Vasquez & Cunningham

A look through the sole ABQ Journal poll of New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District paints a grim picture for Republican challenger Greg Cunningham, virtually shutting down his pathways to victory.

To stay competitive, the retired APD detective needed to hold off Democratic incumbent Rep. Gabe Vasquez in the populous urban cores of Bernalillo and Doña Ana counties. Instead, the October 1–9 poll shows Vasquez running away with both strongholds: leading 51–37 in the southern ABQ metro area and 57–36 in Doña Ana County.

Districtwide Vasquez holds a 48–44 lead over Cunningham with 8 percent undecided—a four-point margin that mirrors his 2024 victory over Republican Yvette Herrell (52–48).

The only other public poll in the race was conducted Aug. 28 to Sept. 2 by SurveyUSA and showed Vasquez with a 46-43 lead.  

Vasquez, a former Las Cruces city councilor, retains a bedrock local base. Cunningham hails from Albuquerque, but his local track record offers no momentum—having lost back-to-back bids in '22 and '24 against Democratic Rep. Joy Garratt in Westside House District 29. Furthermore, while both candidates are Hispanic, the national GOP brand has eroded among Hispanic voters, leaving Cunningham to pay the price locally.

The Cook Political Report ranks the seat as "Lean Democrat," and this poll, conducted among 338 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent,  solidifies that status as Vasquez seeks a third term.

While national Republicans have poured substantial funding into effective attack ads, they haven't uncovered fresh dirt on the incumbent. Messaging continues to rehash older controversies around Vasquez's past statements on law enforcement funding—arguments voters have already weighed and moved past.

On paper, the 2nd District looks alluring to Republicans. But it is no longer a rural-dominated seat; over half the electorate resides in the Democratic-heavy urban centers of Albuquerque and Doña Ana County. With Vasquez holding a firm grip on the urban vote, Cunningham is left waiting for an incumbent blunder significant enough to reshape the race.

House Speaker Mike Johnson was back in the district yesterday for a second visit this cycle to aid Cunningham--this time at a Las Cruces fund-raiser, according to Vasquez's campaign. The Speaker appeared in ABQ for Cunningham in late August. 

Bettors at Polymarket give Vasquez a 93 percent chance of victory and 4 percent for Cunningham. 

WAY BELOW RADAR 

There is a below-the-radar amendment to be decided by voters--Amendment #1--that addresses the esoteric pocket veto exercised by New Mexico's governors. The amendment—to the delight of many legislators—would do away with the pocket veto. Columbia University student Maya Henry looked into the details and came with this for NM In Depth:

For a bill to become law, it must pass both chambers of the state Legislature, a process that often takes months of negotiation and revision. Then it faces a new challenge: the governor. 

As the state constitution stands, a bill the Legislature has passed goes to the governor who can either sign it into law or veto it, explaining in a written message the reason for a veto. That written explanation gives lawmakers something to go on should they want to revise the bill and send it back to the governor for a second try.

But there’s an exception. If a bill passes in the last three days of a session the governor has 20 days to sign it into law, or to simply let it die without a signature, no reason required. That is called a “pocket veto” because the governor isn’t required to veto the bill outright.   

Pocket vetoes are unpopular with lawmakers who usher bills through the ups and downs of the legislative process, because they don’t provide information about changes necessary to garner the governor’s signature in years to come. 

In protest, a bi-partisan group of lawmakers, representatives Matthew McQueen, Rod Montoya and Reena Szczepanski and senators Joseph Cervantes and Pat Woods, sponsored House Joint Resolution 2 in January 2025. It passed the Legislature without a single no vote.

If voters approve the measure (Constitutional Amendment 1 on your ballot) in this year’s general election, the measure makes a simple switch. If the governor doesn’t sign or veto a bill during that 20-day window, it won’t die. Instead it will automatically become law. In addition, a governor would have to explain their rationale for all vetoes. Currently, the constitution only requires the governor to explain bills that are vetoed while the Legislature is in session. Vetoes typically come in the 20-day-period after a legislative session ends. 

The office of the governor has called the measure “ill advised,” saying it “infringes upon the Governor’s veto power.” In a response to the 2025 legislation, the governor’s office wrote:  “There may be (a) number of reasons for a governor to choose to pocket veto a bill rather than formally veto it. For example, the pocket veto allows the Governor to disapprove of legislation based on unforeseen issues without being compelled to publicly disclose sensitive information in a veto message.”

For McQueen, a Galisteo Democrat, getting rid of the pocket veto is a matter of transparency and good government. “It’s hard to pass legislation. It’s really hard to get through both chambers and to the governor’s desk,” he said in an interview. “If we have a bill that has been approved by both chambers and the governor decides not to sign it into law? The governor should tell us why.” 

The pocket veto is not unique to New Mexico: the President can employ a pocket veto by not acting on legislation within just 10 days of session adjournment, and 11 state governors enjoy some form of pocket veto privilege. The Office of the Governor cited these examples as reason to oppose such a constitutional change. 

The projected cost of such constitutional change would be indeterminate but minimal, a report prepared by the Legislative Finance Committee concluded. The costs could include the additional time and manpower the governor’s office needs to review bills passed by the Legislature and prepare veto messages as well as “legal challenges related to explanations given by the governor.

This is the Home of New Mexico politics.