It's all over but the counting, and we'll take care of that piece of business starting at 6:30 p.m. tonight on KANW 89.1 FM so join us on the air and on the stream for the latest breaking news and the in-depth election analysis you've come to expect from public radio. More details on our election coverage below, but first...

Being a Republican in New Mexico means wearing out multiple sets of worry beads every two years and having your religious faith repeatedly challenged by unanswered prayers. 2026 appears to be no different.

The early vote of 456,000 is tilting decidedly toward the Democrats, and Republicans are confessing that they are nervous about the prospect of enduring another thumping. Of the more than 456,000 New Mexicans who voted early, Democrats represented nearly 52% of the total, compared with Republicans at 31%, according to the Secretary of State. Those who cast early ballots made up about a third of the state’s more than 1.4 million registered voters.

More than 40% of registered New Mexico Democrats have already cast ballots in the 2026 general election, marking a large increase in their turnout compared with the previous midterm election in 2022.

Adding to the GOP pile of troubles are the probabilities being posted in the betting markets, adding insult to their turnout injury. Polymarket has Dem Guv nominee Deb Haaland entering Election Day as a 96 percent probable winner; it's 92 percent for 2nd Congressional District U.S. Rep. Gabe Vasquez. Try 99 percent for the rumored U.S. Senate race between Dem Senator Ben Ray Luján and Republican Larry Marker. 

If the bettors have it right—as they so often do—Vasquez will get an early bedtime tonight. It may be one of his last. On Election Eve he announced that he and his fiancée Nikki Santos are the proud parents of a new baby boy. There is zero chance they will name the newborn after the President. 

If only someone could give birth to a new format for the state GOP. They haven't won a statewide race since way back in 2014, and the prospect of another loss looms. For them, the post-Trump era—no matter what shape it takes—can't get here soon enough.

There may be a bright spot for Republican Governor nominee Gregg Hull, the former mayor of Rio Rancho. If he carries his home county of Sandoval, he would at least have one good memory from a decidedly unmemorable Republican effort that included lackluster fundraising and dropping the ball on a debate challenge with Haaland.

LOOKING FOR EXCITEMENT 

TLF and Stansbury

It's farther down the ticket that students of la política are hoping for some excitement. That would include Constitutional Amendment 4 to give annual salaries of $68,000 a year to state legislators. It could be close, declared amendment supporter and former state Sen. Jerry Ortiz y Pino on our KANW Election Eve broadcast Monday. Well, our favorite all-time candidate on the ballot is "Mr. Close," so we're hoping Jerry has it right. 

Kalshi bettors see the amendment failing but by only a 54% to 63% probability which keeps it in toss-up territory.

A couple of legislative races are also promising a modicum of suspense, including that premier battle between Dem Lisa Curtis and Republican Rep. Nicole Chavez, who is seeking a second term in House Disgtrcit 31 in the far ABQ NE Heights. Curtis poured $600K into the race—much of it her personal worth from her labors as a trial attorney. Chavez came in with $300K, which in a normal year would be a king's ransom, but is only enough to buy that new McLaren sports car of Lisa's that Nicole was upset about.

Reps. Melanie Stansbury and Teresa Leger Fernandez are on the ballot—again. Their contests were mostly forgettable, except for Republican Didi Okpareke, who is running against Stansbury. The TV news anchors had to practice for a full hour so they could pronounce her name correctly tonight.

But there is serious business to do in Santa Fe and Washington after this election. If the Dems take power in the House—as expected—we will be seeing and hearing more from our Dem congressional reps, with a subcommittee chairmanship or two waiting in the wings. If the Senate joins the party and goes D, Martin Heinrich could well become the chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. (Take that, Melanie.)

Win or lose, it's going to be a barrel of fun—but then, our name is not on that lonely ballot risking our dreams and hopes for approval from our peers. We're just happy to get free pizza and chicharrones and a comfortable chair to sit in as we watch another democratic election dance into the history books.

TONIGHT'S THE NIGHT

Rep. Hochman-Vigil

We had a bouncy pre-game special Monday, and tonight we go for the repeat with wall-to-wall live Election Night coverage starting at 6:30 p.m. on KANW, our election home since 1988. We really should have them change the carpet, but our guest experts are the last to be tripped up by any obstacles—including this year's election.

We welcome back ABQ Dem state Rep. Day Hochman-Vigil, a certified aviation and space law attorney. That's appropriate, as she and her fellow House Dems hope to be flying high by the end of the night with at least five competitive races on the line—and maybe a surprise or two.

She'll be joined by veteran lobbyist Sisto Abeyta—who gave up a promising radio career to join the ranks of powerhouse lobbyists at the Merry Roundhouse. Well, it pays better, for sure, but there's plenty of work for him to do tonight—as usual.

Kinsey

ABQ state Senator Moe Maestas is back. His bio says he's 58 and in the Roundhouse since 2007. 58? We'd like to say we have ties older than that, but we don't. Welcome to the elder statesmen club, Senator. We've been waiting for you.

Republican Amy Sanchez is on a return trip KANW and will do her best to keep her chin up, but even better, providing our audience with her expertise on all the ins and outs of the Republican action. When will the trend get better, Dr. Sanchez?

Out and about will be veteran journalist Jenny Kinsey of NPR's Mountain West News Bureau. She'll be stationed with the Democrats at Route 66 Casino-Hotel at Laguna Pueblo, the home pueblo of Deb Haaland. All the Dems will be there—including Haaland. If the party gets really wild, Jenny promises to close down the craps table so she can get some interviews.

Rachel Rivera from the Republican side of the aisle will be at Hotel Albuquerque delivering the latest developments for KANW and looking for good news—or something disguised as such. 

Sanchez, Maestas, Abeyta (Bralley)

The GOP is so factionalized that there are three separate parties there tonight—one sponsored by the state GOP, another by Gregg Hull, and yet another by 2nd CD candidate Greg Cunningham. Rachel will employ a golf cart to make sure she gets to each of them in time.

Rounding out our contributors will be Santa Fe attorney and legislative expert Cliff Rees and ABQ attorney David Buchholtz, the state's leading lawyer when it comes to municipal bonding and other esoteric financial matters. Cliff is all in for a pay raise for legislators. Well, that Santa Fe air can do that to a guy.

So off we go again. As the decades go by, it's like rinse and repeat, but the laundry is always different and you're never quite sure how it's going to come out. See you tonight!

THE BOTTOM LINES

AP is handling the election night numbers for all the major US networks and papers this year. The AP New Mexico page is here. . .Journalist Jenie Monet, writing in Mother Jones magazine, reports there are rumblings on the left about Deb Haaland’s comfort level in that wing of her party.