Hull, Turner and Rodriguez

Gregg Hull is claiming that he now has the momentum in the chase for the GOP gubernatorial nomination and there are plenty of reasons to believe him.

Hull scored an easy win (57 percent) at the March GOP preprimary convention, has led his two opponents convincingly in two independent polls and over the weekend added an important straw poll win. 

The April 18-19 Emerson College survey had Hull at 21 percent, Duke Rodriguez at 10 and Doug Turner at 9. Sixty percent said they were undecided. 

The ABQ Journal poll conducted April 24-May 1 affirmed Hull's lead, giving the former three term Rio Rancho mayor 30 percent to Turner's 21 and Rodriguez's 9. Forty-percent said they were undecided.

Then over the weekend a straw poll was conducted among members of the politically conservative Legacy Church in ABQ at an event that featured questioning of the three hopefuls. Hull announced on the socials that he had walked away with 58 percent of the congregants backing him, Turner getting 25 percent and Rodriguez at 15. He said:

We had strong support in the straw poll at the end of the night—momentum is building.

Rev. Smotherman

The evangelical church is one of the largest and most successful in the state. It was built from scratch by the Reverend Steve Smotherman who is as devout in his conservatism as he is in his spiritual beliefs and is a proven force to be reckoned with in Republican politics. 

In July of 2022 we reported how he dealt a critical blow to the general election hopes of GOP Guv nominee Mark Ronchetti over the candidate's stance on abortion.

That Hull, who has not at all emphasized socially conservative issues nor embraced Donald Trump, performed so well in the Legacy poll is yet another shot across the bow of his rivals. 

Hull's bio says he was active in church youth ministries for 20 years. He would be the first governor since Democrat Bruce King in the 1990's without a college degree. Before politics Hull was a businessman/entrepreneur.

Hull, 59, has also picked up the endorsement of the Santa Fe New Mexican in the liberal north where there are fewer Republicans but it was another boost in helping persuade the many undecided voters to go his way. 

The Oklahoma native who came to the state 35 years ago is indeed on a roll except when it comes to crucial fund-raising. It has been anemic with Republican enthusiasm for the election in the cellar and donations hard to come by. Also holding up Hull is that massive 40 percent of undecided Republicans in the ABQ Journal survey.

ABEYTA ANALYSIS 

Nevertheless longtime Democratic analyst and lobbyist Sisto Abeyta says while roadblocks remain Hull is poised for a win:

As a former three term Mayor of Rio Rancho he has worked across the state with other public officials for years. He is the best known personally of the three candidates which is why his lack of money is not taking him out. His solid voter base in Rio Rancho combined with his history in GOP circles is making all the difference.  

Hull's website lists a variety of GOP endorsements from current and former city officials from around New Mexico.

Abeyta says Turner has turned in decent numbers but "may have started too late" and that the Rodriguez situation speaks for itself--his poor polling and a string of controversies has stopped him in his tracks, despite deploying personal money to outraise and outspend Turner and Hull. 

Abeyta believes the high number of undecided voters in the Journal survey not only reveals how widely unknown the contenders are but points to a low turnout for the June 2 election: 

A low turnout would work to Hull's benefit because that Rio Rancho base is ready to be tapped. They are not going away. 

Veteran Republican analyst and campaign expert Jamie Estrada says it appears Hull "is a few good TV spots from going over the top."

While Turner had a major fund-raiser at Trump's Mar a Lago estate last week (Trump was not in attendance) and is largely bankrolled by the oil and gas industry, Hull has not embraced either Trump or big oil. He is still expected to have enough cash to have media impact but cash flow remains a danger if Turner can apply pressure. 

If Hull is right about having seized the momentum Turner's polling will show it and negative campaigning in the low key primary could be the next chapter before a victor emerges Election Night. 

In a debate last week the candidates continued to play soft shoe with each other, rarely contrasting their positions. With Hull claiming he now has a head of steam, that approach could quickly go by the wayside.  

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.