Campaign '26 may have reached an inflection point with Deb Haaland’s decision to forego all debates with Republican opponent Gregg Hull. By stepping away from the "debate over debates"—a distraction her team characterized as a sideshow—she neutralized the issue.

Haaland turned a potential vulnerability—her perceived hesitation around formal debates—into a display of strategic strength. When the moment came, she acted decisively. Hull, by contrast, made the wrong move at the wrong time by publicly challenging her on specific dates. His bluff was called. She nixed the debates entirely, dismissing them as a sideshow. You could almost hear the air deflating from Hull’s campaign.

The anticipation of a head-to-head match was the only real point of tension in an otherwise predictable gubernatorial race. Would Haaland stumble? Would Hull bore the audience stiff, or could he use the platform to invigorate his underdog campaign? It wasn't much, but it provided intrigue in a lopsided race that heavily favors the Democrat in a reliably blue state.

Now, only table scraps remain, and Hull seems disinclined to fight over them. He continues to double down on his pledge not to engage in negative campaigning—another ill-timed strategic choice that gives Haaland a wide berth in the critical final weeks leading up to the start of in-person early voting on October 17.

Hull, a former three-term Mayor of Rio Rancho, frequently points out that he has never run an attack ad and has always won. But treating his past success in Rio Rancho as a blueprint for statewide success is his second major misstep.

In a statewide election featuring dozens of high-stakes, hot-button issues—and where media coverage dictates public perception—direct contrast with your opponent is essential.

Gary Johnson in 1994 did pursue the no negative strategy. The energetic businessman emerged out of nowhere to capture his party’s nomination and ultimately unseat the enfeebled Democratic Governor Bruce King. Johnson famously refused to go negative, but he was a charismatic front-runner introducing a fresh style. An electorate weary of the status quo was eager for change, handing Johnson the governorship not just once, but twice.

However, today’s New Mexico is a vastly different landscape. Partisanship has hardened, a dominant progressive movement has consolidated power in urban centers and the rural population has declined along with their voting power.

That represents a formidable mountain for Hull to climb, particularly given that Haaland entered the race with a massive head start. Knocking her off her stride requires aggressive tactics—a task Hull appears unwilling to undertake.

DO THEY CARE? 

Nixon-Kennedy 1960

It is unfortunate to watch the long-standing tradition of televised gubernatorial debates fade this election cycle, and perhaps for those to come. For years, these face-offs served as shared public events during a campaign. Today, however, mass media is fragmented, and voters are continuously saturated with candidate messaging across social platforms.

As veteran political reporter Rodger Beimer noted, televised debates have largely devolved into candidate platforms designed to generate 15-second viral clips for political ads. 

The real question is: do voters still care? Would they even tune in?

For Haaland, the calculation was simple: no, voters do not care enough to jeopardize her comfortable polling lead. For Hull, the debate was his single best opportunity to counter Beimer's thesis and force voters to pay attention—even if only through a brief sound bite harvested from a hour-long broadcast. In modern campaigning, a single viral moment can rapidly alter the narrative.

Ultimately, Haaland demonstrated the decisiveness her critics claimed she lacked. She allowed the debate negotiations to stall, executed her strategy, and lowered the hammer when the timing favored her. That  reflects composure under pressure—a quality required to govern effectively and avoid being outmaneuvered at the Roundhouse.

THE SIDESHOW

KOB-TV—caught in the middle of the debate dispute—announced it will proceed with its October 8 broadcast. The station plans to question Hull directly while placing on stage an unattended podium to represent Haaland. The resulting visuals will certainly generate a brief flurry on social media, but any impact will quickly fade.

While Haaland may prefer to avoid televised debate formats, both candidates continue to sit for extended media interviews. In a recent video session with the New Mexican, Haaland appeared relaxed and on-message, outlining her platform points concisely, if briefly. The unscripted setting highlighted her personal likability—a trait that has anchored her past campaign successes.

Hull was self-assured and knowledgeable. He presents as a reasonable, middle of the road alternative to Haaland. He could easily be imagined negotiating with the majority Democrats in Santa Fe, but he is slowed by a lack of financial resources to push his personality and message out.

(The candidates for lieutenant governor--Democrat Stephanie Garcia Richard and Republican David Gallegos--held a debate last week. Video here.) 

MORE RACE ANALYSIS 

Joe Monahan (2026)

Returning to the inflection point mentioned at the top, the shift in this race goes beyond the end of the debate controversy; it reflects a broader hardening of voter priorities as Election Day approaches. 

Recent polling indicates a growing number of independent voters are eager to use their ballot to send a message to Donald Trump. That presents a major obstacle for minority Republicans, who cannot build a winning coalition without strong independent support. Meanwhile, economic tailwinds like inflation concerns, alongside international developments, continue to benefit Haaland and top-of-the-ticket Democrats.

This raises a down-ballot question: will Democratic momentum wash away vulnerable GOP legislative candidates? One race to watch is in Albuquerque's Northeast Heights, where Rep. Nicole Chavez—the sole remaining Republican House member representing an area within ABQ city limits—faces a competitive challenge from trial attorney Lisa Curtis. 

While the House 31 district historically leans Republican, former GOP strongholds across Bernalillo County have steadily shifted left over the past decade. The state's largest urban center is now almost entirely represented by Democrats in the House, with Chavez’s district remaining the lone exception. Will that final red footprint remain or succumb to another blue wave? 

Thanks for stopping by. Back here tomorrow with more from La Politica. 

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