More voters in the populous ABQ metro are withholding judgment on the gubernatorial race than most other regions, appearing to prevent Democrat Deb Haaland from reaching the key 50 percent mark in her race against Republican Gregg Hull.

The second and final poll on the contest from the ABQ Journal—taken October 1–9 and released Sunday—has Haaland prevailing over Hull 49 to 42 percent, with 9 percent undecided.  

The first Journal survey released in late September had the race virtually the same—49–43 for Haaland. The margin of error in this survey is a tight 2.9 percent, reflecting the large sample of 1,125 likely voters. 

In the metro area 10 percent of voters are holding back final judgment. Hull is a popular former three-term mayor of Rio Rancho with deep roots here. Haaland leads him 49 to 40 percent in the Bernalillo-Sandoval-Valencia county region.

Statewide 18 percent of independents remain undecided with Haaland favored by 48 percent and Hull 34 percent. 

Haaland has begun targeting the indys in mailers, pledging that she "will work with anyone to lower costs and tackle our toughest challenges." Hull claims the poll shows that Haaland is "stuck." You could make the same argument about Hull who can't break past 43 percent in the polling. 

In the heavily Democratic north-central region, only 6 percent of voters are undecided. Haaland leads there 65 to 29 percent. In the Dem-dominated Las Cruces/Southwest region, undecided voters stand at 7 percent, and Haaland leads there 53 to 40 percent.

Haaland targets Indys

In 2022, when Gov. Lujan Grisham ran for re-election, she also faced a Republican, Mark Ronchetti, who was rooted in the metro area. She ended up carrying the region 52–46, an underperformance for a Democrat that limited her statewide victory margin to that same 52 to 46 on Election Night.

Haaland may or may not be headed on a similar trajectory, but because this final Journal poll comes earlier than any previous conducted in a gubernatorial cycle, there is still time for Haaland to surge more than MLG did, especially with the favorable national environment.

Hull's cash-starved campaign is barely on television, has no debates with Haaland to look forward to, and faces the aforementioned dreadful environment for Republicans this cycle. But he has that Sandoval County base that should help offset the landslide he is expected to suffer in Democratic Albuquerque.

STATE OF THE RACE 

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Haaland has spent heavily since the last poll, but the peak of her spending has yet to come. Hull has some cash and is expected to be on the air more by October 17—when critical in-person early voting begins. However, Haaland's advantage is so lopsided that the fear among the GOP is that she could break free and head for a double-digit win as voters default to the candidate they have seen and heard the most.

Haaland, a national political figure who has raised over $17 million to Hull's $2 million, was expected to have an easier time of it at this stage. Longtime analyst and Santa Fe attorney Greg Payne says in light of her historic fund-raising he would characterize Haaland's polling performance as "weak." 

There are structural issues that could be impacting the race. 

Haaland is seeking to become the first Native American governor. That draws support from many Democrats, but hardens her opposition, which sees her as an unqualified token candidate.

Haaland is also seeking to overturn other history. Since 1986, the governorship has alternated between Democrats and Republicans. A Haaland win would mean a third consecutive term for the Democrats—a first in 40 years.

There is also her campaign strategy. Haaland has been careful not to throw any red meat to voters. She has run a cautious effort, marketing her personality and pushing out programs that represent gentle change, but nothing transformational. If it's not red meat, voters may need something more to sink their teeth into before moving toward her.

That brings up negative campaigning. The Democratic Governors Association has started an ad blitz tying Hull to Trump, and Hull is defenseless to respond. That could easily make up for Haaland's deficiencies. Also, Hull has pledged to conduct no negative campaigning, and no outside PAC has picked up the slack as the DGA has for Haaland.

There have now been three public polls in the governor's race. The average of those polls is 48 percent for Haaland and 42 percent for Hull. Polymarket bettors give Haaland a 92 percent chance of victory.

CANDIDATE REACTION

In a fund-raising pitch following release of the poll Haaland said:

I just got our newest poll, and the margins are still too close for comfort. They’re saying that my Republican opponent is “within striking distance"! Here’s why I’m concerned: MAGA donors have already poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into this race, and this poll will only encourage them to spend even more to close the gap. Republicans have made it clear: They will spend whatever it takes to buy this election, flip New Mexico red, and bring Donald Trump’s extreme agenda to our state.  

Hull said:

(Pollster) Brian Sanderoff, is already telling reporters that time is running out for our campaign. I’m not buying it, and you shouldn’t either. In the Journal’s last poll, we had a 17 point lead in the Las Cruces area. Now, somehow, that has completely flipped? So which poll was flawed?. . .

Over nine days of calls, only one came after the debate my opponent skipped. Most of the people in this poll answered before New Mexicans saw me standing next to an empty lectern, answering questions she wouldn’t. 

The poll also builds its sample from 2024 voters, a presidential year when turnout is always far higher than in a governor’s race. A lot of those voters won’t cast a ballot. . .We’ve seen this before. In the final week of our primary, the polls said it was close. We won by 10. A poll like this does one thing: it tells Republicans and independents that the race is decided so they’ll stay home. That’s exactly what Deb Haaland needs to happen. She has spent millions. . . and she still hasn’t moved the needle since August. She’s stuck. A large share of independents haven’t made up their minds. 

BALLYHOO

That ballyhooed nondebate featuring Hull in person and Haaland represented by an empty podium fell flat fast. 

Despite having the half hour to himself after the station went forward with his appearance when Haaland turned down their offer, Hull did nothing to compare and contrast his policies with those of Haaland. Only at the end did he even point out her absence from the stage.

Hull had an ideal opportunity to indict the policies of MLG, Haaland, and the entire Democratic progressive machine, but the audience that stuck around saw a low-key, competent fellow talking ably about his policies while failing to connect them to everyday New Mexicans. If that's all Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico were going to get had Haaland shown up for the debate, they didn't miss much. 

This is the Home of New Mexico politics.