While that is their only scheduled television debate, Vasquez is pushing Cunningham—who is also of Hispanic heritage—to participate in a separate Spanish-language debate in the El Paso media market, which reaches southern New Mexico. Hispanic voters make up 60 percent of the 2nd Congressional District's population and are expected to account for upwards of 55 percent of the turnout.
A 5 p.m. Wednesday debate falls well outside the traditional primetime window, but with streaming and digital video clips driving viewing habits, timing matters less than it used to. In August, KRQE lost its CBS affiliation to KOAT in a major shakeup of the Albuquerque TV market, making the exclusive 2nd District debate a prime catch for the station.
Vasquez is a formidable debater, but his liberal record as a Las Cruces city councilor and community organizer—paired with his pivot toward the moderate middle—has kept Republicans eager to compete. There is also the reality that Donald Trump carried the district by 1.81 percent in 2024.
Cunningham, who previously lost two state House races on Albuquerque’s west side, has the most to prove on the debate stage. However, Vasquez remains under 50 percent in polling—a vulnerable position for an incumbent—and will also feel pressure to deliver a clean performance.
The 2nd District race is currently rated "Lean Democrat." Over half the votes originate in Las Cruces and Bernalillo County, where Vasquez performed well enough to fend off tough challenges in 2022 and 2024, when he secured a four-point victory (52 to 48 percent).
National Republicans are mounting another serious effort with heavy TV ad buys, which Vasquez is matching and then some. GOP field operations are also active on the ground in Las Cruces. The seat is one of 19 targeted nationwide by the GOP and President Trump, whose $400 million PAC is spending to keep Democrats from retaking the House majority.
A HEADWIND
While the 2nd District is far too conservative for Vasquez to shout an aggressive anti-immigration message from the rooftops, ICE enforcement operations are expected to drive turnout in Hispanic precincts across Bernalillo and Doña Ana counties. Trump came within six points of winning New Mexico in 2024 largely on the back of Hispanic support, but late August polling put his statewide approval at just 32 percent, with steep drops among Hispanic voters. That national baggage may prove too heavy for Cunningham to overcome.
Cunningham—a former Marine, APD officer, and DEA agent—continues to focus his campaign on crime, border security, and Vasquez’s record. Vasquez has mounted a steady defense while broadening his message to include healthcare access and the cost of living. An August SurveyUSA poll had Vasquez leading 46 to 43 percent. With the broader national environment favoring Democrats, the incumbent isn't showing signs of slipping, making the upcoming debate Cunningham's best chance to shake up the race.
THE BOTTOM LINES
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| Monahan |
The idiom was already circulating by the mid-1950s when Lyndon B. Johnson reportedly used it to mock then-U.S. Rep. Gerald Ford of Michigan. Only LBJ didn't say "walk." His actual line was far more crude: "Gerald Ford is so dumb he can't fart and chew gum at the same time."
Because news outlets of that era were far more circumspect, reporters sanitized the quotation for print, changing "fart" to "walk." By the time Ford assumed the presidency in 1974, the sanitized version had become a permanent staple of political shorthand.
As a side note: I met former President Ford in Santa Fe back in 1984 when he was campaigning for Republican congressional candidate Lou Gallegos. Ford was engaging, sharp, and entirely on the ball. Prior to arriving, his only requests to the campaign were a copy of The New York Times and a bowl of fresh fruit in his hotel room.
There wasn't a single pack of chewing gum in sight.
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