The geographic split in New Mexico’s politics is on display in the early vote. The Hispanic North, predictably, is leading the way for the Dems in terms of their early voting percentages over the Republicans.

San Miguel County leads the partisan divide with Dems casting 79 percent of the early ballots and Republicans at just 12 percent.

Taos is always a banner county for the Dems, and it’s playing true to form in the early voting that continues through Saturday. Democratic ballots total 76 percent, while the GOP dips to 10 percent.

Santa Fe County is the third highest Dem performing county in early balloting, with 74 percent going to Dems and Republicans at 10 percent.

TOP GOP COUNTIES 

For the GOP, sprawling Harding County--population only 657--is the most GOP county in the early vote, with 73 percent of the ballots for Republicans and 24 percent for the Dems.

Reliably red Lea County is second best performing for the Grand Old Party, with 68 percent of the early voting going to Republicans and 22 percent going to the Dems.

Catron, another large county geographically (6,924 square miles) but just a dot on the map population-wise (3,579) has GOP voters casting 61 percent of the early vote and Democrats 23 percent.

BIG BERNCO 

In big BernCo, initial early voting had nearly 60 percent of the ballots being cast by Dems. That has come down to 57 percent as more Republicans start to trek to the polls, making up 25 percent of the county vote, according to the latest stats from the SOS.

Not all of the Dems and R’s will stick with their party in casting their actual votes, but the great majority will, giving us a snapshot of why New Mexico has become essentially a one-party state with Dem dominance in the extreme. They control the legislature, all statewide executive offices, the state Supreme Court, and the mayoralties of ABQ, Santa Fe, and Las Cruces.

For the GOP to get back in the game it must find a way to compete in the cities which means better candidate recruitment and a pivot to a more centrist approach.  

HAALAND AND LEGISLATURE

Chavez and Curtis

Deb Haaland is apparently confident enough in the final days of the campaign to spread her wings and endorse candidates in key legislative races. Take a look:

In the premier contest in House District 31 in the far ABQ NE Heights, Haaland has endorsed Democratic trial lawyer Lisa Curtis, who is running against first-term GOP Rep. Nicole Chavez. The district still trends Republican, but race watchers there expect a close result on Election Night. Curtis has raised $409,000 in the latest reports in her effort to oust Chavez, who is the last House Republican left standing in ABQ. She is not far behind, having raised $306,000. The district’s ideological lean is 55 percent conservative. Perhaps a nail-biter Election Night when we take to the air at KANW?

In House District 36 in Doña Ana County, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee has given the nod to Democratic Rep. Nathan Small, chairman of the important House Appropriations Committee, who faces a challenge from Julia Ruiz. Despite his high profile, Small has had two close races of late—in 2022 and 2024, he faced Republican Kimberly Skaggs, defeating her by 4.2 percentage points in ’22 and 3.8 percentage points in ’24. This is a tight district because of the large number of independent voters that turn out. Small's race has drawn scrutiny over his support of Project Jupiter, which puts him at odds with other area Dem legislators. Small has raised $306,000 to $46,000 for Ruiz. 

In HD 39 in the southwest, Haaland has given her blessing to Democrat Raul Turrietta, a four-time elected Grant County Assessor who is trying to unseat Republican Rep. Luis Terrazas. This has been an energetic campaign. The district features a nearly even split between registered Democrats and registered Republicans, making it one of the key battleground state house districts. Independents are expected to vote at a 20–25 percent rate, making them key.

Back in Doña Ana, HD 53 Democratic Rep. Sarah Silva, seeking her second term, has secured Haaland's endorsement. At first, Silva was a supporter of the Project Jupiter data center, but in the face of public discontent, she switched and announced her opposition. This is one of the "swingiest seats" in the state, but Dems have held it for the past three cycles, including Silva’s win of 50.8 to 49.2 percent in ’24. House Speaker Javier Martínez is all in for Silva. She received $25,000 from his Speaker Fund and $8,700 from his individual campaign. Silva has raised a total of $192,000 in the latest campaign reports. Republicans have helped Luna, but he has raised only $72,000. The cash difference could talk loudly.

Haaland has also endorsed Rep. Charlotte Little in HD 68 in northwestern Bernalillo County. Little won re-election in ’24 by 4.4 percentage points (52.2% to 47.8%). David Adkins, well known in Republican circles, is the challenger. He has raised an ample $146,000 to her $196,000. It’s definitely a race we will watch closely when we kick off our live Election Night coverage on KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.org.

OUR ELECTION COVERAGE

We're busy preparing for our traditional Election Night broadcast on KNW 89.1 FM and kanw.org, marking our 38th year on public radio. We've anchored every primary and state general election since 1988—and don't feel a day older.

This year, we're also back with the pre-game show, also known as the Election Eve Special. That comes your way live at 5 p.m. Monday, November 2 with our panel of experts who will have some fun predictions. ABQ state Senator Moe Maestas (inveterate political and sports junkie) will be among those on hand.

ABQ state Rep. Day Hochman-Vigil will be with us Election Night--coverage starts at 6:30 p.m. We're calling on her expertise since the real election suspense may come down to those handful of competitive state House seats. 

We'll have more on our coverage in the upcoming days. As always, we appreciate you tuning in. And see you back here tomorrow with more from the '26 campaign trial. 

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