With only days remaining until the November 3 election, the Senior Alligators of La Politica, the wall-leaners at the Roundhouse, and the sometimes-employed political consultants scattered across the state are reaching a consensus. As the keeper of their flame, here are their predictions:

• The Headliner: Deb Haaland is headed for a victory over Republican Greg Hull, but she’ll be hard-pressed to win by double digits. "She should have hit 50 in the polls earlier if she was going to hit that mark" commented one wise observer. "It’s not out of the question, but a six- or seven-point win—à la MLG in ’22—wouldn't be a surprise."

• Statewide Offices: Attorney General, Land Commissioner, and other statewide races will all go to Democrats, with 56% to 57% being the high-water mark for the top performers. "It’s going to happen again," offered one Roundhouse wall-leaner. "We are really a one-party state now, and these wins will reinforce that."

• Congressional Districts: All three districts are safe for the Democrats—including the highly anticipated 2nd Congressional District, where two-term Democrat Gabe Vasquez faces Republican Greg Cunningham. "The Republican can't escape Trump any more than Marie Antoinette could escape the guillotine," commented one gray-bearded Senior Alligator.

• The State House: The shift in the chamber's makeup will be negligible when the dust settles, but Republicans have reason to worry about Nicole Chavez. She is being outspent by Democrat Lisa Curtis in Albuquerque’s NE Heights District 31—the last GOP-held district within the ABQ city limits. "Chavez has the raw numbers in that district," noted one consultant. "But between the money, Trump, and the enthusiasm factor, if a Dem wave strikes, it may not be enough."

• Ballot Measures: Our seasoned observers add that in addition to the Chavez-Curtis race, the constitutional amendment to give legislators a full-time salary could offer suspense. Proponents are heavily outspending the opposition. The state's inherent political DNA cuts against the measure, but in a Democrat-dominated year, that historical resistance might not be enough to stop it.

Of course, we’ll have the real predictions—the ones from the voters—when we bring you all the results on Election Night on KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com. The only thing we can confidently predict right now? A fun time will be had by all.

A VERY LONG BALLOT

The positions carry prestige and power that make them in the words of one lawmaker, “plum political appointments.” And currently, the governor has sole discretion over who is nominated to a Board of Regents with the appointment subject to confirmation by the state Senate.

A proposed constitutional amendment (Constitutional Amendment 3 on your ballot) that New Mexicans are asked to vote on would instead require governors to choose regents from candidates vetted by nominating committees, or in the case of student regents, from elected student bodies. Striving for bi-partisanship, the proposal states that no more than 50% of the members of the nominating committees could be members of the same political party.  

The amendment requires a nominating committee for each institution to provide a list of candidates for nonstudent regent positions from which the governor chooses. The Legislature would set the rules for the committees, including how members are appointed, with no more than half belonging to the same political party. Student regents would be selected by the governor from a list provided  by a school’s student government. 

(Some of) the institutions affected by the constitutional amendment include the University of New Mexico, New Mexico State University, New Mexico Highlands University, Western New Mexico University, Eastern New Mexico University and the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology.

The proposal comes as the state continues to deal with the fallout from former Western New Mexico University President Joseph Shepard’s spending. The attorney general has accused Shepard and other former university officials of mishandling millions of taxpayer dollars in a case that is moving toward trial.

Rep. Christine Chandler and Sen. Jeff Steinborn sponsored the resolution to place the question before voters.

“This gives New Mexicans the opportunity to make sure that our universities are run by the most qualified, passionate people who have great ideas to add to our universities,” Steinborn, a Las Cruces Democrat, said.  “The current system that this would replace is really where just political cronies get handed these plum political appointments by a governor. Sometimes they’re qualified but sometimes they’re not and that. . . dumbs down the importance of education in this state.”

Legislative staff, in their guide to the constitutional amendments on the ballot, wrote that nominating committees could insulate appointments from the influence of politics, and ensure that more qualified candidates are chosen. But one potential drawback is that the change could make it harder to hold elected officials responsible for regent appointments. Currently, the governor chooses regents and the Senate confirms them, leaving both accountable to voters for those decisions. 

And in comments attached to the resolution, the Higher Education Department raised concern that requiring nominating committee members to have maintained the same political party registration for a set period could exclude otherwise qualified candidates. . . 

Our take: There's no guarantee that the committee system will root out all the politics behind the appointment of regents, but the current method is not getting the job done. We'll vote yes on Constitutional Amendment 3.

THOSE 'CROOKED" ELECTIONS

As you may have heard, President Trump is at it again, renewing his call for New Mexico to be renamed New America. He seems to enjoy getting a rise out of the locals every time he pulls this stunt on social media, but there is a more serious aspect of his attacks that could be taken seriously by voters—he continues to call state elections "crooked," as he did in a Monday tweet, declaring:

Maybe even the Crooked Elections that New Mexico is known for would become honest again!"

There was a time when the integrity of state elections was an issue, but that was generations ago. The Secretary of State, in a rebuttal to Trump, explains why that is not the case today:

. . .New Mexicans know that we have repeatedly received high national rankings for administering some of the most secure and accessible elections in the country. We lead in election accuracy with hand-marked paper ballots, multiple mandatory post-election audits and continual voter roll maintenance. We lead in election security with regular testing of systems, the establishment of a statewide election security division and meaningful collaboration with state and federal safety partners. And we lead in voting accessibility with online, automatic, and same-day voter registration opportunities; no-excuse, secure mail-in voting; and a 28-day early voting period. Yes, New Mexico’s voters know better, and I encourage each and every one of them to make it clear how much we value our robust electoral process by voting in this year’s election. 

Crooked elections are indeed a relic of the past but we would be remiss if we did not roll out that old trope about Election Night in New Mexico way back when:

A candidate calls up the Rio Arriba county clerk's office on Election night and asks: "How many votes do I have? The clerk answered: "How many do you need?"

This is the Home of New Mexico politics.