Haaland and Hull

How can the Republican candidate for governor run an effective campaign if the industry most critical to their fundraising is not going all-in? That’s the dilemma confronting GOP standard-bearer Gregg Hull.

In his latest financial report covering June 28 through Sept. 7, we count about $300,000 in direct and indirect contributions from the state oil and gas industry that continues generating fortunes in what is one of the longest oil booms in state history. That represents about 30 percent of the $943,000 Hull reported bringing in during the period but is still far short of what he requires from them (and others) to run an effective campaign for the final six weeks. 

Hull's energy-related donations from the booming Permian Basin in SE NM include:

• George & Nancy Brantley (Carlsbad): $24,800

• John Yates (Artesia): $10,000

• Strata Production Company (Roswell): $6,200

• Murphy Petroleum Corp (Roswell): $6,200 

Hull is down to $509,000 in cash compared to Dem nominee Deb Haaland’s $3.4 million—the same amount she raised during the reporting period. Her grand total for the campaign is $17.3 million and she has spent $13.9 million.

Haaland has spent massive amounts to raise that $17 million—anywhere from 30 to 50 percent of her total take, according to consultants. (She has signed a No Fossil Fuel money pledge.)

Haaland's $3.4 million in cash with less than two months before the election may not loom as large had oil and gas not tightened up on Hull. The former mayor of Rio Rancho may have earned their scorn by running against their preferred candidate, ABQ PR executive Doug Turner, who was soundly defeated by Hull in the June primary. 

Longtime GOP fundraiser Andrea Goff of Lea County headed Turner's effort. She has close ties to former southern GOP US Rep. Steve Pearce, who made an oil fortune in the county and now leads the BLM in DC under Trump. During the primary, Turner attended a candidate fundraiser at Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate; Hull did not. Lea County oil money appeared to come with about $37,000 in the latest report--on the light end. 

It's not only the oil crowd apparently curtailing their giving, it's Hull's inability to raise money from other sectors as well. Hull has raised only $1.9 million so far. In '22 the GOP nominee raised $10 million for the primary and general elections. 

Hull may never have had a fighting chance in a blue state that for years has snubbed Republicans, but if the party was to begin a meaningful rebuilding phase, we should have seen it in Hull's campaign reports. 

An outside PAC has been playing but in their first outing, they misspelled the candidate's name.

To his credit, Hull polled at 43 percent to Haaland's 49 in the ABQ Journal late August survey. Some Anti-Haaland sentiment has coalesced around him, but growing from that base with meager funding would be like climbing Wheeler Peak in an hour.

Hull's failure to surprise to the upside means we'll hear more soothing, platitudinous bromides from Haaland, who is America's current beneficiary of dialing for identity dollars. The $17 million raised comes from thousands of mostly out-of-state donors infatuated with crowning her the nation's first female Native American governor.

Ironically, the wealthiest New Mexico campaign ever is premised on making the omnipresent welfare state more relatable to voters. By anchoring TV spots like "Family" and "Defend" to her personal struggles Haaland hopes to persuade suburban swing voters around ABQ concerned with the cost of living while mobilizing low-income families statewide. 

What that strategy does not do is lay down markers for transformational change in a state that has become far too comfortable in lagging others in every imaginable social metric. But Haaland isn't about to give voters something they aren't asking for. She'll leave that to Gregg Hull.

PETE'S ELEPHANT

Buttigieg in Las Cruces

The elephant in the room at that Las Cruces rally that drew around 600 to hear possible '28 presidential hopeful Pete Buttigieg tout Deb Haaland and US Rep. Gabe Vasquez stood there silently. But if it could speak, it would ask: "Is the US ready to elect an openly gay man president?"

For some, it's no elephant at all. Cyndi Hiber of Indivisible Las Cruces said: “[Buttigieg] is down to earth... I like the fact that he is a family man. He seems very capable and intelligent.”

That could very well be the attitude among Democratic primary voters, but the culture wars that would ensue in red and purple states cannot be ignored. The first Dem primary state in '28 is South Carolina, and New Mexico follows about a month later, making it a must-stop on the White House wannabe circuit.

This is the Home of New Mexico politics.