The constant barrage of TV ads tells the story—the race for the 2nd Congressional District is once again attracting a flood of national dollars from political action committees and individual donors. Total spending by the PACs and the individual campaigns of Democratic U.S. Rep. Gabe Vasquez and Republican challenger Greg Cunningham is expected to top out in the $22–$25 million range. But as over-the-top as that amount may seem, it isn’t even a record.

Both the 2022 and 2024 elections for the district saw total spending eclipse $20 million. In 2022, when Vasquez faced incumbent Republican Yvette Herrell, total spending hit around $23 million. In 2024, Vasquez again faced Herrell (whom he beat in '22), and spending was again in the $23–$25 million band.

However, the high-water mark for NM-02 spending came in 2020 during the rematch between Democrat Xochitl Torres Small and Herrell—the stunning total went over $30 million between direct candidate campaigns and massive independent expenditures of over $23 million from Super PACs and national party committees.

In 2018, when Republican Steve Pearce left the seat to run for Governor, Torres Small and Herrell first faced off, with campaign spending reaching an eye-catching $14 million—notable, but not the enormous sum of today. Torres Small won 50.9% to 49.1%, turning the district blue for the first time since 2008. That razor-thin margin set the stage for their rematch two years later in 2020, when Herrell took the prize.

In those previous cycles, professional handicappers ranked the sprawling district as a "Toss-Up" seat, but this year the seat moved to "Lean Democrat." If Vasquez makes it three wins in a row, will the spending spiral finally end in the 2nd CD in 2028? Maybe, but it will take a win by either candidate of more than a couple of points for national interests to lay down their arms. 

As for the state of the race with a week to go, Polymarket bettors give Vasquez a 91 percent chance of victory. The average of the two public polls in the contest show Vasquez up an average of 3.5 percent. 

 DICHO MAN

The longest-serving member of the state House will turn 76 in January but Rep. Miguel García faces only token GOP opposition from Richard Zubia in his heavily Democratic South Valley ABQ District 14, whose neighborhoods include historic Barelas and South Broadway.

García was first elected in 1996 and has been a leading advocate for Hispanic land grants and acequia protections. In his campaign literature, he quotes the Spanish dicho:

 'Hacerle bien al ingrato es lo mismo que ofenderlo' ('To do good to the ungrateful is to turn them into enemies.'    

García’s subtle use of this dicho is a throwback to a time when political attacks required wit rather than volume. In a campaign landscape filled with loud, modern noise, it’s a clever and quiet reminder of why he’s survived in the Roundhouse for three decades."  

MORE AMENDMENT 4

A reader writes of paying state lawmakers a full-time salary:

Where are all these "qualified people" who would just love to be in the New Mexico legislature but won't run because the job does not pay a salary? Have any of them come forward to explain themselves during the heated debate over the proposed constitutional amendment #4 that would provide an inflated salary of $68,000 annually to lawmakers? I say inflated because they already receive nearly $250 each time they attend a legislative session or one of the many interim committee meetings, plus mileage expenses, an overly generous pension and plenty of free meals from your local friendly lobbyist It's curious that we're told there is this shadow group of outstanding but economically deprived individuals just champing at the bit to get their chance to go to Santa Fe, yet we hear nothing of them or from them. That's because there is no such group, and it's why a "No" vote on Amendment 4 is in order.

CRUISE CONTROL 

His campaign has been on cruise control but MAGA Republican Larry Marker tries to apply some final days heat on Dem US Sen. Ben Ray Lujan with this video:

Career politician Ben Ray Lujan voted for policies that opened our borders to fentanyl pipelines. He backed reckless spending crushing families with inflation and federal regulations over energy jobs. It's time for a senator who puts New Mexico first. I'll fight to secure our border, stop fentanyl, and protect New Mexico jobs. Your safety, your paycheck, your future. That's what I'm fighting for. I'm Larry Marker. I'm running for US Senate and I approve this message. 

For his part, Luján has the Dems looking forward to 2028 when the state will host the fourth presidential primary of the season. Some of those expected to make the run turned up at a matanza and rally at Balloon Fiesta Park sponsored by Luján, who is seeking a second term.

THE BOTTOM LINES

A link from the Legislative Council Service explaining the four constitutional amendments on the ballot went to the wrong site for a couple of hours Monday. Here is the LCS summary.

This is the Home of New Mexico politics.