We filed this report in the wee morning hours before Hillary put it away a day later.)

The primary was novel but not without problems. The state Dem Party decided to provide only one polling place for the entire city of Rio Rancho. Voters stood in line for a long wait scowling and taking the name of Dem Party Chair Brian Colon in vain in a variety of ways--most of them starting with the letter "F."

Dem Sen. Mark Kelly is thinking about running for president in '28. He's from just across the way in Arizona so we would put him up near the top of the list of possible candidates who would benefit from an early NM primary. But he full field has yet to form and the only certainties for an early primary are that every candidate will visit Barelas Coffee House for the mandatory enchilada lunch (posole if they insist) and the TV ads will be ubiquitous.

THE CBS SHOCKER

Speaking of campaign TV ads, in the future KRQE-TV may be selling fewer of them and cheaper. 

That's just one of the possible impacts on the station after dropping their affiliation with the CBS Network, one that it had since 1953 and that will now go to Hearst-owned ABC affiliate KOAT.

KRQE owner Nexstar did not want to pay the CBS asking price to keep the affiliation. KOAT channel 7 grabbed the opportunity and starting in August will broadcast CBS programming on a digital channel easily accessible over the air, on cable and satellite. (Other CBS affiliates were also dropped by Nexstar.)

The seismic shift will see the FOX Network, already affiliated with Nexstar and KRQE, replace CBS programming along with an increased local news presence. (Station announcement here.)

The problem is FOX lacks the star and ratings power of CBS which could mean lower ratings for primetime and local news. That in turn could mean a loss in revenue leading to layoffs and other cutbacks in the months ahead. 

While KRQE gets weekly Sunday NFL games from Fox, the most valuable piece of real estate in broadcast TV, the CBS NFL schedule now moves to KOAT, ramping up their advertising power and putting the station in rotation for the highly popular Super Bowl. 

CBS is also home to the NCAA college basketball tournament, Masters golf, the highly-rated 60 minutes, the CBS Evening News and CBS Morning News. All of that plus the CBS primetime entertainment line-up--the most highly rated among the broadcast networks--will now be at KOAT. Political and other advertising will flow to those marquee programs at the expense of KRQE. That could easily make the dual-affiliated KOAT the state's dominant and most profitable station in the state.

As for KRQE's touted news expansion to fill the crater in their schedule, unless the station is going to spend much more on news, they could dilute the product and earn only anemic ratings while suffering dramatic ad losses because of the CBS departure.

THE KOAT ADVANTAGE 

Meantime KOAT can simply simulcast its 10 p.m. and other news broadcasts on their CBS channel with no extra expense and take advantage of popular CBS lead-in programs as KRQE currently does and which has helped make them first in the local news ratings. If played right, KOAT could easily become the new leader.

While broadcast TV has been in decline with half the audience streaming programming and not relying on traditional TV, the business is still highly profitable. For example, political ads are mostly aimed at voting audiences over 50 and that remains the demographic most loyal to broadcast television.

New Mexico's contests for governor and the 2nd Congressional District are going to attract millions of dollars of ads in the coming weeks. KRQE's CBS loss could be felt in the ratings by the time Labor Day arrives.  

For now KRQE will work to stop the bleeding and avoid a doom spiral where lower ratings lead to fewer ads, less revenue and a significant cutback in their news department. They will also have to deal with employees now eying KOAT as a port in the storm as the winds of change upend the local TV landscape. 

ELECTRIC SOCIALISM

The ABQ chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) endorsed Sen. Harold Pope for Lt. Governor. In a related matter, we get this:

Joe, I read your comments referring to Senator Pope’s proposal for NM to purchase PNM as “socialism.” There are plenty of governments including Farmington, New Mexico that own their own utilities. And many big cities including Austin, San Antonio and Omaha. Public ownership incentivizes a utility to invest in conservation rather than expansion of utility infrastructure, precisely to contain consumer rates. Farmington’s utility offers electricity rates that are historically 20% to 31% lower than the national average and neighboring utility cooperatives. It’s a proven model that frankly we should be moving towards as a state, rather than the monopoly investor owned electric utility model. In my community El Paso Electric is seeking a 50 rate increase! 

Good points but taking over a small electric company in Farmington does not compare with the government of New Mexico buying the state's largest utility and running its day-to-day affairs. One can only hope if it ever happened the management at CYFD would be prohibited from taking part. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics

Labels: CBS, Deb Haaland, Gregg Hull, KOAT, KRQE, Larry Sabato, MLG, Nexstar

Sen. Pope

The race for lieutenant governor is revealing a much more aggressive left wing in the state Democratic party with important implications for economic policy should Deb Haaland become the next governor. 

The race for the number two spot features two leading hopefuls--term-limited State Land Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard and ABQ state Senator Harold Pope. 

Their below-the-radar contest is to fill the vacancy created when Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver won the primary nomination over Pope but withdrew for health reasons. The race will be decided by about 500 members of the party's State Central Committee in a four-day electronic vote July 25-29. 

The party's more pronounced left wing was in evidence at the June primary election when moderate Democrats failed to muster respectable percentages in even conservative counties such as Eddy, Chaves and Lea, revealing that middle of the road politics is practically extinct among the party's nominating wing.

Now the Pope-Garcia Richard battle unveils party progressives even going after Haaland who is being labeled a "corporate Democrat" by some supporters of Pope. That is quite the turn of events given that Haaland was elected to the ABQ congressional seat and in 2018 immediately caucused with the progressive "Squad." 

