She’s a political superstar on the national stage, but Deb Haaland has yet to close the deal with New Mexico voters in her race to become the next governor, despite raising over $17 million and holding a massive name ID advantage over Republican
Gregg Hull.
The SurveyUSA poll taken for KOB-TV September 25–30 has Haaland leading the contest 47% to 41% with 12 percent undecided—the same six-point lead she sported in the late-August ABQ Journal survey. That poll showed her with 49% and the former Rio Rancho mayor at 43%. The margin of error in this survey, conducted among 567 registered voters, is on the high side at 5.1 percent. (Crosstabs here.)
Coincidentally, six points is the margin by which Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham defeated Republican Mark Ronchetti in her bid for a second term four years ago.
MLG did not hit 50 percent in the polling until very late in October of '22, but expectations are higher for Haaland given the tremendous financial advantage she holds over Hull, who has raised only about $2 million. Ronchetti raised $10 million four years ago.
Haaland was also up with a major TV buy unanswered by Hull while the poll was taken, but that was still not enough to get her to the magic number of 50 percent. Commented Hull:
She has outraised me nearly nine to one, and this race is still within reach.
This poll also shows something else. I'm the only candidate in this race whom more New Mexicans view favorably than unfavorably. Deb Haaland is underwater, and she's even further underwater with independents. Once voters get to know me, they like what they see.
That 12% will decide who leads this state.
Still, there is nothing in the poll to take away Haaland's mantle as the clear front-runner which is reinforced at Polymarket where bettors Monday were placing her chance of success at 96 percent.
Veteran political consultant, former state legislator, and Santa Fe attorney Greg Payne provides the analysis:
Neither of the candidates looks strong. It’s Haaland's race to lose and I doubt she’ll do that. But she should be over 50% at this stage of the game given the anti-Trump political environment and her record-breaking fundraising. I suspect we’re looking at an Election Day win for Haaland around the 54%–46% range. A win, but I’m not sure it will be viewed as a sweeping mandate for the new Governor.
GOING NEGATIVE--OR NOTOf concern in the poll for Haaland was that unfavorable rating of 35 percent compared to a 31 percent favorable,19 percent neutral and 16 percent unfamiliar.
The lesser-known Hull's favorability was at 29 percent, 21 unfavorable, 24 neutral and 27 unfamiliar.
(MLG had a 38 percent favorable rating, 42 percent unfavorable 15 neutral and 16 percent unfamiliar.)
Haaland can improve those numbers with her outsized war chest. One of her new ads features her empathizing with those fighting substance abuse and notes Haaland has been sober for 35 years.
Hull has a similar challenge in getting favorably known but doesn't yet have the cash to make his case.
One distinction in this race is the lack of high-profile negative advertising—at least so far.
Hull has been urged to go negative by a number of political pros, but has resisted. He could still keep his no-negative pledge if outside PACs come in and do the dirty work.
Haaland hasn't found it necessary to tackle Hull but that could change as the polling numbers fray nerves at her headquarters.
The candidates could not come to an agreement on televised debates, and there will be none—clearly a disadvantage for Hull, who still needs something to shake up the trajectory of the contest.
Analyst Payne says:
For Hull to have a chance at the win, he has to get over his 'I'm a really nice guy who won't go negative' thinking. Political campaigns aren't tea parties. They're bare-knuckle brawls. If Hull really wants to be governor, he's going to have to fight for it—whether he likes it or not."
SENATE RACE
SurveyUSA also released results of their US senate poll. It showed Senator Ben Ray Lujan far ahead of his Republican challenger:
Ben Ray Lujan leads Larry Marker 54% to 34% in New Mexico’s U.S. Senate race, with 10% of voters undecided. Almost 50% of those polled said they are unfamiliar with Marker.
VOTING STARTS TODAY
Election '26 will be over by the end of the day for voters around the state who decide to cast their ballots at their local county clerk's voting locations which open today. In Bernalillo County, Clerk Michelle Kavanaugh says:
Beginning today Absentee ballots are being mailed to voters who have requested them, and early voting and Same-Day Registration begins at the Clerk’s Annex, 1500 Lomas Blvd. NW. Early voting at the Annex is available Monday through Friday from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Expanded early voting begins Saturday, Oct. 17, with 20 locations available throughout Bernalillo County. Expanded early voting continues through Saturday, Oct. 31, Monday through Saturday from 10 a.m. to 7 p.m. at most locations.
The deadline to request an absentee ballot is Tuesday, Oct. 20 . . .All absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Voters are encouraged to check their registration information, review voting options, view a sample ballot and find voting locations here.
More of our
continuing coverage now of
constitutional amendment #4 to allow New Mexico legislators to draw an annual salary of $nearly $70,000. A Roundhouse Wall-Leaner supportive of the measure writes:
Joe:
Thanks for your ongoing coverage of the Legislative Salary constitutional ballot proposal. New Mexico's Amendment #4 is based on Alabama's 2012 Amendment 8, adopted overwhelmingly by Alabama's voters--68.5% for and 31.5%. That successful measure now bases Alabama legislators' compensation at the median household income level for the state just as Amendment No. 4 does for New Mexico. Household income rather than median individual income is used since wage earners typically use their salaries to support their families, not just themselves.
Join us tomorrow for more of Campaign '24.
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