The early vote is coming in at a rapid clip with an estimated 35 percent of the expected total vote already cast via absentee and in-person voting. 

Our projected turnout is 715,000—the same number that cast ballots in the '22 mid-term election. So far over 250,000 early votes have been tallied. 

Upwards of 75 percent of the final vote is expected to be recorded before the official Election Day, November 3.  

Friday and Saturday of this week--the final days of early in-person voting--are some of the heaviest. That makes it imperative that candidates running behind or in tight races get their last-minute negative ads out to the public. And that they are doing. . . 

State Republicans came with this "Brain Buffering" meme targeting Dem Guv candidate Deb Haaland. The intelligence of the woman who would become the first Native American governor in state history has been an ongoing Republican theme, although GOP nominee Greg Hull has left it mainly to third parties to attack Haaland and her alleged deficient IQ.

The mockery of her intellectual abilities is nasty stuff for a candidate who has graduated law school, served in the U.S. Congress, and in the president's cabinet as Secretary of the Interior. It appears the public isn't taking the bait with Haaland still expected to score a relatively easy victory over Hull, although insiders confirm our earlier read on the race: insider polling shows Haaland weaker in the ABQ metro  than she'd like. That's due in part to Hull having served three terms as Rio Rancho mayor and sporting a likable disposition.

Hull blew the doors off in Sandoval County at the GOP June primary and is expected to tie or win the county against Haaland. His regional appeal has held Haaland to a solid but not overwhelming 51-37 percent lead in the metro area in Journal polling.

CLOSING PITCH

A late negative hit from Republicans over a PAC backing Haaland for taking a $250,000 donation from an energy company doing work for Project Jupiter tries to win over Democrats and independents as polling shows the data center unpopular across the board.

There are negative hits up on Hull from PACS, but Haaland has spent little of the $20 million she has raised directly attacking her foe. This week her campaign airs their final ad of the campaign, called "Fight." They say:

Greg Hull

In "Fight," Haaland commits to protecting families from federal cuts... and working across the aisle to lower costs for all New Mexicans and make critical investments in our communities and public safety.“Deb Haaland is the fighter New Mexicans need in the Governor’s Office because she is the only candidate for Governor who will stand up to Trump’s worst impulses, protecting families from federal Medicaid and SNAP cuts and actually working to lower costs for working people, not millionaires and billionaires.”

That covers all the bases: working across the aisle to appeal to the last-minute deciding independents; nationalizing the race with DC budget cuts and President Trump; hitting the public safety angle, which Dems are traditionally seen as weak on; and taking a jab at Hull's chief campaign plan—eliminating personal income taxes in four stages.

Because Hull said he would not engage in negative campaigning, did not end up debating Haaland, and only raised $2 million to Haaland's $20 million, this gubernatorial campaign is ending calmly. 

CONGRESS CONTEST 

Rep. Vasquez

GOP memes against the Dems have been packaged well but the messaging has sometimes been lacking and often a rehash of past efforts to unseat current Dem officeholders.

Greg Cunningham

For example, there is the "defund the police" accusation against Dem U.S. Rep. Gabe Vasquez from Republican challenger Greg Cunningham. Ever since Vasquez made that cavalier statement on video while serving as a Las Cruces councilor it has been campaign fodder—in 2022 and 2024 when he twice beat Republican Yvette Herrell. Why should it work this time?

The 2nd CD campaign has been odd on one front. Cunningham, a former APD detective and Marine, was often shown on his motorcycle sporting his tattoos, while Vasquez, apparently trying to defend his manhood from the machismo of Cunningham, cut a video ad showing him lifting weights and giving a threatening look to the camera.

With attacks that did not seem to fully land and overt appeals to masculinity, Vasquez versus Cunningham often seemed cartoonish. 

CURTIS VS. CHAVEZ 

Voters in ABQ House District 31 are seeing new and possibly effective last-week attacks in the contest between Dem trial attorney Lisa Curtis and GOP state Rep. Nicole Chavez, who is seeking a second term in the last remaining House district whose boundaries are within the city of ABQ.

The Our Values PAC, financed largely by oil and gas interests, comes with a harsh video hit on Curtis, whom they call a "filthy rich lawyer," and score her for what they claim is her recent purchase of a McLaren auto, priced in the $300,000 range.

For her part, Curtis has exposed Chavez's family ties to the controversial Project Jupiter data center. 

She also says Chavez—a health professional—is in the bag for corporate health interests, while Chavez retorts that Curtis fought legislative medical malpractice reform tooth and nail because she has made millions from suing doctors and hospitals.

THE BOTTOM LINES

For a few hours Thursday we had the incorrect ABQ Journal August polling numbers posted for Constitutional Amendment #4—the proposal to give state lawmakers a salary of about $68,000 a year. The correct numbers are 39 percent support, 21 percent oppose, 34 percent undecided and 6 percent saying "it depends" which means they could be supportive if specific guardrails or terms are included.

Everything you wanted to know and then some concerning the four constitutional amendments on the ballot is in this summary from the Legislative Council Service.

Thanks for stopping by. See you back here tomorrow.  

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