It is not social issues such as abortion or trans rights that are now in dispute; it is critical economic matters and comes as Democratic socialists make major strides in New York City and elsewhere. In New Mexico that dynamic is being manifested in several key proposals where the newly energized left parts ways with Haaland who is urging committee members to name Garcia Richard as her running mate rather than the more progressive Pope.

--Private Equity Takeovers of PNM and the New Mexico Gas Company.

Garcia Richard

Pope opposes Blackstone's proposed $11.5 billion acquisition of TXNM Energy, PNM’s parent company. There is a similar private equity bid of $1.250 billion from Bernhard Capital Partners for the New Mexico Gas Company. Both takeovers await decisions from the Public Regulation Commission (PRC). 

Pope argues an unbridled thirst for profit by the bidders would ultimately "screw" ratepayers. He has joined protests outside PNM headquarters to condemn the deals. Rather than just regulating the private equity firms, Pope introduced Senate Memorial 9 urging the PRC to pause the acquisitions. 

He also proposed a socialist alternative: having the state use its permanent funds to buy a majority stake in PNM and possibly a nonmajority stake in Gas Company. He argues this would keep utility profits in New Mexico and diversify state revenue away from volatile oil and gas royalties. 

Haaland has focused her platform on lower utility costs and holding public utilities accountable, rather than pushing for an outright state takeover of the energy grid. While enviros have pressured the PRC to reject the Blackstone and BCP bids, Haaland’s approach leans on enforcement of the state's Energy Transition Act to ensure utility profits don’t come at the expense of regular families, but she has stopped short of endorsing Pope's state-ownership plan. 

Says Dem Central Committee member Mitchell Freedman of Rio Rancho:

I continue to say this is an important political moment to show Deb Haaland she and her consultants can't run the state like she ran the Democratic Party (as chairwoman) in 2016. The push for Pope is part of the Dem base revolt against corporate Dem leadership and the consultants who simultaneously fund and advise them.

JUPITER 

On the massive Project Jupiter data center being built in Santa Teresa, Pope, 52, wants the project halted, citing concerns about the strain hyperscale data centers place on water resources and the local energy grid. 

Jupiter will not tap into the local grid but instead use natural gas fuel cells for power. But enviros assert the center could still produce carbon emissions equivalent to a coal-fired power plant. Pope is pushing for regulatory interventions, including a statewide data center moratorium as was recently done in New York state.

In contrast Haaland supports a temporary pause on new data centers--but not Jupiter--while the state drafts rules regarding water usage and grid demand. She says: "New Mexico is not a piggy bank and I support our state putting guardrails in place that data centers must follow...Large corporations must do their part. . .As governor, I’d rather fix the guardrails than shut the door on an entire industry."

Garcia Richard, 52, is actually more aligned with Pope than Haaland on Jupiter.. The Land Commissioner made recent headlines by halting a proposed natural gas line to Jupiter that would run across state land--a direct blow to the project and more stern than Haaland's position. 

The bottom line on the divisions now on display in the Democratic party is whether the more insistent leftist positions on economic matters become more relevant in Santa Fe. Will there be state takeovers of gas and electric utilities previously thought inconceivable? A forever ban on data centers? A universal basic income for all residents which Pope has warmed to?

Garcia Richard, with Haaland's blessing, has the edge over the more progressive Pope but no matter who wins the campaign has been revealing. The strain of socialist thinking we've seen in the nation in response to rampant income inequality and the increased cost of living is now a tangible, mainstream ideology in New Mexico. That's a first. How it plays out promises to be more suspenseful than the upcoming election. 

TRAIL DUST

Former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima has dropped his independent candidacy for governor after failing to collect 14,574 petition signatures needed to qualify for the November ballot, and he has thrown his support to Republican Gregg Hull. 

Miyagishima, a conservative Dem turned independent, toyed with filing a lawsuit to dispute the high number of signatures required of an independent candidate but decided not to. Still, that threshold, upheld in a long ago court ruling, could use anther going over in an era when registered independent voters now rival the number of registered Republicans. . .

But hold on. There may be a court review yet. A federal lawsuit has been filed challenging the petition requirement that kept Bob Perls from running for the US Senate seat held by Sen. Ben Ray Lujan. Perls, chairman of the newly formed New Mexico Forward Party, filed suit over the requirement that he needed those 14,000 plus signatures to qualify for the ballot. He argues once the Forward Party submitted enough signatures to qualify as a minor party, they should have been allowed to place candidates on the ballot without a further petition requirement. The lawsuit and other info is here.

Former ABQ city clerk and Dem state Sen. Katy Duhigg has a rebuttal: 

The statewide signature requirement for independents and minor parties is much higher than those for major party candidates because those independent and minor party candidates get to skip running in a primary. It’s not a plot, and it’s not unfair. It is the trade off for only having to run in one election (the general election), instead of two (primary and general). . . 

Dem US Rep. Gabe Vasquez holds a significant money lead over Republican Greg Cunningham in the race for the southern congressional seat. In the latest federal campaign reports Vasquez reports raising $569,000 and having nearly $2.4 million in cash on hand. Cunningham raised $382,000 and reported $768,000 in cash. The Cook Political report ranks the Second Congressional District lean Democrat. Polymarket bettors have Vasquez with an 85 percent chance of victory.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.

Labels: Ben Ray Lujan, Deb Haaland, Gregg Hull, Harold Pope, Sen. Katy Duhigg, Stephanie Garcia Richard